1. SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR 2007 AND PROVISIONAL PROJECTIONS FOR THE YEARS 2008-2010 AND LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES White Paper Robert Aymar 16 Octobre 2006

2. June 2006 MTP The medium-term plan for the years 2006 to 2010 (CERN/SPC/872- CERN/FC/5052-CERN/2677) presented to the Council and its Committees in June 2006 was an update of the 2005 medium-term plan to take account of: the new LHC schedule and the impact of the revised Cost-to- Completion for the years 2006 and 2007; the decisions taken by the Council in 2005 concerning Member States’ contributions as from 2006 onwards; In June 2006 the Management announced that it would submit an updated 2006 MTP to take account of the outcome of the July Lisbon Council Session. This update is set out in the White Paper.

3. Financial position of the Organization (June 2006 MTP) Consequences of the 1996 decision on the LHC: –scheduled drastic reduction in manpower and budget resources up to 2010; –financial crisis of 2002; –rescheduling of LHC completion; –covering of the financial shortfall with a Budget deficit financed by EIB and short-term bank loans to be repaid up to 2011; –computing needs not identified or costed at the time of LHC approval; resources shortfall for LCG-2, to be found within existing Budget resources.

4. Consequences for Future Programmes 1. The reduction in financial and human resources linked to the 1996 LHC decision is NOT compatible with operation of the LHC PLUS a vigorous R&D programme. 2. The resources available up to 2010 are sufficient ONLY for “routine” operations of the LHC and other facilities and infrastructure. 3. They are INSUFFICIENT to implement the accelerator and detector R&D and LHC luminosity upgrade goals outlined in the Strategy Statement.

5. Components of June 2006 MTP Main scientific components of the June 2006 Medium-Term Plan (CERN/SPC/872-CERN/FC/5052-CERN/2677) are as follows: LHC programme –Construction of the LHC accelerator, transfer lines, CERN contribution to the LHC experiments and LHC Computing Grid Project (including EGEE); LHC operation: initial operation at 900 GeV in the centre of mass and first physics run in 2008 with acceleration of the beams to 7 TeV; Non-LHC programme –Conversion of LEAR into a high-intensity low-energy ion storage ring; –CLIC-CTF3 Facility; –EU Contracts: ESGARD; CARE; EUROTEV, DIRAC and EURISOL; –TT; –SPS: COMPASS (NA58); NA48/3; CLOUD; CNGS –PS : DIRAC (PS212) –Antiproton Decelerator (AD); –Isolde (REX); n-TOF –CAST.

6. The European Strategy for particle physics

7. First Theme Highest priority programme: completion of LHC machine and experiments and optimal operation at design energy over the years 2008-2010 – –CERN contribution to completing four experiments, including the ECAL end caps of CMS (~ 24 MCHF); – –Enhancement of the capabilities of data analysis by more Research Physicists on LD contracts; P = 78 FTE; – –consolidation and improvements to enhance LHC luminosity short- term (towards 10 34 /cm 2 s), which include: 1. 1. building the second phase - full performance collimators and the dilution kickers; M + P = 9 MCHF + 10 FTE; 2. 2. improvements in LHC beam controls: M + P = 19 MCHF + 50 FTE; 3. 3. basic infrastructure consolidation items: M + P = 27 MCHF + 70 FTE. 4. 4. New power supply for the PS; M+P = 15 MCHF + 15 FTE. Multiturn extraction for PS; M + P = 9 MCHF + 23 FTE. Total M + P = 103 MCHF and 246 FTE.

8. Second Theme Second highest priority: renovation of entire injector complex to ensure reliability of LHC operation (2011): – –replacement of PS by a 50 GeV machine; – –replacement of Linac 2 and Booster with a new injector, Linac 4, and probably a superconducting proton linac (SPL). In the period up to 2011: – –design of future PS; P = 30 FTE – –and the SPL;P = 40 FTE – –construction of Linac 4.M + P = 55 MCHF and 115 FTE. Total M + P = 55 MCHF and 185 FTE.

