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The Futures of Baltic Education 2012 and Beyond … Arthur Harkins OLPD University of Minnesota.

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Presentation on theme: "The Futures of Baltic Education 2012 and Beyond … Arthur Harkins OLPD University of Minnesota."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Futures of Baltic Education 2012 and Beyond … Arthur Harkins OLPD University of Minnesota

2 Education & Learning Futures for Baltic Youth Arthur Harkins, Assoc. Prof., UMN Faculty Director, Leapfrog Institutes Faculty Director, Innovation Studies

3 Baltic Student Futures Responses to Global Trends driving Labor Force Need Shifts. Technology Drivers Behind These Shifts, Ranging From the Prosaic to the Contemporary to the Futuristic to the Fantastic to the Magical.

4 Baltic Student Futures Response to Global Trends driving: Labor Force Need Shifts Technology Drivers Behind These Shifts Eight Education Scenarios Coming Up Problem I: Which Scenarios to Accept?

5 Baltic Student Futures Where Some Nations Are Now: Just Entering the Continuous Innovation Age (Star Collar Workers).

6 Baltic Student Futures What Leaders Are Gradually ‘Norming’: the Knowledge Age (Plaid Collar Workers).

7 Baltic Student Futures Some in Leading Nations Behave as Though Education is Preparing Youth for the Information Age (White Collar Work).

8 Baltic Student Futures The Information Age is Departing the Leaders, Bound for India, China, and other Countries.

9 Baltic Student Futures USA k-12 Recently Attempted a Retreat to the Rote Memory Industrial Age (Blue Collar Work).

10 Baltic Student Futures And, Most Societies Still Persist in Scheduling Education Around the Growing Season (Gray Collar Work).

11 Baltic Student Futures What Are the Technologies That Have Created Such Rapid Change? We ’ ll Proceed in Three Ten-Year Intervals…

12 The Next Ten Years Wireless Digital From Orbit and on Ground Will Place Many Systems of Higher Education in Competition. Wide-band Wireless Will Be Operational and Cheap by 2015 in Many Parts of the World. Wired and Wireless Digital Will Enable Global 24/365 Educational Services.

13 The Next Ten Years Smart Agents Added to Wired/Wireless: Digital Will Permit Individualized Learning Contracts for ALL Students, Including All Those Who Are Part-Time, OJT, or Fully/Semi Retired. Physical Campuses: Will Be Reassessed to Identify Their Best Roles in the Context of Wired/Wireless Education.

14 The Next Ten Years The Purpose of Education Will Have Shifted: Knowledge Based Learning for Knowledge Industries & Institutions. About 75% of the Workforce Will Be Inventing Their Knowledge Work. Most of the Remainder Will Be Innovation Workers.

15 The Next Twenty Years Intelligent Agents, Connecting Wired/Wirelessly to Cranial Implants, Will Permit Anticipatory Uses of Multi-Sensory Experiential Learning Services, Many of Them Informal, Non-Formal, and 24/7.

16 The Next Twenty Years The Social and Personal Distinctions Among Living, Learning and Working Will Continue to Break Down. The Venue for All Learning Will Be the Individual ’ s Own Body (and Consciousness & Pre-Consciousness).

17 The Next Twenty Years Learning Will Become Situation-Specific to Improve the Practical Outcomes of Each Learning Service Application.

18 The Next Twenty Years Learners Will Upload Their Experiences to Learning (and other) Services as Part of a ‘ Prosumer ’ Process, Thereby Offsetting a Percentage of Their Learning Expenses. This Will Also Become the Process of Establishing a Unique Global Mind Print and Expression of Personal Capital for Each Individual.

19 The Next Twenty Years The Purpose of Education Will Have Shifted to Knowledge Based Learning for Continuous Innovation Societies, Based on Software That Replaces Repetitive Human Labor When/Wherever Possible. Knowledge Workers and Innovation Workers Are Distributed About 50-50%.

