1. Criminal Violence: Patterns, Causes, and Prevention Riedel and Welsh, Ch. 12 “The Role of Firearms in Violence”

2. OUTLINE Patterns and Trends: Firearm Violence Patterns and Trends: Firearm Violence Explanations Explanations Symbolic Interaction Symbolic Interaction Routine Activities Routine Activities Cultural Theories Cultural Theories Interventions Interventions Disrupting Illegal Markets Disrupting Illegal Markets Boston Violence Prevention Project Boston Violence Prevention Project Gun Control Legislation Gun Control Legislation Right to Carry Laws Right to Carry Laws

3. Patterns and Trends Weapons are more likely to be used in some types of violent crime than others (in 20% of all violent crimes overall).

4. Patterns (cont.) In any given year, firearms are involved in ½ of all suicides and 2/3 or more of homicides (NRC, 2005). In any given year, firearms are involved in ½ of all suicides and 2/3 or more of homicides (NRC, 2005). Age and Race: The risk of death is elevated for young people (ages 15- 34), particularly black males. Age and Race: The risk of death is elevated for young people (ages 15- 34), particularly black males. Gender: 83% of gun crime victims are males. Gender: 83% of gun crime victims are males. Guns: Estimated 258,000,000 firearms in U.S. (NRC, 2005) Guns: Estimated 258,000,000 firearms in U.S. (NRC, 2005)

5. Trends: Number of crimes committed with firearms declined dramatically after 1993.

6. Offenders 90% of firearm homicides committed by males. Offense rates are highest for ages 18-24. juvenile homicides The increase in juvenile homicides witnessed in the mid-1980s was entirely firearm-related. Sheley & Wright Sheley & Wright: Juveniles report easy access to guns -- only 35% said it would be difficult. 83% of juveniles incarcerated in secure detention centers and 22% of urban high school students possessed guns. self-protection The main reason given for carrying a gun was self-protection.

7. Offenders (cont.) FIREARM ACQUISITION AND USE Wright & Rossi (1985): Interviewed 1,874 incarcerated felons. Of these, 184 reported firing a gun while committing an offense. Interviewed 1,874 incarcerated felons. Of these, 184 reported firing a gun while committing an offense. The most commonly reported motivations for using a gun included “to protect myself” (48%), “to scare the victim” (45%), and to “kill the victim” (36%). (Categories not mutually exclusive) The most commonly reported motivations for using a gun included “to protect myself” (48%), “to scare the victim” (45%), and to “kill the victim” (36%). (Categories not mutually exclusive) 1991 Survey of State Prison Inmates (Beck, 1993): Interviewed 14,000 inmates Interviewed 14,000 inmates The most frequently reported reasons for using a gun were to scare the victim (54%), for protection (30%), to kill the victim (14%), and to get away (12%). The most frequently reported reasons for using a gun were to scare the victim (54%), for protection (30%), to kill the victim (14%), and to get away (12%). SOURCES OF GUN ACQUISITION Inmates: most frequent source was family or friends (44%), followed by illegal gun markets (26%), retail outlets (21%), and other (9%). Inmates: most frequent source was family or friends (44%), followed by illegal gun markets (26%), retail outlets (21%), and other (9%).

8. Explanations Symbolic Interaction Theory Luckenbill: Disputes become violent through a series of interpersonal exchanges. Luckenbill: Disputes become violent through a series of interpersonal exchanges. A situated transaction refers to an interaction between people in a specific setting, time, and social context. A situated transaction refers to an interaction between people in a specific setting, time, and social context. The presence of a weapon during a dispute greatly increases the likelihood of its use. The presence of a weapon during a dispute greatly increases the likelihood of its use. Homicides typically centered on some conflict that escalated over time, and resulted in attempts by one or both parties to "save face" at the other's expense. Homicides typically centered on some conflict that escalated over time, and resulted in attempts by one or both parties to "save face" at the other's expense.

9. Routine Activities and Illegal Markets Routine activity patterns influence crime rates by affecting the convergence in space and time of: (1) motivated offenders, (2) suitable targets, and (3) the absence of capable guardians. Routine activity patterns influence crime rates by affecting the convergence in space and time of: (1) motivated offenders, (2) suitable targets, and (3) the absence of capable guardians. Offenders commit offenses near places where they spend most of their time, and major pathways in between. Offenders commit offenses near places where they spend most of their time, and major pathways in between. Victims are victimized near places where they spend most of their time, and major pathways in between. Victims are victimized near places where they spend most of their time, and major pathways in between. Sherman et al. (1989): Places, like people, have their own routine activities. Sherman et al. (1989): Places, like people, have their own routine activities. Hot spots: Over half of all calls to police were to only 3.3% of all places. Hot spots: Over half of all calls to police were to only 3.3% of all places. Illegal markets in certain places (e.g., prostitution, drug sales) create their own routine activities. Illegal markets in certain places (e.g., prostitution, drug sales) create their own routine activities.

