1. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Actual vs. Modeled Operation of Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines in the Pacific Northwest Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR August 21, 2008

2. July 17, 2008 2 Excessive Shutdown Disorder: condition where modeled operation of CCCTs exhibit more stops (and starts) than actual operation.

3. July 17, 2008 3 Q: How do you know if you have excessive shutdown disorder? A: Get EPA’s Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data.

4. July 17, 2008 4 Pacific Northwest CCCT Dataset EPA CEMS Data: 2006 – Q1 2008 Hourly Operating Data: 19,704 hours Generating Unit Data: –Aggregate to plant level Gross Generation (in MW) –For gas turbines only (not for HRSGs) Fuel Input (in MMBtu) –Fuel Factor (i.e., Hourly Fuel Input / Max(Fuel Input)) as proxy for CCCT capacity factor

5. July 17, 2008 5 Northwest CCCTs in CEMS Database Big Hanaford Chehalis Generation Facility Coyote Springs 1 Coyote Springs 2 Encogen Generating Station Frederickson Power LP Goldendale Generating Station Hermiston 1 Hermiston 2 Hermiston Power Plant Klamath Cogeneration Project Port Westward Rathdrum Power, LLC River Road

6. July 17, 2008 6 Coyote Springs 1: Actual Operation in 2007

7. July 17, 2008 7 Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Operation in 2007

8. July 17, 2008 8 Coyote Springs 1: Actual Week Summer

9. July 17, 2008 9 Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Week Summer

10. July 17, 2008 10 Hermiston Power: Actual Operation in 2007

11. July 17, 2008 11 Hermiston Power: Modeled Operation in 2007

12. July 17, 2008 12 Klamath Cogen: Actual Operation in 2007

13. July 17, 2008 13 Klamath Cogen: Modeled Operation in 2007

14. July 17, 2008 14 More modeled starts per year…

15. July 17, 2008 15 Much shorter modeled runtimes…

16. July 17, 2008 16 Q: Why is excessive shutdown an important problem? A: Because it impacts: – wholesale power market price forecasts; and – power system carbon dioxide forecasts

17. July 17, 2008 17 AURORA CCCT Commitment and Dispatch Parameters 5 th PlanProposedSource/Comment Minimum Up Time24 hours17 hoursEPA CEMS 2006-2008 Minimum Down Time6 hours3 hoursEPA CEMS 2006-2008 Minimum Capacity.40 2 x 1.80 1 x 1 Unit SpecificEPA CEMS 2006-2008 Ramp Rate100% (1 hour) 33% (3 hours) EPA CEMS 2006-2008 Startup Cost--??Warm-up fuel, wear & tear? Shutdown Cost--??Cool-down fuel, wear & tear?

18. July 17, 2008 18 MIN UP Estimation

19. July 17, 2008 19 Coyote Springs 1: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 30

20. July 17, 2008 20 Chehalis: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 78

21. July 17, 2008 21 PNW CCCTs: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 1,114

22. July 17, 2008 22 PNW CCCTs: Actual Up Time Histogram N = 759 Min Up = 17 hours

23. July 17, 2008 23 MIN Down Estimation

24. July 17, 2008 24 PNW CCCTs: Actual Down Time Histogram N = 1,113

25. July 17, 2008 25 PNW CCCTs: Actual Down Time Histogram N = 749 Min Down = 3 hours

26. July 17, 2008 26 MIN Capacity Estimation

27. July 17, 2008 27 Coyote Springs 1: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 14,180 hours)

28. July 17, 2008 28 Big Hanaford: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 4,964)

29. July 17, 2008 29 Chehalis: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 9,601 hours)

30. July 17, 2008 30 PNW CCCTs: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level Curves

31. July 17, 2008 31 Ramp Rate Estimation

32. July 17, 2008 32 Coyote Springs 1: Ramp Rate Illustration

33. July 17, 2008 33 Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > =.85

34. July 17, 2008 34 Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > =.90

35. July 17, 2008 35 Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > =.95

36. July 17, 2008 36 Next Steps: Firm-up existing unit and new technology operating parameters Estimate Start-up and Shut-down costs Use AURORA’s new “shutdown penalty” to adjust modeled CCCT operation

37. July 17, 2008 37 Cycling Parameters… 5 th PlanProposed Cycling Capacity67% Cycling Heat Rate1.6 Cycling Start-up Cost$2.03/MW-week

38. July 17, 2008 38 Duct-firing Parameters… 5 th PlanProposed Cycling Capacity~ 2-20 MW Cycling Heat Rate9,500 Btu/kWh