1. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 1 Global Precipitation Products for Data-Denied Regions Stanley Q. Kidder Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research Colorado State University

2. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 2 Importance u Detection of precipitation is critical for the success of military operations. Air operations at sea or over land, mobilization of heavy equipment on third world roads, operation of laser-based systems, and deployment of resources in flood-prone regions all rely on timely and accurate prediction of rainfall events.

3. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 3 History u Because of its importance, precipitation has been estimated from satellite observation since the earliest weather satellites u Two (of many) sources of information about these early attempts: t Barrett, E. C., and D. W. Martin, 1981: The Use of Satellite Data in Rainfall Monitoring. Academic Press, New York. t Kidder, S. Q., and T. H. Vonder Haar, 1995: Satellite Meteorology: An Introduction. Academic Press, San Diego.

4. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 4 Current “Real Time” Precipitation Sources u The University of California Irvine PERSIANN project (Sorooshian et al. 2000) (See http://chrs.web.uci.edu/persiann/)http://chrs.web.uci.edu/persiann/ t uses GEO IR and visible imagery in a neural network system to produce global precipitation grids. The PERSIANN system has since been extended to use TRMM, NOAA and DMSP microwave data to “calibrate” higher resolution IR data.

5. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 5 Current “Real Time” Precipitation Sources u The Climate Prediction Center’s CMORPH/QMORPH (Joyce et al. 2004) (See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/janowiak/cmorph_description.html) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/janowiak/cmorph_description.html t Based on microwave observations calibrated with TRMM data. Uses IR winds to move raining pixels between satellite obervations. QMORPH is the forecaster product, and moves precipitating pixels forward in time to the hour or half hour.

6. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 6 Current “Real Time” Precipitation Sources u CIRA’s Blended Rain Rate (http://cat.cira.colostate.edu) Being developed for operational implementation at NESDIShttp://cat.cira.colostate.edu t Blends data from currently six satellites (see next slide) t Uses a histogram-matching technique to make it appear that all observations are from the same instrument t No motion.

7. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 7 Current Blended RR Satellite Suite

8. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 8 Regularly Spaced Constellation

9. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 9 Current “Real Time” Precipitation Sources u NASA Goddard’s TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) (Huffman et al. 2007) (See http://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.html)http://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.html t Combines TMI, AMSR-E, and AMSU-B/MHS microwave measurements. t Gaps are filled using IR data. t No motion t Latency is an issue (~5 hours)

10. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 10 Current “Real Time” Precipitation Sources u The NESDIS Hydro-Estimator (Scofield and Kuligowski, 2003) (See http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.php) http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.php t Uses GEO IR data in a single channel algorithm t GFS model low level humidity estimates to adjust for sub-cloud evaporation over arid regions. t No microwave data are used.

11. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 11 Current “Real Time” Precipitation Sources u The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Blended-Satellite Precipitation Technique (Turk and Miller 2005) (See http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/rain.cgi)http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/rain.cgi u uses GEO IR observations, calibrated using passive microwave observations, plus the microwave observations themselves (when available) to produce 3-hr rainfall accumulations.

12. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 12 Summary of the Current State u IR provides frequent, high-resolution observations but IR looks only at the outside of the cloud; precipitation must be inferred. u Microwaves view the precipitation-size droplets or crystals inside the cloud, but at lower frequency and resolution. u Current products are mostly aimed at instantaneous rainfall rates, whereas forecasters need accumulated rainfall u To calculate accumulation—given the motion of raining systems—some sort of propagation scheme must be employed

13. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 13 QMORPH 5-Day (6-hour)

14. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 14 QMORPH 1-Day (hourly)

15. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 15 Blended RR 5-Day (6-hourly)

16. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 16 Blended RR 1-Day (hourly)

17. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 17 5-Day Comparison

18. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 18 1-Day Comparison

19. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 19 From Kelly Howell’s Thesis Threshold = 0.1 mm hr -1 TPW might be useful for determining how long precipitation lasts

20. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 20 What Is Needed u 3 hr accumulations u Short-term forecast (nearcast) u Motion u Orographic enhancement

21. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 21 Blended Total Precipitable Water

22. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 22 06Z 14 Oct 2009 2505075 mm Blended TPW (mm) and 850 hPa GFS Winds

23. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 23 Elevation (m) 01000200030004000 Terrain

24. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 24 ORI  TPW * V  H Orographic Rain Index TPW = Blended Total Precipitable Water advected to product time V = 850 hPa GFS wind vector at product time H = Terrain height V  H  terrain-induced vertical velocity ORI  moisture * lift Units = mm * m/s

25. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 25 Observed precipitation (inches) 06Z Tue 13 Oct  15Z Wed 14 Oct 00Z 14 Oct 2009 250 +050100150200

26. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 26 Observed precipitation (inches) 06Z Tue 13 Oct  15Z Wed 14 Oct 00Z 14 Oct 2009

27. DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at Colorado State University VTC 12 September 2011 27 Global Precipitation Products for Data-Denied Regions u We propose to develop a blended rain accumulation product which addresses some of these problems. In outline, the product might be constructed as follows: 1. The instantaneous satellite rain rate observations, both infrared and microwave, would be gathered for an integration period of perhaps three hours. (Though at first only microwave observations would be used.) 2. The instantaneous observations would be “calibrated” using histogram adjustment to a reference instrument, so that artifacts due to differing instruments would be lessened. 3. The rain observations would be propagated in time using model winds, and perhaps TPW values, which could possibly be used to estimate changes in intensity of the observed rain rates in time. 4. Rain accumulations during the analysis period would be calculated for each grid box of the analysis domain. 5. Terrain induced rain would be added to the accumulations. 6. Model forecasted rain accumulations could be used to modify/constrain the satellite- estimated accumulations.