Presentation on theme: "Detailed Nifty Analysis 26 Feb 12. Important to re-look at the previous PPT We hope that you remember the 3 cases that we presented in the previous PPT."— Presentation transcript:
Important to re-look at the previous PPT We hope that you remember the 3 cases that we presented in the previous PPT. Now that the 3 rd case has been selected by the markets, its time to zoom in. To see things with a microscope while keeping the overall view in mind. In case you missed/forgot the PPT, please find it here: http://bit.ly/xGxXrYhttp://bit.ly/xGxXrY
5300 to 5630… As said! SBI 2070 to 2500 Exact!ONGC Exact 10% “ONLY” MARUTI 1080 to 1370!LT 1350 to 1550! Remember our Team India? Sachin Dravid Laxman Pathan Sehwag? They did actually better than the actual ones!
1)Per this theory, the whole wave of 2200-6300-4500 can be treated as one complete wave. 2)Since this is the first wave after 1 completed bull run, this should be followed by 2 further waves. 3)The only issue with this case that we can see right now is that this wave does not have 3 smaller waves, and is comprised of rather awkward patterns. 4)Given that markets broke out of 1991-2003 range with a huge margin (sensex remained range bound in that period with a cap at 6000), absence of healthy waves could mean that this is not a new bull run but just a time-pass and rangebound move. Could be time-wise correction. (price remains constant, time keeps passing by) 5)A very very sharp double top followed by direct fall (6300 to 4500) further gives our thought some more weight. So this could be a new rally (new bull run) or just a rangebound move. Move beyond 21k would tell.
Observations on Sensex: Supports once broken become resistances Resistances once broken become supports While some resistances are like doors, they open up and give way to rally, there are some which are like walls. They don’t open, they just break if bulls hit with huge force. Resistances which are formed by breaking of supports are MUCH STIFFER than the ones which are formed by itself (downchannel or triangle or any other). One such resistance has been marked.
Revisiting the first wave of bullrun. When BJP lost to UPA. This time around too the rally is huge, 2200-6300, followed by a linear downchannel. The downchannel broke this time too with a decent margin and has been stopped by exactly similar resistance (black line). What happened above is scary.
DOW JONES A break above 13040 can bring an atleast 500 points on DJI. Support 12600. At a delicate stage.
Crude: 138 not impossible. Forget Nifty, imagine petrol prices then. High 147. Petrol then was 50, diesel 35. Crude crashed to 31. Why did petrol diesel not crash accordingly? Even now its not something new, these levels were there in past many a times, then why fuel prices are soaring?
Bank Nifty Data indicates that Bank Nifty’s outperformance index has taken a breather, and sooner or later, Nifty will perform better than the Banking index. So, go long on Nifty and short on Bank Nifty.
Summarizing 5300 was one easily breakable resistance which broke and opened doors for bulls. Indeed 5637 came. Right now Nifty is hitting a stiff resistance which might or might not break. Even if it doesn’t, it does not make Nifty bearish (overall) but the path of bull might change a bit (testing supports 5240, 5000 if 5720 doesn’t breaks). Secondly, while it does look like a new bull run has started, some patterns which are usually present, are absent. Presence of sharp double top makes it look even more scary. Similar movement has happened in past, which gave lower circuit.. Even if one doesn’t assumes that it will repeat itself, one can atleast be cautious and vigilant about it. Straight line vertical upsides usually see some profit booking, and make part-2… So, resistance 5660-5700. Support 5240 5000. Buy above 5525 SL 5480 tgt 5602, 5660, 5720. Sell below 5440 SL 5485 tgt 5391 5237. Major rally above 5720 ONLY (FUT).