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Analysts: Su Chen Gina Huang Xuhao Yang Jonathan Barki Date: November 10 th, 2011 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Analysts: Su Chen Gina Huang Xuhao Yang Jonathan Barki Date: November 10 th, 2011 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Analysts: Su Chen Gina Huang Xuhao Yang Jonathan Barki Date: November 10 th, 2011 1

2  RCMP currently holds 500 shares of WAG, bought on 6 th Oct 1999 at the price of $25  For the previous trade day, WAG closed at $ 31.72 @11/9/2011  Holding value is 16% of total portfolio value 2 Portfolio Position

3 Product Class 3

4 Walgreen Drug Retail Market Share 4

5 Margin Analysis 5

6 Dupont Analysis 6

7 Slow Store Growth 7

8 Treasury Stock Plan 8

9 Past 5 Year Stock Performance 9 Source: Yahoo Finance

10 Stock Performance Comparison 10 Source: WSJ

11 Industry Structure 11 Mature Life Cycle Stage Low Revenue Volatility Medium Capital Intensity Medium Concentration Level Medium Regulation Level Medium Barriers to Entry Low Industry Globalization High Competition Level Source: IBIS World

12 Per capita disposable income 12  Per capita disposable income determines an individual's ability to purchase goods or services  Positive job growth and lower savings will lead to an annual growth rate of 1.6% over the outlook period, but the growth will be hindered by higher tax rates needed to balance the fiscal deficit. Source: IBISWorld

13 Number of adults over 65 years old 13  Older people are more likely to require medical attention or assistance  Baby boomers have started reaching the age of 65, resulting in growth of over 3% a year  The expansion of this group will be aided by further medical innovations, superior nutrition and improved safety Source: US Census Bureau

14 Number of people with private health insurance 14  The number of people with private health insurance has declined during the five years to 2011, in response to the poor economic environment.  The number of people with private health insurance is forecast to increase considerably during the five years to 2016, particularly in 2014, when a health insurance exchange will be initiated.  Ultimately, 32 million previously uninsured individuals are forecast to gain coverage by 2019. Source: US Census Bureau

15 Federal funding for Medicare and Medicaid 15  Medicaid is geared towards people with low incomes and Medicare covers almost everyone 65 or older  The Congressional Budget Office projects that Federal funding for Medicare and Medicaid will rise at 6.70% per year to surpass a trillion dollars by 2016. This growth  Funding for Medicare rises at a high but largely stable rate. This is because changes are driven by demographic shifts which occur predictably and slowly over time. Meanwhile, Medicaid expenditures fluctuate in accordance with the business cycle making it more volatile. Source: Office of Management and Budget

16  When the patent of a brand name medication expires, a generic version of the drug can be produced and sold.  Generic drugs are as safe and effective as the brand name equivalent, with exactly the same ingredients, but are much cheaper  In general, generic drugs generate lower total sales dollars per prescription, but higher gross profit margins, compared with patent-protected brand name drugs.  Generic drugs are more profitable for wholesalers because of the enhanced bargaining position with generic manufacturers 16 Generic drugs VS brand name drugs

17 17 Big Three Wholesalers, Revenues and Gross Profits, Brand vs. Generic Drugs Source: Pembroke Consulting estimates Generic drugs represent about 9% of revenues but 56% of gross profits

18 Walgreens to benefit from expiring patents Patents to expire in 2011 23% of Walgreens’ prescription drugs sales Patents to expire in 2012 42% of Walgreens’ prescription drugs sales 18 Patent Expiring Company2010 U.S. sales LipitorPfizer$5,329M ZyprexaEli Lily$2,496M LevaquinJohnson& Johnson $1,312M ConcertaJohnson& Johnson $929M ProtonixPfizer$690M Patent Expiring Company2010 U.S. sales PlavixSanofi$6,154M SeroquelAstrazeneca$3,747M SingulairMerck$3,224M ActosTakeda$3,351M EnbrelAmgen$3,304 Source: IBIS World

19 Biggest drugstore chain VS Top three PBMs  Walgreens failed to agree on new contract terms with Express Script, one of the three largest Pharmacy Benefit Managers(PBM)  The break-up with Express Script will cost Walgreens about $5 billion in annual sales, or about seven percent of its business. 19

20  Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) is a third party administrator of prescription drug programs, primarily responsible for processing and paying prescription drug claims.  PBMs like Express Scripts and Medco are patients' first point of contact with the pharmaceutical supply chain. These PBMs are using their massive scale to wield stronger bargaining power over retailers, and are encouraging consumers to switch to their own low-cost mail-order facilities instead of retail drugstores  As a result, retail drugstores like Walgreens are facing unprecedented reimbursement and competitive pressure. Pharmacy Benefit Manager(PBM) 20

21  Many organizations in the healthcare industry, including pharmacy benefit managers, have consolidated in recent years to create larger healthcare enterprises with greater market power, which has resulted in greater pricing pressures to WAG  Two of the three largest pharmacy benefit managers, Medco Health Solutions, Inc. and Express Scripts, Inc., announced an agreement to merge in July 2011, completion of which is subject to regulatory and other conditions.  If this consolidation trend continues, it may lead to further pressure on the prices for our products and services and adversely affect our business. 21 Consolidation in the healthcare industry

22 Closest Competitors CVS:  The Pharmacy Services segment provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services, mail order services specialty pharmacy services, plan design and administration and claims processing.  The Retail Pharmacy segment sells prescription drugs and general merchandise. General merchandise include over-the-counter drugs, beauty products, cosmetics, film and photo finishing services, greeting cards, and convenience foods. Rite Aid:  Rite Aid sells prescription drugs and front end products. Front end products include over-the-counter medications, health and beauty aids, personal care items, cosmetics, household items, beverages, convenience foods, greeting cards, seasonal merchandise, photo processing, and other everyday products.

23 Concerns LIFO Inventory Reporting  Effects Costs of Goods Sold  Net Income and EBIT Operating Property Leases as oppose to Capital Property Leases  Overstates Operating Expenditure  Impacts Net Income and EBIT  Understates Debt  Impacts Enterprise Value  Must be taken into consideration with Multiples Cutting ties with Express Scripts  $5.3 billion sales lost, 7% overall sales  Effect earnings by 50 cents

24 Final Price 24 $34.31 DCF $33.24 Multiple 1 $35.53 Multiple 2 $41.66 80% 10%

25 Our Recommendation 25 Stock price as of (11/9/2011): $31.72 HOLD

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