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Latino Profile of Los Angeles City and County, California, and the United States Prepared for the Angelinos for a Better Future Initiative of Southwest.

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Presentation on theme: "Latino Profile of Los Angeles City and County, California, and the United States Prepared for the Angelinos for a Better Future Initiative of Southwest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Latino Profile of Los Angeles City and County, California, and the United States Prepared for the Angelinos for a Better Future Initiative of Southwest Voter Registration Education Project by the William C. Velasquez Institute Presentation Antonio Gonzalez President William C. Velasquez Institute and Southwest Voter Registration Education Project 2914 N. Main St Los Angeles, CA 91723 Phone: 323-222-2217 (WCVI) Phone: 323-343-9299 (SVREP) Email: agonzalez@wcvi.orgagonzalez@wcvi.org Email: agonzalez@svrep.orgagonzalez@svrep.org

2 Los Angeles City and County Detailed Information

3 Los Angeles County – Population by Majority Race/Ethnicity

4 Los Angeles County – Latino Registration Percentage

5 Los Angeles City – Population by Majority Race/Ethnicity

6 Los Angeles City – Latino Registration Percentage

7 Registration by Los Angeles County, City, and City Council District Los Angeles Region Total Reg Latino RegLatino Reg % County 3,948,813 1,026,189 25.99% City 1,436,351 338,57023.57% CD 1 51,796 28,13354.32% CD 2 113,987 17,94415.74% CD 3 115,949 15,56913.43% CD 4 112,410 13,08011.64% CD 5 152,275 7,0364.62% CD 6 64,329 29,82046.36% CD 7 65,397 35,88554.87% CD 8 101,935 18,47718.13% CD 9 63,868 24,26938.00% CD 10 85,530 17,70720.70% CD 11 143,155 13,3649.34% CD 12 123,547 17,61814.26% CD 13 70,226 24,63335.08% CD 14 80,990 44,64955.13% CD 15 90,957 30,38633.41% Data Source: William C. Velasquez Institute; Registration Current as of January 2008

8 Selected 2001 and 2005 Election Results for Los Angeles City by City Council District Data Source: Los Angeles City Clerk. Note: 2001 and 2005 City Council Districts Different. Major Differences between CD 6 (new Latino Seat), 2, 5, and 11. All others similar. Los Angeles Region 2005 Mayor - Villaraigosa 2005 - Villaraigosa % 2005 Mayor - Hahn 2001 Mayor - Villaraigosa 2001 Villaraigosa % 2001 Mayor - Hahn 2001 City Atty - Delgadillo 2001 Delgadillo % 2001 City Atty - Feuer City289,11658.63%203,968264,61146.47%304,791284,33752.39%258,428 CD 1 15,564 75.18% 5,13716,193 73.28% 5,90514,496 69.07% 6,490 CD 2 19,917 54.50% 16,62717,091 45.22% 20,70520,032 55.00% 16,390 CD 3 20,545 52.69% 18,44916,802 37.74% 27,71720,440 47.71% 22,401 CD 4 19,421 57.62% 14,28620,557 51.89% 19,06216,066 42.73% 21,529 CD 5 25,516 53.95% 21,77724,473 45.12% 29,76916,294 31.04% 36,201 CD 6 15,343 67.71% 7,31623,128 45.84% 27,32322,070 46.09% 25,811 CD 7 16,792 70.49% 7,02917,268 66.24% 8,79917,868 71.49% 7,127 CD 8 20,333 60.43% 13,3169,622 24.98% 28,89623,364 64.94% 12,615 CD 9 12,558 67.37% 6,08310,100 45.98% 11,86414,327 70.18% 6,087 CD 10 18,598 60.56% 12,11412,497 37.80% 20,56319,150 61.67% 11,902 CD 11 30,627 56.97% 23,12923,038 43.31% 30,15219,536 38.46% 31,262 CD 12 20,963 48.88% 21,92116,686 32.58% 34,53124,438 49.60% 24,836 CD 13 16,099 66.29% 8,18818,947 63.03% 11,11115,194 53.49% 13,211 CD 14 25,090 73.62% 8,99123,330 71.27% 9,40521,906 69.61% 9,565 CD 15 11,750 37.47% 19,60514,879 43.93% 18,98919,156 59.57% 13,001

9 Upcoming Election Information

10 Super Tuesday Latino Vote in Democratic Presidential Primary Latino Vote by Selected State and Candidate Percentage State Total State Respondents Latino % of Total State Respondents Estimated Latino Respondents** Latino Respondent Margin of Error %*** Clinton %Obama % Arizona121818%2196.62%55%41% California187929%5454.20%69%29% Connecticut11786%7111.63%43%53% Illinois118117%2016.92%49%50% Massachusetts13655%6811.86%56%36% Nevada*109815%1657.64%64%26% New Jersey129810%1308.60%73%26% New Mexico118134%4024.89%56%36% New York139312%1677.58%68%30% *Note: Nevada Results of an Entrance Poll **Latino N Estimate Based on Percentage of Total Respondents ***Margin of Error Based on Estimated Latino Respondent Size Original Data Source: CNN Exit Poll. Percentages may not add up to 100% when all categories or candidates are not shown. Numbers based on preliminary exit poll results. How the poll was conducted: The National Election Pool Exit Poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. Members of the pool are ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC. The polling places are a stratified probability sample of the state. In addition, absentee and/or early voters were interviewed in a pre-election telephone poll; results from the phone poll were combined with results from the exit poll. The combination reflects approximately the correct proportion of absentee voters and election day voters.

