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Moving into iron ore, targeting Africa Africa Iron Ore Conference Presentation by Ernst Venter Executive General Manager, Business Growth Exxaro Resources.

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Presentation on theme: "Moving into iron ore, targeting Africa Africa Iron Ore Conference Presentation by Ernst Venter Executive General Manager, Business Growth Exxaro Resources."— Presentation transcript:

1 Moving into iron ore, targeting Africa Africa Iron Ore Conference Presentation by Ernst Venter Executive General Manager, Business Growth Exxaro Resources Ltd 7 June 2011

2 Disclaimer Opinions expressed herein are by nature subjective to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Changing information or circumstances may cause the actual results, plans and objectives of Exxaro Resources Limited (the “Company”) to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements. Financial forecasts and data given herein are estimates based on the reports prepared by experts who in turn relied on management estimates. Undue reliance should not be placed on such opinions, forecasts or data. No representation is made as to the completeness or correctness of the opinions, forecasts or data contained herein. Neither the Company, nor any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives accepts any responsibility for any loss arising from the use of any opinion expressed or forecast or data herein. Forward-looking statements apply only as of the date on which they are made and the Company does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of its opinions or forward looking statements whether to reflect new data or future events or circumstances.

3 The iron ore landscape Historical Only a few large players Long life mines High quality products Long-term contracts with steel mills Current Dozens of players Also small, short life mines Lower quality products Spot market and trader sales Future More large players and dozens of small players Cost effective mines Importance of magnetite will increase More consolidation by majors Increasing use of beneficiation on lower grade ore Increasing demand for value add products Source: Gindalbie Metals Ltd, Global Iron and Steel Forecast Conference - March 2009, Exxaro Resources 2011

4 PriceCost Quality REVENUE Iron ore fundamentals

5 World steel demand World iron ore demand World seaborne iron ore demand World Steel Demand Intensity of use Scenario analyses Historic lead or lag to GDP Regression analyses Methodology - Demand driven - Various approaches on steel demand

6 Growth in fines exports has primarily been due to the demand from China where blast furnaces are traditionally oriented towards sintered fines Fines represents the majority of seaborne trade and is also the fastest growing product Source: AME Iron ore fundamentals Mix of seaborne iron ore

7 Iron ore fundamentals Sector themes – Price outlook UBS forecasts a deficit in global iron ore supply over the next 3 to 4 years, translating into strong iron ore prices. These prices are expected to reduce in 2014/15 as key infrastructure developments debottleneck new supply in Australia and globally

8 8 Iron ore fundamentals Source: UBS, May 2011 However, an emerging view from analysts in the sector is that the risk is to the upside with a large percentage of the new forecast supply expected to experience delays and significant capex increases

9 Source: Macquarie (2010) As the volumes of the high quality ore depletes, this curve will compact to the left AFRICA IRON ORE Projected iron ore curve

10 Africa, underlying potential Major issues for investors: Security of tenure Perception of country risk Exploration requirements Lack of infrastructure Capital intensity Quality of iron ore deposits … however … Significant number of acquisitions in the past few years Despite substantial premiums to market, buy-in is relatively “cheap” Did you know: China has invested over US$25bn in Africa since 2001

11 Essential selection criteria Governments play a key role in protecting the assets of their countries Governments are becoming increasingly impatient with companies not developing projects Perceived increase in political risk in Africa Political risk Lack of credible local partners Lack of available funding to locals - free carried approach Lack of technical expertise required to develop projects Partnering with locals Mining legislation and participation/role of governments in projects Lack of independent or impartial regulators in some countries Enforceability of contracts Ability to repatriate funds as required Understanding regulatory environment Lack of infrastructure development and maintenance Highly capital intensity and impact on project timelines Access to infrastructure (power and transport) Non existent or shallow capital markets Low or unrated African countries impose sovereign ceiling and adversely impact access to debt markets Access to capital

12 Risk mitigation TOOLS USED TO MITIGATE POLITICAL RISK IN EMERGING MARKETS

13 Countries most likely to be developed 13 Guinea Liberia Republic of Congo Mauritania Sierra Leone Cameroon Major companies involved in African projects will assist in bringing stability to the region Countries like Senegal, Angola, Gabon, Ivory Coast and Madagascar will follow

14 What is happening?

15 … but, Africa is not for the faint hearted!


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