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WNA China Symposium Hong Kong October, 2011 The Ongoing Evolution of Nuclear Power Economics.

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Presentation on theme: "WNA China Symposium Hong Kong October, 2011 The Ongoing Evolution of Nuclear Power Economics."— Presentation transcript:

1 WNA China Symposium Hong Kong October, 2011 The Ongoing Evolution of Nuclear Power Economics

2 The World in 2011 An accident somewhere is an accident everywhere 2

3 The World in Success somewhere is success everywhere “I’m convinced that about half of what separates the successful entrepreneurs from the non- successful ones is pure perseverance.” (Steve Jobs) “That’s been one of my mantras – focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But its worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.” (Steve Jobs) “Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose.” (Steve Jobs)

4 The World’s Nuclear Capacity 4 operatingseriousemerging WNA 2011

5 Measuring Success For global success, new build nuclear must demonstrate that it is competitive in an economic sense. Nuclear is capital intensive with long project schedules Nuclear has low operating costs due to low cost of fuel In many markets, the belief is that nuclear is not economic, is too expensive and needs subsidies In reality nuclear has been and continues to be economic relative to the alternatives in most jurisdictions Economics will improve as climate change concerns continue to increase (adding a cost for carbon) Economics are being challenged by low gas prices and high nuclear plant costs (primarily in the west) 5

6 Economics of New Build Nuclear 6

7 Categories of generation costs Investment (capital) costs and interest charged on these Fuel costs Operations & Maintenance (O&M) costs - fixed and variable For nuclear, fuel cost includes used fuel management/waste disposal. Decommissioning of nuclear plants is an additional investment cost, but comes many years in the future (and is accounted for in the fuel cost) % Fuel 70-80%15-20% 15-25%5-10%20-35% 40-50%15-20%50-60% O&M Investment CoalGas CCGTNuclear Cost Component

8 Current Operating Reactors Economic performance Low production (marginal) costs –Fuel and O&M typically below 2 US cents per kWh –Best plants achieving 1.3 to 1.6 US cents per kWh in Europe and US 8 U.S. Electricity Production Costs Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs Source: US Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)

9 Economics of new nuclear plants Nuclear has high investment costs, takes long time to come into operation, then has low and stable operating costs Gas plants have low investment costs, are built quickly and have high and variable operating costs Coal plants have moderate investment costs, are built relatively quickly and have moderate variable operating costs Which is the most economic depends heavily on: –(1) fossil fuel price and price for carbon, if any –(2) interest/discount rate used –(3) nuclear investment cost 9

10 (1) Fuel Price 10

11 Fuel as a Percentage of Electric Power Production Costs 2007 Conversion Fabrication Waste Fund Enrichment Uranium Source: Global Energy Decisions; Energy Resources International, Inc. Updated: 5/08 CoalGasNuclear 11

12 The New Gas Age Access to shale gas in North America has been a game changer Technically recoverable reserves in the USA increased by 240% from 2010 to 2011 Price to remain below $5 /MMBTU for the next decade Long term price to be 20% lower than last year’s forecast OECD Study assumes a price of $7.78 for USA Is shale gas coming to other parts of the world? 12 Source: EIA AEO 2011 “Nuclear is a business, not a religion there must be a shortage of natural gas and stable high prices to make the economics right. This condition cannot be met due to the influx of shale gas into the market. Shale is good for the country, bad for new nuclear development.” John Rowe, Chairman and CEO of Exelon (August 15, 2011)

13 Addressing Green House Gases Climate change remains the environmental issues of most concern globally Placing a cost on carbon would discourage use and promote alternatives Greenhouse gas abatement can be helped by (1) carbon taxes, (2) carbon emission trading schemes or (3) incentives to non- carbon emitting technologies All would benefit new nuclear build Carbon prices impact the LCOE –Coal ~ $1 / tonne = $1 / MWh –Gas ~ $1 / tonne = $0.50 / MWh 13 Sources: IEA "World Energy Outlook 2008" - " Reference Scenario "

14 (2) Discount Rate Discount rate depends on interest rates, view of the future, project risk Public sector – low (3-5%) and private sector higher (5-15%) Low discount rates reflect lower perception of risk - favours projects with high investment costs, longer schedules and low marginal costs i.e. hydro and nuclear plants High discount rates reflect higher perception of risk - favours projects with low investment costs, shorter schedules and high marginal costs ie gas plants However, the perception is that gas plants are low risk and nuclear plants are higher risk 14

15 (3) Nuclear Investment Cost 15

16 Costs are continuing to diverge between East and West US EIA assuming a cost of $5,339/kW for its AEO 2011 (an increase of 37% from 2010) China (at last year’s symposium) announced its first 4 AP1000 reactors will cost $2,000 /kW with the next units expected to be $1,600 /kW 16

17 Location Factors Site specific characteristics Local supply chain Contractual structure Regulatory regime Government policies 17 Confidence

18 Sustaining the Nuclear Renaissance Recent studies show that nuclear generation can be an economic option in most jurisdictions Nuclear costs in the west have increased over the past decade –Increased costs coupled with lower gas prices is challenging nuclear competitiveness in North America Asian activity is revitalizing the industry –Recent new builds costs in China and Korea are benefiting from standardization Nuclear capital cost and risk reduction can be achieved by maximizing use of recent experience in Asia –Use of global supply chain to lower both cost and risk. As the fastest growing nuclear country in the world China has great responsibility to the global industry –to successfully implement its program safely and economically –and to share its lessons learned with the world 18

19 Our Nuclear Future An accident somewhere is an accident everywhere Success somewhere is success everywhere 19 “We don’t get a chance to do that many things, and every one should be really excellent. Because this is our life. Life is brief, and then you die, you know? And we’ve all chosen to do this with our lives. So it better be damn good. It better be worth it.” (Steve Jobs)

20 Thank You Milton Caplan MZConsulting Inc. - President


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