11 Latino Vote in Democratic Presidential Primary

12 California Total and Latino Votes Cast in 2000, 2004, and 2008 Presidential Primaries March 2000 Primary March 2004 Primary February 2008 Primary* Total Change from 2004- 2008 Percentage Change from 2004-2008 Total Votes Cast for Democratic Presidential Candidates 3,272,0293,107,629 4,259,0311,151,402+37% Latino Votes Cast for Democratic Presidential Candidates 556,245 (17% of Total Dem) 498,474 (16% of Total Dem) 1,235,119 (29% of Total Dem) 736,645+148% Total Votes Cast for Republican Presidential Candidates 4,153,7022,216,3512,443,153226,802+10% Latino Votes Cast for Republican Presidential Candidates 332,296 (8 % of Total Rep) 127,662 (5.8% of Total Rep) 317,610 (13% of Total Rep) 189,948+149% Data Sources: Total Votes Cast for Democrats and Republicans taken from California Secretary of State website. Latino Votes cast for President calculated by applying various exit poll figures from CNN (2008), NY Times (2000, 2004), and WCVI (2004) to the Secretary of State totals. *2008 Total Votes Cast current as of Monday, February 11, 2008. 2008 Latino Vote calculated from Media Exit Poll percentages applied to California Secretary of State Totals.

13 California Latino Voter Polling Trends for Democratic Presidential Primary California Latino Voter Polling Trends for Democratic Presidential Primary, in Chronological Order Poll (Date- Author)Clinton %Obama % 4/13/2007 - Field Poll59%18% 8/17/2007 - Field Poll63%14% 10/26/07 - Field Poll52%16% 1/13/2008 - Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico61%19% 1/22/2008 - Field Poll59%19% 1/26/2008 - Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico59%19% 2/5/08-Exit Poll69%29%

14 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Battleground States

15 2008 U.S. Senate Races - Close Congressional Quarterly Ratings

16 2004 Registration, Turnout, and Latino Potential by Close Senate Race State 2004 Total Reg 2004 Total Turnout 2004 Total Turnout % 2004 Latino Reg 2004 Latino Turnout 2004 Latino Share of Reg % 2004 Latino Turnout % 2004 Latino Share of Total Turnout Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004 Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004 % Colorado 2,307,000 2,097,00090.90% 204,000 165,0008.8%80.9%7.9% 157,00043.49% Louisiana 2,413,000 2,067,00085.66% 19,000 16,0000.8%84.2%0.8% 11,00036.67% Maine 824,000 736,00089.32% 7,000 0.8%100.0%1.0% 2,00022.22% Minnesota 3,080,000 2,887,00093.73% 53,000 49,0001.7%92.5%1.7% 20,00027.40% New Hampshire 716,000 677,00094.55% 5,000 0.7%100.0%0.7% 4,00044.44% North Carolina 4,292,000 3,639,00084.79% 44,000 27,0001.0%61.4%0.7% 65,00059.63% South Dakota 425,000 378,00088.94% 4,000 0.9%100.0%1.1% 2,00033.33% Texas 9,681,000 7,950,00082.12% 2,170,000 1,533,00022.4%70.6%19.3% 1,518,00041.16% TOTAL23,738,00020,431,00086.07%2,506,0001,806,00010.56%72.07%8.40%1,779,00041.52%

17 2006 U.S. House Election Results Party by Margin of Victory - All

18 2006 U.S. House Election Results Party by Margin of Victory – Close Elections

19 Close Margins of Victory in 2006 Less Than 5% Democrats 1.Connecticut 2 - Joe Courtney - 0.0% 2.Georgia 12 - John Barrow - 0.6% 3.Pennsylvania 8 - Patrick J. Murphy - 0.6% 4.Georgia 8 - Jim Marshall - 1.0% 5.Florida 16 - Tim Mahoney - 1.8% 6.Wisconsin 8 - Steve Kagen - 2.1% 7.Kentucky 3 - John Yarmuth - 2.4% 8.New York 19 - John Hall - 2.4% 9.New Hampshire 1 - Carol Shea-Porter - 2.7% 10.Iowa 2 - Dave Loebsack - 2.8% 11.Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - 3.5% 12.Florida 22 - Ron Klein - 3.8% 13.Pennsylvania 4 - Jason Altmire - 3.8% 14.Arizona 5 - Harry E. Mitchell - 4.0% 15.Indiana 9 - Baron P. Hill - 4.5% Republicans 1.Florida 13 - Vern Buchanan - 0.2% 2.North Carolina 8 - Robin Hayes - 0.2% 3.New Mexico 1 - Heather A. Wilson - 0.4% 4.Ohio 15 - Deborah Pryce - 0.5% 5.Wyoming AL - Barbara Cubin - 0.5% 6.Ohio 2 - Jean Schmidt - 1.1% 7.New Jersey 7 - Mike Ferguson - 1.4% 8.Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach - 1.4% 9.New York 25 - James T. Walsh - 1.6% 10.Nevada 3 - Jon Porter - 1.9% 11.Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave - 2.5% 12.Illinois 6 - Peter Roskam - 2.8% 13.Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake - 2.8% 14.New York 29 - John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. - 3.0% 15.Washington 8 - Dave Reichert - 3.0% 16.California 4 - John T. Doolittle - 3.1% 17.Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays - 3.4% 18.Michigan 7 - Tim Walberg - 3.9% 19.New York 26 - Thomas M. Reynolds - 4.0% 20.Ohio 1 - Steve Chabot - 4.4%

