Killed Resigned Overthrown Civil War Removed Invaded, to keep status quo
MENA map Killed Resigned Overthrown Civil War Removed Invaded, to keep status quo War fatigue War fatigue Political suppression People Bought Off “Contented Monarchy” Contented Democracy
Rough estimates of deaths related to Arab Uprisings Bahrain< 100 Syria5,000 Egypt 900 Tunisia300 Libya30,000 Yemen250 Bahrain 120Syria 120,000 Egypt 1,700Tunisia 338 Libya 30,000Yemen 2,000 <10 in Algeria, Oman, Jordan, Djibouti, Somalia, Kuwait, Morocco, Lebanon, Palestine The view in late 2013, from Wikipedia: Late 2011 U.S. News
Lust et al. “After the Arab Spring: Islamism, Secularism, and Democracy (Dec. 2012)
A Political Deal in a Deeply Divided Tunisia as Islamists Agree to Yield Power Compromise has been in short supply since Tunisia sparked the Arab Spring nearly three years ago. But this small North African nation has once again broken new ground with a political deal between longtime enemies among the Islamists and the secular old guard. The deal, announced over the weekend, aims to put in place an independent caretaker government until new elections next year, marking the first time Islamists have agreed in the face of rising public anger to step back from power gained at the ballot box. New York Times, Dec. 16, 2013 This Ghannouchi is different from the former Prime Minister, Mohamed Ghannouchi Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of the Islamist party Ennahda.
Parties Agree on Leader Ahead of Vote in Tunisia CASABLANCA, Morocco — Tunisia’s political parties agreed on the selection of a new prime minister late Saturday, breaking months of political deadlock between the Islamist-led government and secular opposition parties. The current minister of industry, Mehdi Jomaa, will take over as prime minister and lead a caretaker government until elections next year. No date for the elections has been set. Mr. Jomaa, 50, is an independent technocrat who joined the current government in March after a career in the private sector. A mechanical engineer, he was a general manager at Hutchinson Aerospace, a subsidiary of the French company Total, according to Tunisian news reports. NY Times December 15, 2013
Article’s main point is that the central government does not have power and authority to impose order and safety. Thus power is wielded by tribes and other local power brokers.
Libya’s Prime Minister Ousted in Chaos Over Tanker By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and CLIFFORD KRAUSSMARCH 11, 2014 [New York Times]DAVID D. KIRKPATRICKCLIFFORD KRAUSS … The Parliament swore in the interim defense minister, Abdullah al-Thinni, for a two-week stint as acting prime minister, but there was no consensus about who might succeed him. The Parliament is disorganized, divided among lawmakers associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, those elected under the banner of a Western-friendly anti-Islamist coalition, and shifting coalitions of independents, which include ultraconservative Salafi Islamists and eclectic local notables. Libyan prime minister ousted by parliament March 11, 2014 6:52PM ET [Al-Jazeera] Western-backed leader voted out after independent militia looks to export oil using North Korea-flagged tanker LibyaLibya's parliament on Tuesday voted out Prime Minister Ali Zeidan – Libya’s first democratically-elected leader – and replaced him with the defense minister, who will act as interim prime minister until parliamentary elections slated for July. … Libya's government has been paralyzed for months by the power struggle between Islamists in parliament trying to remove Zeidan and anti-Islamist political factions. Zeidan's removal came as another fault line in the country was rumbling — between the central government and the restive eastern half of the country, where many are demanding greater autonomy. Each side has their own militias.
Newly Drafted Egyptian Constitution … is significantly more secular than the one of 2012. It guarantees absolute freedom of faith and belief. It removes a provision that would have allowed the al-Azhar Seminary to pronounce on the parts of Egyptian law directly drawn from the Muslim legal code or shariah. It forbids the formation of political parties based on religion (i.e. it bans the Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood from contesting elections, since religion is in its platform). It should be noted that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union in Germany would be illegal according to this constitution. And, I suspect, many Evangelical politicians in the Republican Party in the US would be expelled from Congress. … A referendum on the constitution will be held in January. [passed 98%] (Juan Cole’s blog Informed Comment December 1, 2013)
Religious Endowments Ministry to control all mosques [Egypt] Tue, 11/03/2014 - 16:20 Al-Masry Al-Youm Religious Endowments Minister Mohamed Mokhtar decreed on Tuesday that all mosques in Egypt are to be supervised and administered by the ministry, however small they may be. He assigned the ministry to implement the decision within a month. The minister also banned all NGOs from collecting donations inside mosques, and asked worshippers not to pay any money without taking a receipt from the mosque’s management. He instructed imams not to let anyone deliver a speech from the pulpit or give religious lessons without prior written permission from the ministry. He also said that the Friday sermon would be the same in all mosques and would be limited to large mosques only.
State committee seizes 22 Muslim Brotherhood affiliated NGOs Over 1,000 Brotherhood organisations appropriated by the government since ouster of president Mohamed Morsi in July, 2013 El-Sayed Gamal El-Deen, Wednesday 12 Mar 2014 [ahramonline] A committee tasked with appraising and freezing the funds of the Muslim Brotherhood has decided to transfer the management of 22 of the group's NGOs to a government ministry. The move on Wednesday brings the total of Brotherhood organisations appropriated by the government to 1,075, all of which are managed by the committee and the solidarity ministry, said justice ministry spokesman Judge Abdel-Abzim El-Ashry. The seizures aren't intended to halt the groups' humanitarian services but rather to place them under the ministry's direct supervision, added El-Ashry. A September court ruling banned all activities of the Brotherhood, from which ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi hails, and ordered the confiscation of the group's assets through a designated committee.
