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Economic Calendar April 15-16, 2015 Leonard Rivera.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Calendar April 15-16, 2015 Leonard Rivera."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Calendar April 15-16, 2015 Leonard Rivera

2 Topics MBA Mortgage Application Index Empire State Manufacturing Survey Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Housing Market Index Crude Inventories Federal Reserves Beige Book Treasury International Capital Jobless Claims Housing Starts & Building Permits Natural Gas Inventories Commodities Currencies Equity Markets

3 MBA Mortgage Application Index April 9 – 15, 2015PriorActualReaction Composite Index0.4%-2.3%Bad Purchase Index7.0%-3.0%Bad Refinance Index-3.0%-2.0%Neutral Leading indicator Provides a gauge for housing demand and economic momentum Consumers are not confident in their finances to buy a house

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5 Empire State Manufacturing Survey March 16 – April 15, 2015 PriorConsensus Consensus Range ActualReaction General Business Conditions Index - Level 6.907.03.0 to 10.2-1.19Bad Actual did not make consensus because it’s lower Weekness in exports because of the strong dollar and soft global demand are major factors behind the result Manufacturers in New York state only

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7 Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization March 16 – April 15, 2015PriorConsensusConsensus Range ActualReaction Production0.1%-0.3%-0.9% to 0.3%-0.6% Bad Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 78.9%78.7%78.1% to 79.2%78.4% Bad Manufacturing-0.2%0.2%-0.1% to 0.4%0.1% Bad We are not growing as much as we are expecting This month's number is soft and will hinder the Fed to make policy changes The market likes to see healthy numbers because that translates to higher corporate profit

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9 Housing Market Index March 16 – April 15, 2015 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range ActualReaction Housing Market Index 53525553 to 5756Good The market and the builders are optimistic about housing It’s a gauge for economic momentum

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11 Crude Inventories April 9 – 15, 2015PriorActualReaction Crude Oil Inventories10.9 M barrels1.3 M barrelsGood Gasoline0.8 M barrels-2.1 M barrels- Distillates-0.3 M barrels2.0 M barrels- Gas prices have a chance to go up in the United States It shows in the current price of the oil

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13 Federal Reserves Beige Book Released every six weeks Manufacturing activity was mixed, hurt by the soaring value of the dollar Lower gas prices and better weather was fueling consumer sales. Retailer outlook is optimistic Non-Financial firms saw rising activity across all districts Agricultural condition worsened slightly across the nation due to cold winter and drought Lower oil prices are causing lay-offs

14 Treasury International Capital PriorPrior RevisedActualReaction Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities -$27.2 B- $27.4 B$9.8 BGood Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries at $1,224 billion vs $1,223 billion for China The US is attracting foreign investment

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16 Jobless Claims Week of April 11, 2015 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range ActualReaction New Claims - Level 281K282K280K 275K to 290K 294KNeutral 4-Week Moving Avg. - Level 282.25 K 282.50K 282.75K- New Claims - Change 14K15K 12K - Initial Claims moved higher but still remain favorable Lagging indicator – the current growth is not reflected in this indicator

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18 Housing Starts & Building Permits March 2015 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range ActualReaction Starts – Level - SAAR 0.897 M0.908 M1.040 M 0.950M to 1.120M 0.926 M Bad Permits – Level - SAAR 1.092 M1.102M1.085 M1.010M to 1.150M 1.039 M Bad The latest data will likely keep the Fed on the loose side in the near term The weather in the northeast has negatively affected the housing market but it’s slowly improving

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20 Natural Gas Inventories April 10, 2015PriorActualReaction Weekly Change15 bcf63 bcfNeutral Lagging indicator The higher inventory will lead to a lower price

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22 Oil Spread $6.91

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27 Equity Markets

28 Thank you.


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