20 2010 Gubernatorial Elections

21 2010 U.S. Senate Elections

22 California Demographic Trends

23 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004. Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations. California Population Comparison by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050 Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

24 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004. Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations. Due to aggregation of Hispanic figures, percentages do not equal 100%. California Population Shares by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050 Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

25 Growth of Total California Population by Ethnic Group, (2000-2050) Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004. Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations. Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

26 Composition of Total population of California by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050, May 2004 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004. Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations. Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

27 California Total and Latino Registration Comparison by Assembly District 2004-2007

28 Select National Latino Demographic and Election Information

29 Geographic AreaNL White NL White % Hispanic or Latino Origin Latino % Combined Minority Combined Minority % TOTAL United States202,266,11266.43%45,018,77214.79%102,213,01133.57%304,479,123.California16,327,35443.64%13,261,79635.45%21,086,66056.36%37,414,014.Texas11,548,25448.53%8,438,91835.46%12,247,07351.47%23,795,327.Florida11,250,59061.37%3,689,25620.12%7,081,59438.63%18,332,184.New York11,834,70460.35%3,214,58116.39%7,776,49939.65%19,611,203.Illinois8,484,78665.35%1,904,81914.67%4,497,90534.65%12,982,691.Arizona3,751,78159.80%1,825,48129.10%2,521,60340.20%6,273,384.New Jersey5,528,71462.51%1,388,76715.70%3,315,32637.49%8,844,040.Colorado3,475,20171.70%950,89519.62%1,371,41728.30%4,846,618.New Mexico857,00143.11%870,00743.76%1,131,15756.89%1,988,158.Georgia5,598,30859.07%713,8297.53%3,878,96540.93%9,477,273 Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race. Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Total

30 Geographic AreaNL White NL White % Hispanic or Latino Origin Latino % Combined Minority Combined Minority % TOTAL United States202,266,11266.43%45,018,77214.79%102,213,01133.57%304,479,123.New Mexico857,00143.11%870,00743.76%1,131,15756.89%1,988,158.Texas11,548,25448.53%8,438,91835.46%12,247,07351.47%23,795,327.California16,327,35443.64%13,261,79635.45%21,086,66056.36%37,414,014.Arizona3,751,78159.80%1,825,48129.10%2,521,60340.20%6,273,384.Nevada1,516,13459.11%620,38524.19%1,048,72440.89%2,564,858.Florida11,250,59061.37%3,689,25620.12%7,081,59438.63%18,332,184.Colorado3,475,20171.70%950,89519.62%1,371,41728.30%4,846,618.New York11,834,70460.35%3,214,58116.39%7,776,49939.65%19,611,203.New Jersey5,528,71462.51%1,388,76715.70%3,315,32637.49%8,844,040.Illinois8,484,78665.35%1,904,81914.67%4,497,90534.65%12,982,691 Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race. Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Percent

31 2006 United States Latino Population by State Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007.

32 2006 United States Latino Population Percent by State Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007.

33 2004 United States Latino Unregistered Citizen Voting Age Population by State Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.US Census Bureau

34 2004 United States Latino Registration Percent by State Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.US Census Bureau

35 Latino Voter Registration, National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008 Projection Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.US Census Bureau

36 Latino Votes Cast, National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008 Projection Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.US Census Bureau

37 Latino Elected Officials by State: Largest Latino States – Gains Since 1996 State19962007Change Texas1,6872,170+28.6% California6931,163+67.8% New Mexico623657+5.5% Arizona298354+18.8% Colorado161160-0.6% Florida72131+81.9% New Jersey33103+212.1% Illinois4197+136.5% New York4064+60% Other States95230+142.1% TOTAL3,7865,129+37% Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund

38 Latino Elected Officials by Level of Office in 2007 Federal: 26 Statewide Officials: 6 State Legislators: 238 County Officials: 512 Municipal Officials: 1,640 Judicial/Law Enforcement Officials: 685 School Board/Education Officials: 1,847 Special District Officials: 175

39 Latino Elected Officials by State: Largest Latino States Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund

40 Latino Elected Officials by State: New Latino Gains Since 1996 Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund


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