9. Third Theme The Third Theme: LHC upgrade and accelerator and detector R&D Five components: 1. 1.R&D on high-field superconducting magnets, a pulsed field magnet for a possible superconducting version of PS and on superconducting quadrupoles for a neutrino facility. M + P = 22 MCHF and 80 FTE. 2. 2.Study of the possible cryogenic upgrade for cooling the LHC IR (to be implemented after 2010) P = 20 FTE. 3. 3.For increased LHC luminosity, 1.2 GHz and 160/240 MHz, RF improved capture systems in SPS and LHC; M + P: 10 MCHF and 55 FTE. 4. 4.Development: tracking detectors and calorimeters (LHC and CLIC), microelectronics and opto-electronics. Improved triggering, DAQ and controls; M + P = 24 MCHF + 72 FTE. 5. 5.Enhancement of CLIC qualifying programme with CTF3; M + P = 12 MCHF + 60 FTE. Total M + P = 68 MCHF + 287 FTE (excluding NbTi quadrupoles).

10. Fourth Theme (To be partly funded by CERN (tentative estimates) with external contributions.) The components of this Theme are: 1. 1.multipurpose SC cavity test facility; M + P = 10 MCHF + 20 FTE (?) 2. 2.R&D on high-power targets for neutrino production: M + P = 6 MCHF + 35 FTE (?) 3. 3.Electron cooler for the antiproton ring: M + P = 4 MCHF + 20 FTE (?) 4. 4.NA-48 experiment (Phase 3): M + P < 6 MCHF + 10 FTE (?) 5. 5.High Intensity and Energy Isolde project (HIE - Isolde): M + P = 15 MCHF + 60 FTE (?) Tentative estimate of overall CERN contribution: M + P = 41 MCHF + 145 FTE (?)

11. Conclusion Total M + P resources for the first three Themes = 226 MCHF and 718 FTE respectively. (216 MCHF and 643 FTEs with minimum third Theme). External contributions and planning flexibility over the period 2008- 2010 may decrease the amount of M + P resources needed by an assumed 10%, i.e. 190 MCHF and 570 FTE respectively. Planned staff reduction limited to 2250 FTEs in 2008 and the complement kept constant until 2010. Request for additional 240 MCHF (M + P = 190 MCHF and 50 MCHF or 400 FTEs) to be shared equally between the Host States through a special voluntary contribution and all the Member States. 170 FTEs to be found through further cuts in administrative and mechanical sectors. Management request for additional resources limited by realistic assumption of possibilities in Member States. Minimum needed to carry out Themes 1-3. Fourth Theme not financed within the proposed additional level of resources.

12. Table 4: Additional resources with respect to CERN/2677 required for new activities

13. Prospects for scientific activities over the period 2011-2016 To be decided in 2010-2011 in light of first physics results from LHC. This programme could comprise: 1. 1.An LHC luminosity increase requiring a new injector (SPL and PS). The total cost of the investment over 6 years (2011-2016: 1000-1200 MCHF + a staff of 200-300 per year. Total budget: ~ 200-250 MCHF per year. 2. 2.Preparation of a Technical Design for the CLIC programme after the LHC upgrade (decision in 2016). Total CERN M + P contribution = ~ 250 MCHF + 1000 - 1200 FTE over 6 years. The manpower needed for preparation of the CLIC Technical Design together with the LHC upgrade will require a modest increase in the annual budget of about 35 MCHF. 3. 3.Enhanced infrastructure consolidation : 30 MCHF + 40 FTEs from 2011.

14. NB: Over the period 2011-2016, effective participation of CERN in another large programme (ILC or a neutrino factory) will not be possible within the expected resources if positive decisions taken on LHC upgrade and CLIC Technical Design. This situation could totally change if none of the above programmes is approved or if a new, more ambitious level of activities and support is envisaged in the European framework.

