1. 5th International Research Conference on Social Security Warsaw, Poland, 5-7 March 2007 Social security and the labour market: A mismatch? Neoliberal fatalism? A fresh look at the employment-income equality tradeoff Audrey Koulinsky Nadine Richez-Battesti

2. Neoliberal theory : Employment-Income equality & Employment-Social Benefits tradeoff as an economic fatality Versus Variety of capitalism theory : Employment-Income equality & Employment-Social Benefits tradeoff not homogeneous between countries

3. Wages of men unequality, D5/D1 and D9/D5, 1979-1995 Source : à partir des données de lOCDE, perspectives de lemploi (1996).

4. Social Benefits rate, Employment rate, Disparity index, Unemployment rate Source : à partir de données tirées de OCDE Economic Outlook Database.

5. Unemployment rate by level of men workers qualification Unqualified / qualified men workers unemployment rate Unemployment rate variation 19791990 France1.402.02+0.62 Allemagne (RFA)2.252.91+0.66 Royaume-Uni2.492.68+0.19 Italie0.471.04+0.57 Etats-Unis2.062.51+0.45

6. Unemployment rate by level of men and women workers qualification Unqualified / qualified workers unemployment rate Unemployment rate variation 19922000 Royaume-Uni3.054.29+1.24 Autriche2.663.57+0.91 Allemagne2.433.33+0.90 Belgique3.423.88+0.45 France2.492.75+0.26 Italie1.531.64+0.11 Suède2.582.66+0.08 Finlande2.502.49-0.01 Grèce1.251.18-0.07 Espagne1.681.52-0.16 Danemark2.742.54-0.20 Portugal1.971.46-0.51 Irlande4.443.87-0.57 Pays-Bas2.772.19-0.59

7. Neoliberal theory seems to explain the German case only : - Low and stagnant income unequality - Low but strongly increasing unemployment rate But not the North American case : - High and strongly increasing income unequality - High unemployment rate till 1985 decreasing after then Nor the Swedish case : - Low and stagnant income unequality - Low unemployment rate till 1990, strongly increasing till 1998, and strongly decreasing after then EUROSCLEROSIS

8. Estimated long run relationship Employment rate = c + a.Disparity index – b.Social benefits rate Employment-Income equality tradeoff Employment-Social benefits tradeoff

9. Estimation results German model estimation was unsuccessfull Employment-Income equality and Employment-Social benefits tradeoff exist but are stronger in the USA than in Sweden Sweden and United-States evolute on two different levels of equilibrium United-States low employment, low income equality and low social benefits rate Sweden high employment, high income equality and high social benefits rate high level equilibriumlow level equilibrium