20 The Next Thirty Years The Average Person Living in an Advanced Society Will Be a Functional Cyborg, Accessing ‘ Adjunct Brains ’ to be Called Into Service as Needed. ‘ Adjunct Brains ’ Will Be Artificial, But Will Be Modeled on the Human Central Nervous System Other Capabilities Will Be Modeled on the Autonomic System and the Endocrine-Based Affect System.

21 The Next Thirty Years One Thousand ‘ Adjunct Brains ’ Will Fit Into a Shoebox. In 2040, This Number Will Become At Least One Million…. Both of These Capability Levels Will Cost $1,000 (in year 2000 dollars). Source: Ray Kurzweil (The Age of Spiritual Machines).

22 The Next Thirty Years Advanced Societies Will Be Innovation Entities Focused on: Alpha Development (new services and products) and… Beta Development (debugging & improving new services and products).

23 The Next Thirty Years The Purpose of Education Will Have Shifted to Innovation Workers Augmented by Artificial Intelligence. An Emerging Percentage of Top Workers Will be Engaged in Long-Range Visioning, Planning, and Prototyping of Alternative Reality Frames.

24 What Do These Changes Imply for the Development of Baltic Youth?

25 Eight Heuristic Scenarios for Baltic Student Futures

26 #1 Student-Centered Scenario (Individuality Product) Uniqueness Development Focus Creates Graduates Capable of Functioning as Articulate, Proactive Individualists.

27 #2 Think Tank Scenario (Knowledge Worker Product) Innovation Focus Creates Graduates Capable of Joining the Workforce as Full- Fledged Knowledge Workers (People Who Invent All or Most of Their Own Work).

28 #3 Free Electronic Higher Education/On-Campus Development Teams Scenario (Collaboration Product) Opportunity Focus Creates Graduates Who Have Worked in Teams to Produce Patented or Copyright Materials While Learning ‘ Basics ’ Through Free Advertiser- Supported Learning Services.

29 #4 Student Services-Based Curriculum Scenario (Student Culture Product) Graduates Who Have Matured Within a Student Culture Nurtured by Redefined and Upgraded Student Services. Graduates Leave Formal Education Able to Work Well With Graduates of Similar Programs.

30 #5 Global/International Learning Scenario (Global Citizen Product) Holistic Approach Creates Graduates Who Can Work Within Emerging Global Cultures. These Graduates Utilize Language Translation Devices and In-Country Experiences Within Global Systems Development Models.

31 #6 Old Economy Personnel Development Scenario (Employee Product) Talent/Interest Development Approach Permits Business and Industry the Opportunity to Locate Potential Star Employees Earlier in Life. Chosen Students Are Financially Supported Throughout Schooling While Acting as Apprentices.

32 #7 Home LearningScenario (Family Centered Convenience Product) Domestic Venue Permits Wide Age-Range Access to Services. Co-Generated Curriculum Choices. Domestic Experiential Learning Options. Campus- & Age-Free Services; Innovations Aided by Learners and Family Consultants.

33 #8 Experiential Innovation Scenario (Innovation Centered Industry and Artistic Products) Students Are Selected for Their Capacity to Integrate Knowledge Products. Their Education is Experiential in Advanced Contexts. They Are Paid to Engage in Education, And/or They Are Charged Nothing While in School.

34 Implications of the Scenarios What Might Be Major Impacts of Such Alternative Futures in Baltic States?

35 Applied Learning Implcations Increasing Irrelevance of Age. Increasing Irrelevance of Gender. Increasing Irrelevance of Nationality. Increasing Irrelevance of Social Class. Increasing Relevance of Technology. Increasing Relevance of Youth Inclusion and Reassessment.

36 Extension of the Scenarios What Are Your Thoughts? Will You Help Construct Alternative Futures for the Youth of Central Europe?

37 Extension of the Scenarios How Might the Futures of Youth in The Baltics Compare With North America? Japan? China? India? How Should They Compare?

38 Extension of the Scenarios May We Discuss These and Related Types of Questions?

39 WARNING! (through a Peanuts paraphrase) “ There are no education futures so big or so important that they can ’ t be delayed -- or run away from! ”


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