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Investing in Oil and Gas: West Africa Growth IP Week, London 2013 Austin Avuru MD / CEO SEPLAT Petroleum Development Company.

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Presentation on theme: "Investing in Oil and Gas: West Africa Growth IP Week, London 2013 Austin Avuru MD / CEO SEPLAT Petroleum Development Company."— Presentation transcript:

1 Investing in Oil and Gas: West Africa Growth IP Week, London 2013 Austin Avuru MD / CEO SEPLAT Petroleum Development Company

2 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global and regional energy growth and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. 1

3 Source: BP statistical review of world energy 2012 Introduction  Estimated 2.8% of world oil (68 bn barrels) is in Sub-Saharan Africa  44 bn barrels in the Gulf of Guinea  Oil and gas play strategic role in economies of West African countries giving them power and influence on world stage  Africa's contribution to world reserves has increased from ~7.0 per cent in 1995 to ~ 8 per cent in 2011  Growing reserves in Libya, Nigeria and Angola  Trend likely to continue with new discoveries announced in Ghana, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Mozambique, and Uganda in 2011  West Africa is new petroleum province with multi billion barrel potential  The majors are there, and so are many smaller players 2 Africa is on an upward growth curve. This growth is underpinned by a longer-term process of economic and regulatory reform that has occurred across much of the continent. Ernst and Young

4 West African Resources 3 Country Commercial Discovery First prod Reserves, 1/1/2012 Oil, BbblsGas, Tcf NIGERIA GHANA MAURITANIA COTE D’IVOIRE CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA GABON CHAD CONGO ANGOLA NIGERIA GHANA 3 MAURITANIA 4 COTE D’IVOIRE 5 CAMEROON 6 EQUATORIAL GUINEA GABON 7 8 CHAD 9 CONGO 10 ANGOLA Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 / US EIA

5 Significant Reserves Growth Three broad bands of Club Membership 4 Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 / US EIA Angola, Nigeria, Gabon, Cameroon, Chad Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Congo RECENT Mauritania, Ghana

6 Significant Reserves Growth  Oil and gas activity in West Africa extends from Mauritania to Angola  Nigeria and Angola have largest reserves, ~ 86% of the total sub- region’s reserves as of January 2012  New production countries - Chad, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Mauritania - have joined Nigeria, Angola, Cameroon in sub-region  Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and Mauritania have all discovered oil in commercial quantities  Sub-Saharan African countries compete with each other to attract investment Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 / US EIA

7 Where Will Future Growth Come From?  Since 2007, West Africa has seen more success in exploration than other regions of the world – making it attractive for investment  West Africa Transform Margin, deepwater West Africa, and offshore East Africa are the areas currently attracting most exploration interest  Since Jubilee discovery in 2007, companies are exploring others parts of region (Ghana to Mauritania), looking for analogous Cretaceous turbidite prospects  Offshore explorations in Sierra Leone and the Cote D’Ivoire look promising, making them high potential areas for investment beyond Nigeria and Angola  In Sub-Saharan Africa an estimated 40 bn plus barrels of oil equivalent exist in technical reserves – most of it in Niger Delta Basin  An estimated additional 55 bn barrels oil equivalent in yet-to-find resources, the second biggest region in the world after Latin America 6 Source: Wood Mackenzie

8 Oil and Gas Future Growth Deepwater activities in West Africa mostly carried out by majors; circa 80,000 sq km acreage in their possession Mid-sized companies hold about 46,000 sq km of acreage in the West African transform margin 7 Sources: Wood Mackenzie

9 Opportunities For Investment  Opportunities exist for mid-sized companies to enter a market at the beginning of its growth story and therefore maximize returns  Companies with position in frontier regions stand to gain as plays mature.  Opportunity for divestment is expected over the coming years as larger companies give way to smaller independents and indigenous companies due to local content policies  We expect to see more M&A activity in future, driven by majors ► As opportunities are further squeezed, consolidation across the sector will accelerate ► Competition will continue to intensify ► With dwindling opportunities and stronger players, the market will tighten 8 Sources: Wood Mackenzie / Petroleum Africa

10 Challenges  Investment Mix ► Bid rounds still cheapest entry into West African market. ► Conventional assets are in decline in mature basins, e.g. Niger Delta, and come with fiscal tightening ► Focus increasingly on exploration in frontier plays where fiscal terms are less onerous ► Discoveries and existing resources are more expensive limited by financial conservatism ► M&A appetite not too strong and most expensive  Security risks, war and political tensions are some of the issues preventing growth in the sector  Business environment ► Market price constraints ► Lack of enabling business infrastructure for investment to thrive ► Threat of cost inflation 9 Sources: Wood Mackenzie

11 Summary  Africa’s place as a significant producer and net exporter of oil in the world is forecast to grow to ~ 15% by 2020 due to new discoveries in West Africa and East Africa  Significant growth potential exists in West African sub-region  According to Wood Mackenzie, there are ~ 40 bn barrels of discovered but undeveloped reserves plus 55 bn barrels of yet-to-find  Clear opportunities for investment as exploration activities in offshore deepwater West Africa recorded highest success rate in the world during 2007 – 2012  Investment opportunities exist in sub-region from exploration in frontier areas to the acquisition of mature assets, where secondary discoveries (deeper plays and by- passed plays) have recorded high success rate  Investment mix of exploration, DROs and M&As are available 10 Sources: Wood Mackenzie

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