10. Cultural Theories and Firearm Availability Proportion of households owning a gun has remained stable at about 50% for three decades. Proportion of households owning a gun has remained stable at about 50% for three decades. Rates of gun ownership are highest in rural areas and small towns, higher for whites than blacks, highest in the South, and higher for high- income households. Rates of gun ownership are highest in rural areas and small towns, higher for whites than blacks, highest in the South, and higher for high- income households. Simple “subcultural” interpretations are thus not easy to support: there is considerable diversity in the membership of gun owners. Simple “subcultural” interpretations are thus not easy to support: there is considerable diversity in the membership of gun owners. Research shows little relationship between gun availability and the number of nonfatal gun crimes, although greater gun availability was associated with a higher rate of felony murder. Research shows little relationship between gun availability and the number of nonfatal gun crimes, although greater gun availability was associated with a higher rate of felony murder. Gun availability alone cannot explain high rates of violent crime in the U.S. Gun availability alone cannot explain high rates of violent crime in the U.S.

11. Interventions: Disrupting Illegal Markets KANSAS CITY GUN EXPERIMENT Based on the theory that additional, proactive police patrols to detect gun violations in high-crime areas would increase gun seizures and reduce gun crime either by deterring or incapacitating gun-using criminals (Sherman, 1995) Based on the theory that additional, proactive police patrols to detect gun violations in high-crime areas would increase gun seizures and reduce gun crime either by deterring or incapacitating gun-using criminals (Sherman, 1995) Results Results 1. Target Beat: Gun seizures by police increased significantly (by 65%), while gun crimes declined significantly (by 49%). 2. Comparison Beat: During the same time period, there were no significant changes in gun crimes or guns seized. 3. Several alternative hypotheses were ruled out (e.g., only gun crimes were affected by the directed patrols; there was no measurable displacement of gun crimes to beats surrounding the target area).

12. Interventions: The Boston Violence Prevention Project Step 1: Officials analyzed the supply and demand for guns. Both victims and offenders typically had histories of gang membership and high rates of offending. Both victims and offenders typically had histories of gang membership and high rates of offending. Youth homicides were concentrated in neighborhoods that hosted an estimated 61 gangs involving about 1,300 juveniles. Youth homicides were concentrated in neighborhoods that hosted an estimated 61 gangs involving about 1,300 juveniles. Step 2: A stern message was delivered to gang members. Continued violence would lead to: severe personal restrictions for those on probation and parole (bed-checks, room searches, and enforcement of warrants), intensive police presence in neighborhoods, search and seizure of unregistered cars, vigorous arrest and prosecution for disorder offenses (drinking in public), and strict enforcement of curfew laws. Continued violence would lead to: severe personal restrictions for those on probation and parole (bed-checks, room searches, and enforcement of warrants), intensive police presence in neighborhoods, search and seizure of unregistered cars, vigorous arrest and prosecution for disorder offenses (drinking in public), and strict enforcement of curfew laws. Step 3: City, state, and federal representatives helped establish a large network of community-based job, recreation, and prevention programs for juveniles. RESULTS 63% decrease in monthly youth homicides 63% decrease in monthly youth homicides 32% decrease in # of “shots-fired” calls to police 32% decrease in # of “shots-fired” calls to police 25% decrease in monthly firearm-related assaults (Braga et al., 2001) (but: no real control group; many strategies) 25% decrease in monthly firearm-related assaults (Braga et al., 2001) (but: no real control group; many strategies)

13. Interventions: Gun Control Legislation Three broad strategies are possible: 1. Altering Gun Uses or Storage (regulations affecting the legal carrying, storage, and use of a firearm) 2. Reducing Lethality of Guns (e.g., technology such as user identification mechanisms and trigger locks) 3. Market-Based Strategies (i.e., restrictions on availability)

14. 1. ALTERING GUN USES OR STORAGE (regulations affecting the legal carrying, storage, and use of a firearm) Bartley-Fox Laws in MA: expanded gun licensing procedures, and mandated a 1-year sentence for unlicensed carrying of a firearm. Bartley-Fox Laws in MA: expanded gun licensing procedures, and mandated a 1-year sentence for unlicensed carrying of a firearm. During a 2-year evaluation period, the law decreased gun use in assaults and robberies, and decreased gun homicides (Pierce & Bowers, 1979). During a 2-year evaluation period, the law decreased gun use in assaults and robberies, and decreased gun homicides (Pierce & Bowers, 1979). Sentencing enhancements for the use of a gun during a felony Sentencing enhancements for the use of a gun during a felony Study of six jurisdictions showed a decrease in gun homicides, but no change in non-gun homicides, and no consistent effect on gun robberies or assaults. Study of six jurisdictions showed a decrease in gun homicides, but no change in non-gun homicides, and no consistent effect on gun robberies or assaults.