Saudis Put Terrorist Label on Muslim Brotherhood By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICKMARCH 7, 2014 [New York Times]DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK CAIRO — Saudi Arabia on Friday declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, escalating a new campaign against the group across the region with a sweeping ban that imposes lengthy prison sentences for even expressing sympathy with it.Saudi ArabiaMuslim Brotherhood The Saudi decree equates the Brotherhood, which has long denounced violence, with widely designated terrorist organizations, including Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and the Syria-based Nusra Front. 3 Gulf Countries Pull Ambassadors From Qatar Over Its Support of Islamists By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK MARCH 5, 2014 [NYTimes]DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK CAIRO — Tensions between Qatar and neighboring Persian Gulf monarchies broke out Wednesday when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors from the country over its support of the Muslim Brotherhood and allied Islamists around the region.
“Girl in the Blue Bra” Dec. 17, 2011 A veiled young woman is dragged and beaten by Egyptian military during a protest in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Her face is covered. Her torso is bare, except for her bright-blue bra; she's a millisecond away from being kicked by a solider.
economic trends can explain the Turkish Leader Disowns Trials That Helped Him Tame Military By TIM ARANGOFEB. 26, 2014 [New York Times]TIM ARANGO … Now, though, Mr. Erdogan is acknowledging what many legal and forensics experts have long said: that, in a word, the trials were a sham. He has reversed himself not because of any pangs of guilt, analysts say, but for the simple reason that the same prosecutors who targeted the military with fake evidence are now going after him.
What explains the origins and dynamics of the Arab uprisings? “[A] political economy approach has much to offer in addressing this question. Neither purely political concerns, such as the desire of populations for democracy, nor simple economic trends can explain the decisions of protestors to call for the downfall of autocratic leaders. Rather, the interaction of political factors and real and perceived economic developments brought about the uprisings… [N]arrowing authoritarian coalitions in the context of crony capitalism, the rollback of the state, and declining welfare regimes alienated formal-sector workers and tenuous middle classes… [P]erceptions of socioeconomic trends in the context of evolving political economies were at the root of mass protests.” (pages 2-3 of the separate insert, pages 408-09 of the new R&W Chapter 16) “Discontent on the economic front interacted with a broader sociopolitical context to ignite the uprisings.” (five pages later) “The explanation for the uprisings is better found in the political economy of regime consolidation than in aggregate statistics, whether one glosses them favorably or unfavorably. In addition, key policy decisions taken in the early 2000s hastened the demise of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes…” Dahi (2011 p. 1) He then describes the mistakes as accelerating liberalization after the mid-1990s, and adopting Bush’s framework of the “war on terror.” Thus, “A Rise and Fall of the [authoritarian populist] Social Contract”
Unemployment in North Africa Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
R&W Figure 16.3 Out of Pocket Spending on Health as % of Total Spending on Health Looked at as an indicator of effectiveness of government health programs; not good in Egypt. mt thinks this is a weak test.
Voice and Accountability Index Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3 Widespread, fairly continual decline at slow rates Morocco Algeria Egypt Tunisia Libya
R&W on Corruption (pp. 422ff.) “Cronyism is now seen as both the key characteristic of the economic opening that started in the 1990s and accelerated in the 2000s, and the source of many ills… [A] Pew survey reveals that in 2010 corruption was the top concern of Egyptians, … ahead of lack of democracy and poor economic conditions. (After citing Transparency International Index, states: ) Perceived corruption increased markedly in the following three years [after 2005].” They proceed to review cases in Tunisia and Egypt. Then, “Without an understanding of the military’s role in the domestic political economy, it is impossible to understand political developments during and after the uprisings.”
Other Variables/Explanations R&W’s ‘narrowing authoritarian coalition in crony capitalism, ‘ and ‘declining welfare regimes’ are not easy to measure. Dahi’s ‘Rise and Fall of the [authoritarian] Social Contract’ same problem R&W’s suggestion that there was a factor of changing perceptions makes empirical analysis quite difficult.
Quality of Democracy (Polity) and Education Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3 Hypothesized positive slope, but high variance
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
Internet and Social Networking Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
Ansani and Danielle’s Conclusions Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
The Muslim Brothers and the Arab Uprising 1. The MB did not participate in uprisings in Egypt nor Tunisia. Yet it was active clandestinely in Syria, Libya, Yemen. At the time, impression was impetus of youth, secular movements. Unions were influential in Tunisia, less so in Egypt. Stance of the Military was inconsistent across countries. 2.When elections were held in Tunisia and Egypt, the voters split between MB and others – secular, or old regime loyalists. 3. MB governance was uneven in Tunisia, chaotically amateur in Egypt. 4.MB resigned In Tunisia, was thrown out in Egypt. Egyptian population appears to be against them now. 5.Egypt’s MB was supported by Turkey and Qatar, opposed by Saudi A. 6.In several places, ‘radical’ groups have outflanked the MB. 7.mt’s conclusion: The Brothers have lost ground in Egypt, elsewhere.
mt’s Future Scenarios: At a minimum, only Tunisia has a good chance to install/maintain democracy in the short run. The monarchies will not have major changes. But when the Saudi regime falls, it will make a large crash. Can Libya and Yemen possibly evolve towards democracy? There will continue to be tests of Political Islam, which hasn’t gone away. Egypt is arguably the most important case for the US.