1. PUBLIC TRANSPORT FUELS & THE ENVIRONMENT ISSUES & OPTIONS 2010 & Beyond

2. Background... Passenger & Goods Transportation, public or private sector in Pakistan, operates almost entirely on Diesel The high percentage (approx 25%) of unburned Diesel (particulates) seriously threatens our environment Frequent increases in cost of HSD in recent years has meant higher passenger tariffs and enhanced carriage rates, thus further impact on the inflation scenario This has necessitated a study of alternative fuels for public transport to compare respective pros and cons

3. Background... Conventional vehicle fuels, petrol & diesel, because of rising costs and ill effects on the environment, were considered for replacement and CNG quickly became a viable option for many motorists In the Public Transport sector, however, CNG was not as popular, for varying reasons, with some exceptions. In order to develop a tenable plan for the future of this sector, it is essential to analyze available options

4. A Brief Look At The Energy Situation...

5. Estimated Natural Gas Demand-Supply Picture...

6. CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT FUELS Should be readily available, whether locally-produced or imported, and easily/economically distributable Should be eco-friendly, meet internationally prescribed standards and effectively reduce pollution Should provide a cost-effective solution to operators in the public and private sectors Any “switch-over” when considered should have least burden on the exchequer

7. Available Alternate Fuel Options... With Bio-Fuels still a distant proposition, the realistic alternatives to look at, singly or as a combination, are stated below: 1.CNG – from local gas fields or re-gasified, imported LNG or Iran (IP) 2.LPG – local (OGDC fields) or imported 3.LPG-On-DIESEL: New Technologies

8. 1: CNG – Salient Features... Pros Eco-Friendly Vs Diesel/Petrol Existing Network of Stations (not suitable for Heavy Trpt.) Cost-effective over petrol/diesel (subject to Govt regulated prices) Cons Availability/Shortage Issues (Ref regular supply drops and Demand-Supply projections) Iranian NG and LNG too expensive – viable for Power Generation only (MoPNR) IP will take several years and billions of Dollars to develop Re-fuelling infrastructure requires massive Capex (PKR/Forex incl. Powergen) Distributable via pipeline only

9. 2: LPG – Salient features... Eco-Friendly – lesser green house gases than other fuels Locally produced and readily available in the Gulf region (Oman, Qatar & Abu Dhabi produce over 20 Mln Tons/annum) Cost-effective over petrol and diesel (even CNG, up to a price range 50% more than CNG) Distributable via bowzer and pipeline, hence, can be made available to areas with no NG supply Extremely friendly to engine parts, thus, lower maintenance costs No major Capex required to set up special refuelling infrastructure – distributors across the country providing cylinders plus GoP has approved the setting up LPG Autogas Stations

10. LPG-ON-DIESEL Although relatively recent in the case of vehicles, LPG has been said to have been used in other countries on Diesel generators for several decades. Simply stated, LPG assists Diesel to burn better and fuller resulting in 98-99% of the Diesel being burned (instead of 75%) thus drastically reducing carbon particulates emissions Typically, 30-40% LPG is mixed with Diesel to make the new fuel fed to the engine Latest technologies, in keeping with fuel injection systems used on vehicles, are sophisticated and latest Kits are run by programmed ECU’s for fuel injection systems as well as the older naturally aspirated engines

11. Buses on: CNG - LPG - LPG+DIESEL A Comparison... PARAMETERSCNGLPGLPG+HSDREMARKS Cylinder Pressure (psi)+ 3000150 - 250125 - 150Gas Pressure Typical Fuel Capacity108 kg90 kg90 kg + 190LStd. HSD Tank No of Cylinders/Bus622 Weight of Cylinders/Bus576 kg90 kg 90 kg – LPGStd. HSD Tank Filling Time10-15 Min3-5 Min Gas Fills Only Distance on one Fill325 km405 km935 km * *190L HSD+51kg LPG At Retail Price (Rs.)57/kg90/kg90/kg & 75/L Cost Per Kilometre (PKR)19.0020.0020.15 100% HSD = 24.00 Power Loss (Vs original fuel)HighNegligibleNone * * Higher Torque/Power Cost: New Bus or Kit (PKR)5 - 6 Mln 110-120,000 ** Dual Fuel Kit Cost per Filling Station (PKR) 150 MlnNot Required * * Dist./Autogas Power Requirements Very High * N/A ~20MW/1000 Buses Environmental ImpactGood Good * * Reduced C Parts. LPG/HSD Ratio--35:65 Lead Time - ImplementationVery Long *Long *Very Short* Imports/Infrastr.

12. SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS Summary CNG * Serious supply constraints – Where will Natural Gas come from? * IP Gas and LNG some years away, require large investments, and economically viable ONLY for power generation sector * Requires specialised refuelling infrastructure – huge investments * Large amount also required from operators/owners to buy Buses * Govt needs to re-prioritise NG allocations to get value additions LPG * Readily available in the region – no burden on other sectors * High energy density and composition make it engine-friendly * No special infrastructure requirements – low investment project * Easily transportable throughout the country * Most Eco-friendly

13. SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS LPG + DIESEL * Technology available and in use in many countries * Diesel engine emissions major contributor to urban pollution * Using Diesel-Dual-Fuel technology is least expensive option * Rs.110-120,000/vehicle conversion cost – highly affordable * 1.5 Million+ operating diesel vehicles will continue to ply * Conversions require shortest lead time * Immediate reduction in pollutants with each converted vehicle * An estimated 5% in fuel savings recorded internationally * Cost savings in Pak estimated at Rs.3-4 per Km, so quick payback * Trials successfully conducted in Pakistan already for local data

14. RECOMMENDATIONS Given the various constraints faced today – of resource scarcity, environmental concerns, required investments and paucity of time to redress matters – we require a fresh approach, an ‘out-of-box’ thinking and serious analyses of the options and technologies available in the world This presentation attempted to compare the possible options, their financial implications for the government and operators and the environmental impact Based on the comparison, it is highly recommended that the Diesel- Dual-Fuel Technology be adopted as it requires the least investment, near-zero lead times, no infrastructure build-out while offering huge environmental benefits, cost savings to operators, Forex savings for the GOP, and conversions in quick time at highly affordable rates

15. Thank You