15. 2. Reducing Lethality of Guns (e.g., technology such as user identification mechanisms and trigger locks) Includes measures that designate certain firearms (e.g., assault rifles) dangerous because of concealability, firepower, or other risk Includes measures that designate certain firearms (e.g., assault rifles) dangerous because of concealability, firepower, or other risk Also includes measures that restrict access to certain types of weapons or ammunition by law, or makes weapons less dangerous by requiring specific types of safety technology (e.g., trigger locks) Also includes measures that restrict access to certain types of weapons or ammunition by law, or makes weapons less dangerous by requiring specific types of safety technology (e.g., trigger locks) Little evaluation evidence of these strategies exists at this time. Little evaluation evidence of these strategies exists at this time.

16. 3. Market-Based Strategies Examples: Tougher regulation of federal firearm licensees Tougher regulation of federal firearm licensees Limits on # of guns that can be purchased in a given time period Limits on # of guns that can be purchased in a given time period Gun bans Gun bans Gun buy-backs Gun buy-backs Enforcement of existing laws against illegal gun buyers or sellers Enforcement of existing laws against illegal gun buyers or sellers

17. Firearms can be diverted to criminals and juveniles at any stage of legitimate business. Examples: Stolen guns Straw purchases “Lying and buying” Gun dealer ignores regulations

18. Federal Gun Control Act of 1968: prohibited gun dealers from selling to “dangerous” categories of persons (juveniles, convicted felons, drug users, and former mental patients). Federal Gun Control Act of 1968: prohibited gun dealers from selling to “dangerous” categories of persons (juveniles, convicted felons, drug users, and former mental patients). No significant effects on firearms injuries or deaths were found in an evaluation study (Zimring, 1975), although weak enforcement of the laws is partially responsible for weak effects. No significant effects on firearms injuries or deaths were found in an evaluation study (Zimring, 1975), although weak enforcement of the laws is partially responsible for weak effects. The Brady Act (1994) mandated presale background checks and prohibited retail sales of guns to persons in high-risk categories specified by federal law. The Brady Act (1994) mandated presale background checks and prohibited retail sales of guns to persons in high-risk categories specified by federal law. Only about 2% of all applicants are rejected annually. Most rejections (58%) were for a prior felony conviction or a current felony indictment. Only about 2% of all applicants are rejected annually. Most rejections (58%) were for a prior felony conviction or a current felony indictment. Few evaluations exist (but see Ludwig & Cook, 2000), but given the small percentage of rejections relative to applicants, the cost effectiveness of this strategy is questionable. Few evaluations exist (but see Ludwig & Cook, 2000), but given the small percentage of rejections relative to applicants, the cost effectiveness of this strategy is questionable. Screening Gun Buyers

19. District of Columbia Handgun Ban (1975) Prohibited ownership of handguns by virtually anyone except police officers, security guards, and previous gun owners. Prohibited ownership of handguns by virtually anyone except police officers, security guards, and previous gun owners. During periods of vigorous enforcement in the 3 years following implementation, the law reduced rates of gun robbery, assault, and homicide. During periods of vigorous enforcement in the 3 years following implementation, the law reduced rates of gun robbery, assault, and homicide. However, gun homicides increased in 1988 when crack markets exploded. However, gun homicides increased in 1988 when crack markets exploded.

20. Right-to-Carry Laws Some researchers (e.g., Lott) have claimed that increased handgun availability among the population provides a deterrent to would-be criminals. NRC (2005): “It is impossible to draw strong conclusions from the existing literature on the causal impact of these laws.” Limitations of Research Inadequate controls for cross-jurisdictional variations in poverty rates, gang and drug activity, and local and state governmental gun laws and anticrime programs Short time series Small number of jurisdictions Questionable measurement of key variables A lack of individual-level data of actual gun attitudes or use

21. Conclusions Because felons most frequently obtain their firearms through unregulated sales, the benefits of further federal regulation of guns may be small. Because felons most frequently obtain their firearms through unregulated sales, the benefits of further federal regulation of guns may be small. While a diverse array of legislation has been attempted in recent years, much more rigorous, controlled evaluations of different interventions are needed. While a diverse array of legislation has been attempted in recent years, much more rigorous, controlled evaluations of different interventions are needed. Strategies aimed at disrupting illegal markets and targeting high-risk individuals appear most promising. Strategies aimed at disrupting illegal markets and targeting high-risk individuals appear most promising.