15. Table 5: Estimated Budget Balances (2006 prices, MCHF, without internal taxation)

17. Octobre 2006 Manpower Situation 1. 1996 LHC decision Council decided to reduce CERN’s staff strength to about 2000 FTEs from 2005 onwards from a peak of some 3800 in the mid-seventies. 2. This plan was updated in December 2002 by the Human Resources Plan which allowed for an increase of manpower during the LHC construction period, compensated by a further staff reduction until 2010. 3. Due to the absolute priority attributed to completing construction of the LHC machine, its detectors and the computing, the Management has continued to support the LHC construction with more manpower until 2007. 4. Current staff numbers stand at 2650, the cost of which has to be compensated by a reduction in 2008 to 2010. Collaborating Laboratories provided about 100 project associates for about 18 months for completion of LHC machine

18. Octobre 2006 Figure 1: Personnel strength history

19. Octobre 2006 Staff number evolution In 2006 total staff complement (without Fellows and Associates) = 2594 members (1680 IC and 914 LD), excluding contracts financed by external contributions. Staff retirement rate assumption = around 100 per annum until 2010 (it will then reduce to about 50 per annum in 2012). A decrease to a complement of about 2000 in 2010 can be planned and managed appropriately by granting IC positions to LD contract holders according to requirements and by progressively reducing the total number of LD contracts. In short, the current Medium Term Plan (CERN/2677) does not make provision for sufficient manpower and material resources either to ensure fully reliable operation of the LHC and its infrastructure or to support R&D activities such as those aimed at proving the feasibility of CLIC and at preparing for a LHC luminosity upgrade by 2015. The Management is therefore requesting that the staff strength be increased in 2010 by some 250 FTEs, to be funded by the increased contributions by Member States proposed in the White Paper relating to the scientific activities and budget estimates.

20. Octobre 2006 Comprehensive Manpower Review Comprehensive bottom-up review of existing skills and competences and future requirements at Departmental level carried out. Fundamental criterion for definition of Manpower Policy: Once LHC project is completed, manpower policy at CERN must be driven by: –“routine” operation of CERN’s facilities, including the LHC machine detectors and computing; –full exploitation of the LHC’s potential; –R&D projects in line with the strategy proposals in the revised MTP (White Paper).

21. Octobre 2006 Results of Comprehensive Manpower Review 1. A staff of some 2000 FTEs in 2010 only makes it possible to run CERN’s facilities and to operate the LHC at a minimum level as “pure routine activities” (which they are not!) 2. A minimum of 250 additional FTEs will be required in 2010 above the planned 2000 for: –Reliable operation of the LHC and associated consolidation and maintenance operations will require a minimum of 100 FTEs in 2010 in addition to the level funded in the existing Medium-Term Plan; – technology development and focused R&D to allow for preparation of the LHC upgrade will require additional manpower of approximately 150 FTEs in 2010. 3. 3. A gradual decrease from the present staff complement of 2650 to 2250 (instead of ~2000) in 2010.

22. Octobre 2006 Table 1 Situation in 2006 by function including expertise, for reference

23. Octobre 2006 Figure 4: Existing commitments with respect to available funding

24. Octobre 2006 Figure 5: All staff categories forecast

25. Octobre 2006 Conclusion Overall additional manpower requirement for Themes 1 to 3 = 570 FTEs; The Management is requesting 240 MCHF in additional resources (M + P = 190 MCHF + 50 MCHF) over the years 2008-2010; Increase FTEs integrated over three-year period 2008 to 2010 by 400 with respect to June 2006 MTP; Gradual reduction in the staff complement from 2650 in 2006 to 2250 (instead of some 2000) and then remain constant until 2010; 170 additional FTEs to be obtained by further reductions in the administrative and mechanical sectors. Additional 400 FTEs integrated over the years 2008 to 2010 with respect to the level funded in the current Medium-Term Plan is the minimum necessary to fully exploit the LHC and to allow for focused R&D