1. Employment and poverty Eduardo Zepeda

2. Mexico’s growth performance deteriorated after debt crisis and with IMF-WB style stabilisation

3. Poverty increased with 1995 crisis, otherwise declined but remained high. Inequality has also remained high and possibly w/increasing trend

4. Mexico’s mixed recent performance of pro-poor growth Inequality, poverty and growth: Mexico 1989-2002 Annual rates of change years^ gini^ poverty^ gdp^ gdp-pcpro-poor 89-92-0.4-0.34.32.3YES 92-94-1.4-3.33.21.3YES 94-960.632.7-0.7-2.3anti-poor 96-983.3-4.45.84.3NO 98-00-0.5-15.65.23.8YES 00-02-2.7-8.4-0.1-0.9favouring poor

5. Urban non-agricultural employment has been drifting away from manufacturing into services Employment (th) Sumcomercioserviciosmanufactura 1989 4,359 2,169 1,719 2,640 1994 6,044 3,213 2,798 3,246 1999 8,153 3,785 3,921 4,232 1989 100 49.8 39.4 60.6 1994 100 53.2 46.3 53.7 1999 100 46.4 48.1 51.9

6. That is, into low-mid wage activities, but relative wages in manufacturing are also declining Wages (1999 pesos per day) Non-agriculturecomercioserviciosmanufactura 198933.7820.2419.6154.13 199443.5227.3138.4363.96 199929.9919.9431.6147.03 1989 100 60 58 160 1994 100 63 88 147 1999 100 66 105 157

7. Employment elasticity in mnf was high (i.e. but no productivity growth), wages declining. Employment and wages in manufacturing: 1989, 1994 and 1999. employmentprd/ocupationemploymentshare bluewageswage ratio elasticity 1productivity 1all (th.)in employmentallblue/white annual % ^ 89-941.5-1.34.20.53.4-4.0 94-991.4-1.55.5-1.8-6.0-6.3

8. High employment elasticity manufacturing (assembly->manufacture) Maquiladora manufacturing Annual rates of change % productivity1productivity2 pro-poorelasticityval.prd/ocuvalue ad/ocuwg blue/whiteblue collar/ocu 89-92YES1.19.00.8-0.6-0.2 92-94YES0.810.4-0.1-0.50.8 94-96anti-poor1.14.3-0.74.30.0 96-98NO0.73.41.4-2.3-0.4 98-00YES0.98.45.11.2-0.2 00-02favouring poor-5.58.819.4-4.7-0.9

9. Low employment elasticity manufacturing (manufacturing-> assembly) Large Manufacturing Industries Annual rates of change % labour% of yearspro-poorelasticityproductivityoc: wrk/ocuwg: blu/wht 89-92NO-1.43.1-0.3-4.6 92-94YES4.74.6-0.5-4.4 94-96anti-poor-4.746.90.21.7 96-98NO-2.318.30.41.6 98-00YES-10.512.8-0.21.9 00-02favouring poor3.57.8-0.71.2

10. 90-94 pro-poor despite informalisation?; 94-96 worsening in employment; 96-00 pro-poor & pro- employment Informal employemnt and income from labor Annual rates of change % Self employedEmployees/microStreet vendorsUnpaidTotal ocu pro-poor^ #^ wages^ #^ wages^ #^ wages^ ## 90-94YES4.9-6.34.8-14.315.0-10.25.73.7 94-96?5.5-12.91.6-11.322.4-5.22.70.6 96-00YES1.96.0-0.49.9-0.67.0-6.44.2

11. Memo: indicators of the order of magnitud of informality Urban Employment (mill) and labor Income (1993 pesos) 1987199419962000 Total Occupation 10.3 11.9 12.0 14.2 Self employed %15.215.817.415.9 ees micro bs %20.621.922.318.6 Street vendors %4.13.04.53.7 Unpaid workers %4.74.64.83.2 Employees %78.779.878.178.7 Waged wk %69.268.266.369.3 Full time (a/y) %52.052.850.848.9 ees large bs %33.031.730.734.0

12. Informality: anti-cyclical escape valve

13. Ees in micro have gained; ees in large have retained their edge Relative wages Self employed142171144139 ees micro bs718776100 Street vendors100 ees large bs187252231200

14. Poverty among working population by status The incidence of poverty is high, evidently among unemployed and vulnerable youth. The increase in poverty among the vulnerable youth is rapid. Poverty by labour status 92-02 Avgyr%& wkng16-0.2 un220.5 vul,yth271.6

15. Poverty among working population by sector The incidence of poverty is highest in agriculture, then construction and light industry The reduction of poverty was fastest among extractives and services. Poverty by economic sector 94-02 Avg%yr%^ agrc410.5 extrc7-12.9 l.ind15-0.4 h.ind9-9.6 cnst210.3 trade111.3 serv7-7.8 trnsp917.7

16. Poverty among working population by sector The incidence of poverty is highest among agriculture, unpaid and self employed The reduction of poverty was fastest among owners of micro bs. Poverty by ocupation type 94-02 Avg%yr%^ ee.agr410.3 ee.n.agr91.3 self.prf1-100.0 self.npf24-0.3 ee.exc1-0.4 own.mcr9-11.2 own.oth7-1.6 no.pyd30-3.7 other190.2

17. CONCLUDING REMARKS Macro stabilisation has been succesful in bringing down inflation, aligning the budget and in bringing international rules to financial and banking services. The economy has modernise (the largest chink of FDI in the 90s went to services) But the economy has not growth sufficiently. Poverty and inequality remain a problem.

18. CONCLUDING REMARKS Trade, investment and financial market liberalisation has not been enough to increase growth. The big star of export oriented re-industrialisation, maquiladora, is now running out of steam, with China’s accession to the WTO. Other types of re-industrialisation, such as LAC’s resouce based path needs to be further developed. If Mexico’s has faced difficult employment challenges that have led to large informal activities, now that maquiladora is weakening the employment challenge will be more difficult.

19. CONCLUDING REMARKS Poverty reduction strategies are comprehensive, and resources channeled to these activities have been recently increasing: 1.0% gdp 96-00, 1.4% in 2004. But temporary employment programmes are declining: 1.2 m. jobs in 99 vs 300 th. in 04 24% of expend in 01 vs 6% in 04. Micro credits & supports for micro production are declining: 3% in 01 vs 1% in 04.

20. CONCLUDING REMARKS There is a clear need to support employment and productivity enhancement in: –urban & particularly in rural areas –focusing on micro bs & the self employed. Beyond these, there is a need to increase the employment elasticity of manufacturing.