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Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability: observational studies and GCMs responses Dpto. de Física de la Tierra.

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Presentation on theme: "Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability: observational studies and GCMs responses Dpto. de Física de la Tierra."— Presentation transcript:

1 Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability: observational studies and GCMs responses Dpto. de Física de la Tierra I (Geofísica y Meteorología) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, UCM África Barreto, Teresa Losada, Javier García, Irene Polo, Belén Rodríguez de Fonseca y Encarna Serrano Universidad Complutense de Madrid Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero 2005

2 Anomalous rainfall regimen in Iberian Peninsula and NW Africa Low frequency variability in North Atlantic CICYT/CLI Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM Geopotential & temperature ERA15 (surface hPa) - International meetings (EGS, Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa Geodesia-Geofísica, Meteorology of the Milenium/Roy. Meteo. Soc, 2nd. Int. Conference on Reanalyses, Internatioal Meeting on Statistical Climatology) - 3 conference proceedings -Rodriguez-Fonseca B. Relación entre el Régimen Anómalo de Precipitación en la Península Ibérica y la Variabilidad del Sistema Climático en el Atlántico Norte, PhD Thesis. Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. and E. Serrano, 2002:Winter ten-day coupled patterns between geopotential height and Iberian Peninsula rainfall using the ECMWF precipitation reanalysis J. Climate, 15, Observed & ERA15 data Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero 2005

3 CICYT/CLI Rodríguez-Fonseca and Castro, 2002: On the connection between winter anomalous precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco and the summer subtropical Atlantic SST Geophys. Ress. Lett. 29, Nº 18, 1863, doi= /2001GL CICYT/REN Winter rainfall Atmospheric predictors stratosphere Oceanic predictors - Subtropical Atlantic SST International Meeting: Chapman Conference on the NAO Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero 2005

4 Anomalous winter rainfall regimen in Europe/NW Africa North Atlantic SST anomalies CICYT/REN MCYT/REN U. Delaware data (1ºx1º lat-lon) ERSST database (2ºx2º lat-lon) SVD1 correlation maps (SST_JJAS, pt_NDJF ) Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero International meetings ( IAPSO-IABO, Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa Geodesia- Geofísica, EGS) - 2 conference proceedings Connection between rainfall anomalies in winter and the previous subtropical North Atlantic summer SST anomalies, NAO-like precipitation dipole. oceanic index SA: JJAS SST { 15ºN-25ºN-20ºW-30ºW } potential predicting use for winter seasonal anomalous rainfall Evaluation of the North Atlantic SST forcing on the European and Northern African winter climate, Rodríguez-Fonseca, Polo, Serrano and Castro (accepted in Int. J. Climatol.) Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM

5 Anomalous winter rainfall regime in Europe/NW Africa Subtropical North Atlantic previous summer SST anomalies CICYT/REN MEC/REN Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (2.5º x 2.5º) Mid-latitude geopotential anomalies at low stratosphere are connected to subtropical SST 3 months before and propagate downwards in 2 months Stratospheric bridge ERSST database (2º x 2º lat-lon) Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero 2005

6 part of a MCYT project, announcement Anomalous winter rainfall in Euro- Atlantic region CICYT/REN MEC/REN Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM Forcing stratospheric North Atlantic c limate variability Current studies ERA40 Reanalysis (1.125º x 1.125º) Large geopotential anomalies in the polar low stratosphere a few days before NAO extreme events propagate downwards and lead anomalies in the troposphere mean Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero 2005 LOW NAO (DJF) Standarized geopotential anomalies over 70º-90ºN;-180º-180ºE HIGH NAO (DJF) - International meetings (EGS, APMG) - 1 conference proceedings - Serrano and Rodriguez-Fonseca (2004), Revista Física de la Tierra.

7 Anomalous winter rainfall regimen in Europe /NW Africa Subtropical North Atlantic summer SST anomalies MEC/REN Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM AGCM of UCLA Physical mechanisms - International meetings (EGU) - Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., A. Robertson and R. C. Mechoso, The North Atlantic oceanic Internal Variability generating atmospheric circulation anomalies. Submitted to GRL. Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero Role of the Atlantic Ocean generating atmospheric circulation anomalies 2.Sensitivity studies using prescribed SST in the Subtropical North Atlantic. Collaboration with: UCLA (USA) Dr. C. R. Mechoso and Dr. Gabriel Caces Boeccio

8 - Polo, Losada and Rodriguez-Fonseca (2004), Revista Física de la Tierra. - Polo, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Sheinbaum, The Subsurface Subtropical North Atlantic role on the European climate variability (submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett) MCYT/REN Subtropical Atlantic Ocean subsurface temperature European Climate variability Collaboration with: CICESE (Mejico) Dr. Julio Sheimbaum and Dr. Julio Candela LODYC (Paris) Dr. Alban Lazar Subtropical Atlantic Ocean SST International meetings (APMG,EGS) Conference proceedings

9 EC/AMMA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis ( ) Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM UCLA AGCM Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero Study of the effects of SST anomalies of different ocean basins on the west african monsoon (WAM) rainfall variability. 2.Identificaton of key WAM diagnostics/variables and predictands. 3.Teleconnection between WAM and the Mediterranean climate variability. 3.Intercomparison of models.

10 Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, Febrero 2005


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