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CBIA EPC New England Energy Supply Outlook Thomas Santa Santa Energy Corporation October 18 th, 2013 1.

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Presentation on theme: "CBIA EPC New England Energy Supply Outlook Thomas Santa Santa Energy Corporation October 18 th, 2013 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 CBIA EPC New England Energy Supply Outlook Thomas Santa Santa Energy Corporation October 18 th, 2013 1

2 New England Energy Supply Outlook NE Market Overviews – Natural Gas – Distillate Fuel – Electricity National Outlook Conclusions 2

3 Connecticut Natural Gas Market Share Source: USDOE-EIA 3

4 Volume USDOE/EIA 20072008200920102011 Residential Oil (Gal) 520,078,000 460,374,000 534,600,000 450,853,000 418,346,000 Gas (CCF) 433,480,000 429,350,000 439,950,000 427,290,000 447,190,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 320,806,498 317,750,000 325,594,765 316,225,451 330,952,888 Commercial Oil (Gal) 111,648,000 93,350,000 90,979,000 85,802,000 87,188,000 Gas (CCF) 359,630,000 376,660,000 397,310,000 406,560,000 448,320,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 266,152,166 278,755,596 294,038,087 300,883,755 331,789,170 Industrial Oil (Gal) 28,459,000 8,857,888 24,138,000 9,527,000 8,290,000 Gas (CCF) 227,940,000 225,390,000 245,850,000 241,170,000 259,140,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 168,692,058 166,804,874 181,946,751 178,483,213 191,782,310 Total Oil (Gal) 660,185,000 562,581,888 649,717,000 546,182,000 513,824,000 Gas (CCF) 1,021,050,000 1,031,400,000 1,083,110,000 1,075,020,000 1,154,650,000 Gas (Eq_GAL) 755,650,722 763,310,469 801,579,603 795,592,419 854,524,368 State of Connecticut Oil & Natural Gas Consumption by Sector 4

5 Monthly Average Natural Gas Flows North into New England on Algonquin Transmission Pipeline 5

6 Annual Average Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Prices 1990-2040 (2011 Dollars per Million Btu) 6

7 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price 7

8 Spectra AIM Project- Nov. 2016 450,000 mcf/day 8

9 Tennessee Gas Pipeline CT Expansion Project – 72,000 mcf/Day - Due Late 2016 TGP Northeast Expansion- 0.5-1.7Bcf/Day- Dec. 2016 Wright to Dracut- 0.5-1.0Bcf/Day- TBD 2017 9

10 2013 New England Natural Gas Supply Additions Deep Panuke- 300,000mcf/day 10

11 New England Distillate Stocks October 2005-2013 (Barrels x 1000) 11

12 Monthly Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil Prices Dollars Per Gallon 12

13 Heating Oil Sulfur Requirement by State 2013-2018 Sulfur Content in PPM 13

14 Natural Gas’s Annual Share of Total Electricity Sales in New England 14

15 Vermont Yankee’s Percent of New England Electricity Sales 15

16 Unit Name Operating (OP)/ Renewed License Date License Expiration Date Reactor Type Electrical Output (MWe) (a) Reactor Vendor/Type Millstone 2 September 26, 1975/ November 28, 2005 July 31, 2035 Pressurized water 884 Combustion Engineering (vendor) Millstone 3 January 31, 1986/ November 28,2005 November 25, 2045 Pressurized water 1,227 Westinghouse/ four-loop Pilgrim June 8, 1972/ May 29, 2012 June 8, 2032Boiling water685 General Electric/ type 3 SeabrookOP: March 15, 1990 March 15, 2030 Pressurized water 1,295 Westinghouse/ four-loop Vermont Yankee March 21, 1972/ March 21, 2012 March 21, 2032 Boiling water510 General Electric/ type 4 New England Nuclear Fleet- 2013 16

17 Current Spot Prices Oct 2013- Delivered to large commercial user Dollars Per million BTUs 17

18 18

19 U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas by Source 1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet) 19

20 Weekly U.S. Net Imports of Total Petroleum Products 20

21 4-Week Average U.S. Exports Propane & Propylene 21

22 Conclusions New England rapidly adjusting to the new US supply equation The Ct state government aggressively promoting a mono-fuel state Connecticut in a precarious energy supply position through 2016 Oil/Gas/ Propane cost relationships will not hold at current levels. 22

23 Santa Energy Corporation Thank You! 23


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