1. The Future of Online Learning n Stephen Downes n Assiniboine Community College n Brandon, Manitoba, Canada NAWeb 98 - October 6, 1998 Fredericton, NB

2. Even in this age of rapidly changing technology, trends may be identified If we study these trends, deep changes in the nature of learning are identifiable

3. Future Technology n Bandwidth will be unlimited n Processing power will be unlimited n Computers will become more specialized n Operating systems will fade, software will become task based n Keyword: simplicity

4. New Technology in Education n Personal Access Device (the PAD) means that education will be personal and portable n Presentation software - eg., Director, virtual reality, etc. - will come to the fore n Instructors less and less likely to produce their own online materials consequently...

5. Interaction and Conferencing n Synchronous conferencing systems will become cheap and easy to use - a platform into which tools (eg whiteboard) are plugged n Asynchronous conferencing will evolve into full multimedia n Standards will develop for a wide range of conferencing modes

6. Personalized Education n Learning topics will be selected according to students’ needs, not predefined structures n Groups will be formed dynamically, as needed (the Quest model) n Materials will be presented automatically, as needed n Learning systems will adapt to individual students’ learning styles

7. Time and Place Independence n Time will cease to be an objective standard n Not self-paced; dynamically paced n Instruction of the future will encourage mobility n Schools of the future will consist of meeting places, not classrooms n On and off campus learning will converge

8. Learning Communities n Learning is a social activity n Interest based communities will exist online - these communities need to be fostered n Peer based learning communities will form around schools, churches, community centres, etc.

9. The Triad Model n Consists of student, instructor, facilitator n The instructor does not deliver instruction, but rather, acts as an expert and resource n The facilitator is community based, and is an advocate for students n The host/provider framework describes the institutional model (especially as traditional boundries become fuzzy or disappear)

10. Accreditation n Already a mish-mash and won’t improve n Learning and the assessment of learning will diverge - testing and certification n PLA & self-managed learning will flourish n Education as a service - institutions will be seen not as providing knowledge, but rather, counsel and support for learning

11. Modularity n Courses and delivery systems will be modular (each part updated as needed) n Modularity will be used to support customized and individualized courses n The course itself is an arbitrary division n Distributed design - modules from all over will be plugged into courses n Educational Object Protocols and IMS

12. Ownership and Copyright n Courses per se will not be owned n Course components will be owned n Specialized resources will be offered by institutions and companies, using a pay- back system n Topic-based online services will exist independently of institutions n Institutions will select & manage content

13. Economics of Online Learning n In the short term costs will be high n In the long term savings will be large: – improved automation – wider reach & more students – savings in capital infastructure n Savings depend on the fragmentation of instructional tasks n The largest beneficiary will be students

14. http://www.assiniboinec.mb.ca/ user/downes/future