1. Euro-Atlantic winter atmospheric response to the Tropical Atlantic Variability T. Losada (1), B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (1), J. García- Serrano (1) C.R. Mechoso (2), F. Kucharski (3) (1) Dpto. de Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM, Madrid, Spain (2) Departmet of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA, USA (3) International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

2. Tropical Atlantic principal modes of variability EQUATORIAL MODE: during SUMMER the #1 EOF of the SST variability over the Equatorial Atlantic shows a NIÑO-LIKE PATTERN, a highly ocean-atmosphere coupled mode in which the Bjerknes feedback operates(Zebiak 1993). SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC MODE: Shares its variability part with the TRIPOLE PATTERN, the WINTER #1 EOF of the SST variability over the North Atlantic, in which poles centred towards the west of the basin alternate in the meridional direction (Sutton and Allen 1997).

3. SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER What are the dynamical mechanisms at work in the relation SST – Atmospheric Circulation ? Are the subtropical SST anomalies the responsible of the anomalous atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector? or have the extratropical SST anomalies a key role in the generation of the atmospheric anomalies observed in high latitudes?

4. UCLA AGCM SIMULATIONS Resolution: 2.5ºlongitude x 2ºlatitude x 29 sigma levels. Initial conditions: April, 16, 1995. Simulation: April 16 1995 to March 1, 1996. Ensemble simulation: 10 members. Experiment design ATL Atlantic observed SST. 60S- 60N. Climatology elsewhere. TROP Tropical Atlantic observed SST. Climatology elsewhere. SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER

5. ATL geopotengial height and vector wind 200 hPa 925 hPa TROP geopotengial height and vector wind 200 hPa 925 hPa DJF anomalies u200 TROP u200 ATL SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER

6. zonal wind anomalies (contours) omega-meridional wind anomalies (arrows)‏ averaged between 75W-50W, 30W-0 vertical circulation DJF anomalies TROP 75w-50w ATL 75w-50wATL 30w-0 TROP 30w-0 SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER

7. Extratropical SST impact: Eddy activity and eddy – mean flow interaction horizontal projection of EEP energy transfer between the eddies and the mean flow E·(grad(ū)) gives approximately the barotropic conversion term in the eddy kinetic energy equation grad(ū) > 0 ū u’v’< 0 grad(ū) < 0 u’v’> 0 E·(grad(ū))< 0 the eddies give energy to the mean zonal flow ATL - TROP Difference of barotropic energy conversion DJF mean SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER

8. extended EP-flux vector in the meridional plane averaged between 75W-50W ATL - TROP vertical component of EEP Is proportional to the northward heat flux by eddies gives a qualitative idea of the eddy growth through baroclinic processes SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER

9. Explaining the winter circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic- European sector in 1995/96 requires consideration of both subtropical and extratropical anomalies in the Atlantic. The tropical anomalies enhance the direct circulation. The extratropical anomalies contribute to the enhancement of baroclinic eddy activity. The enhanced kinetic energy of the transient eddies is then transferred to the mean zonal flow in the upper troposphere through barotropic processes. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Losada T, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Mechoso CR, Ma H-Y (2007) Impacts of sst anomalies on the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation: A case study for the northern winter 1995/96. Cim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0261-x SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER

10. EQUATORIAL MODE INFLUENCE ON THE EURO- ATLANTIC WINTER CIRCULATION Polo et al. (2008) show the Equatorial Mode evolution and damping, while García-Serrano et al. (2008) focus their study in the evolution of the convection associated with the summer Equatorial Mode anomalies. Although no forecast capacity was described in García-Serrano et al. (2008) for winter rainfall, regressions of the precipitation on the mode described in Polo et al. (2008) show an anomalous dipole of precipitation in Europe. Also, Polo et al. (2008) point to an statistical link link between Atlantic Niños and following winter Pacific Niñas that operates from the 70's. This feature has been confirmed by Rodríguez-Fonseca et al. (2009). Is the Equatorial Mode linked to a pattern of winter European precipitation anomalies? What is the nature of the physical mechanisms behind this link? Is the Atlantic-Pacific connetion having any role on the generation of the winter atmospheric anomalies over the North Atlantic sector?

11. Experiment design 1) JJAS to NDJF regression of precipitation, sst, 200hPa velocity potential and streamfunction onto the #1 EC of the 1979-1998 EMCA between JJAS precipitation over West Africa and FMAM to SOND tropical Atlantic SSTs for: 1a) Observations. 1b) UCLA AGCM simulation with observed SSTs: OBS simulation 2) Response of the UCLA AGCM to an anomalous Equatorial Mode added to the 1979-1998 climatology: EM simulation EQUATORIAL MODE INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER CIRCULATION

12. OBSERVATIONS EQUATORIAL MODE INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER CIRCULATION

13. UCLA AGCM OBS results EQUATORIAL MODE INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER CIRCULATION

14. EM SIMULATION results EQUATORIAL MODE INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER CIRCULATION

15. During summer, atmospheric conditions related to the Equatorial Mode forcing would favor the development of opposite anomalies of SST over the Pacific ocean. From autumn to winter, the well developed SST anomalies over the Pacific affect the convection over the Caribbean region. The anomalous upward motion over the Amazon region produces an increase of precipitation in this area. An anomalous wave-like pattern arises from that region and reaches the Euro-Atlantic sector, producing a dipole of anomalous precipitation. The Equatorial Mode simulation doesn’t show any significant response from autumn, pointing to the key role of the Pacific anomalies in the winter response. EQUATORIAL MODE INFLUENCE ON THE EURO-ATLANTIC WINTER CIRCULATION SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

16. GRACIAS