Presentation on theme: "The External Environment for Developing Countries May 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group."— Presentation transcript:
The External Environment for Developing Countries May 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
First quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside across the OECD... real GDP growth, percent saar
...but step-up in inflation may pressure growth globally in coming quarters U.S. CPI, Euro Area HICP, median developing- country CPI, ch% y/y Source: National Sources through Thomson/Datastream. Euro Area Developing countries United States
Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations. U.S. GDP for Q1-2008 surprises to the upside at 0.9% (saar) growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net exports Change in Stocks Government Consumption Fixed Investment
Households reticent to spend as wage growth slows... confidence ebbs Personal income and consumption expenditures, ch% saar Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Personal consumption expenditure Personal income
U.S. inflation underpinned by food, fuels, and imports under a sliding dollar Headline CPI, PPI- and Import price indexes, ch% 3mma y/y Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PPI Import price CPI
Source: Japan Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations. Japan Q1-GDP surprises to the upside (3.3%) on exports and consumption growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net exports Fixed Investment Consumption Government Change in Stocks
Japan’s exports and production take a leg down in April goods export volumes [R], IP manufacturing [L], ch% saar Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream. Exports [R] Production [L]
Japan’s manufacturers and households turn more pessimistic Tankan business conditions [left]; Tokyo consumer confidence [right] Source: Bank of Japan and Cabinet Office. Tankan (left) Consumer confidence (right )
Source: Eurostat and DECPG calculations. Euro Area Q1-GDP: powered by investment and growth in Germany growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net exports Change in Stocks Fixed Investment Government Consumption
European consumer spending continues in the doldrums through April retail sales volumes, ch% 3mma year over year Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.
HICP near record highs pushed by energy costs HICP [left]; HICP energy [right], ch% year on year HICP [L] HICP Energy [R] Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.
Indo-Sino trade continues on rapid growth course goods exports: millions U.S. dollars Source: U.N. COMTRADE Database through WITS. China exports to India India exports to China
Chinese yuan continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar in real terms real bilateral exchange rates, ch% year-on- year Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations. Real yuan / Euro XR Real yuan / USD XR
Euro Area exports make some headway despite strength of the euro dollar per euro [L]; Euro Zone export volume [R], ch% saar Source: Eurostat and Thomson/Datastream. Dollar per Euro [L] Euro Area Exports [R]
Oil prices soar on expectations of tight markets $/ bbl million bbl WB Oil price [L scale] OECD stocks [R] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
Distillate prices rise on ultra-low sulfur diesel constraints $/bbl Crude (WTI) Gasoline Distillate Price differentials relative to crude Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX May 21 2008 $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013* on select dates in 2007-08 * No monthly futures prices for 2013 for contracts trading before Nov 07 Jan 16 2007 Aug 15 2007 Dec 31 2007 Mar 31 2008 Apr 30 2008