1. Improved Conjunction Analysis via Collaborative SSA T.S. Kelso, D. Vallado (CSSI) J. Chan, B. Buckwalter (Intelsat)

2. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 2 of 26 Overview Motivation Background Proposed Solution Validation SOCRATES-GEO Future Enhancements Summary & Conclusions

3. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 3 of 26 Motivation Recent events emphasize need for improved SSA for conjunction analysis –Chinese ASAT test (2007 Jan 11) 2,529 pieces cataloged to date (only 49 decayed) –USA 193 intercept (2008 Feb 21) 174 pieces cataloged (1 still on orbit) –ISS maneuver to avoid Cosmos 2421 debris (2008 Aug) 509 pieces cataloged (48 still on orbit) –Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision (2009 Feb 10) 999 pieces cataloged to date (822 public); only 6 decayed –ISS evacuation (2009 Mar 12), move (2009 Mar 22)

4. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 4 of 26 SATCAT Growth: 1957 to Present

5. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 5 of 26 Motivation at GEO Geostationary orbit (GEO) is a limited resource –More satellites = more conjunctions 30 payloads launched in 2008 >369 active payloads –Implications of a collision are significant Potential loss of colliding satellites and associated revenues Increase in debris, putting other satellites at risk

6. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 6 of 26 Background Conjunction analysis needs full-catalog orbital data –TLEs are currently the only such source Low accuracy results in high false-alarm rate Current system limited to non-cooperative tracking –US SSN uses combination of radar and optical resources Operational satellites most difficult to track due to maneuvers –Maneuvers typically not known ahead of time –Delays in detecting maneuvers can result in poor accuracy or even ‘lost’ satellites –Requires more SSA resources to maintain orbits

7. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 7 of 26 Proposed Solution Satellite operators already maintain orbits –Active ranging, GPS can be very accurate Develop Data Center to collect operator data –Use operator data to improve conjunction analysis –Provide analysis/data to all contributors Current Data Center participation (133+35) –Intelsat (55+6), Inmarsat (11), EchoStar (6), SES (41+1: Astra, New Skies, Americom), NOAA (4), Star One (6), Telesat (6+18), EUMETSAT (4) Pending: IAI (3), Paradigm (7)

8. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 8 of 26 Analysis of Orbital Data Sources Many sources of operator orbital data –Direct from satellite operator (Data Center) –Public sources GPS (almanacs, precise ephemerides) GLONASS (precise ephemerides) Intelsat (11-parameter data, ephemerides) NOAA, EUMETSAT (state vectors) Challenges –User-defined data formats –Variety of coordinate frames & time systems used

9. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 9 of 26 Supplemental TLEs Uses public orbital data –GPS almanacs –GLONASS precise ephemerides –Intelsat 11-parameter data Import data into STK to generate ephemerides Generate TLE from ephemerides –Allows users to see benefit Test cases with supporting data –Overcomes limitations in most orbital software that can only handle TLEs/SGP4

10. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 10 of 26 GPS Almanacs vs. TLEs Mean: 1.292 km Max: 3.073 km Mean: 7.544 km Max: 32.449 km

11. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 11 of 26 GPS Supplemental TLEs Mean: 0.872 km Max: 2.366 km Mean: 7.544 km Max: 32.449 km

12. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 12 of 26 GLONASS Supplemental TLEs Mean: 3.301 km Max: 9.388 km Mean: 0.201 km Max: 0.539 km

13. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 13 of 26 Case Study: Intelsat Data Comparisons IS-6BIS-3RIS-11 IS-6BIS-3RIS-11 Owner ephemerides AFSPC TLEs 43.25° W 43.00° W 42.75° W Spacing = 184 km

14. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 14 of 26 Case Study: ASTRA 1 Cluster Open source image of cluster –http://www.foton.co.za/assa_imaging.htmhttp://www.foton.co.za/assa_imaging.htm Taken 2009 Jan 21 at 20:21:11 UTC Site location: 33.94058 S, 18.51294 E, 10 m –Pinelands, a suburb of Cape Town, South Africa Telescope: 6-inch, f/2.7 reflector FOV: 54.7 x 40.2 arcminutes Compared SES ephemerides and latest TLEs

15. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 15 of 26 SES Ephemerides Hipparcos Stars AFSPC TLEs

16. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 16 of 26 SES Ephemerides Hipparcos Stars AFSPC TLEs

17. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 17 of 26 SES Ephemerides Hipparcos Stars AFSPC TLEs

18. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 18 of 26 1H to _1H = 71 km SES Ephemerides Hipparcos Stars AFSPC TLEs

19. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 19 of 26 SES Ephemerides Hipparcos Stars AFSPC TLEs

20. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 20 of 26 SOCRATES-GEO Extension of SOCRATES –Satellite Orbital Conjunction Reports Assessing Threatening Encounters in Space –Running since 2004 May Looks for any time anything gets within 5 km of payload –2,959 payloads vs. 12,817 total objects (as of 2009 Mar 31) –13,979 conjunctions (2009 Mar 31 + 7 days) Runs automatically twice per day Generates standard reports available via the Internet Uses only TLEs –Limited accuracy due to non-cooperative tracking –Does not account for maneuvers well –US SSN tracks over 19,000 objects

21. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 21 of 26 SOCRATES-GEO Today Includes all objects which pass ±250 km of GEO –752 payloads vs. 1,334 total objects (as of 2009 Mar 31) –1,094 conjunctions within 50 km (2009 Mar 31 + 7 days) Uses best data sources available Generates standard reports –Runs in under 15 minutes on standard PC –Provides links to standard (OEM) orbital data Allows user-defined notification criteria Automatically sends notification Web access to latest data via secure system

22. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 22 of 26 Data sources Owner ephemeris Public orbital data TLE data Convert to standard format Generate ephemerides Produce enhanced TLEs Select GEO data Data preparation

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25. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 25 of 26 Future Enhancements Process new data as received –User defines notification interval –Parallel analysis tool for maneuver planning Improved data status page –Data type, age, and quality –Direct contact information for operational satellites Enhanced graphs, reports, visualization –Customizable tool kits

26. Fifth European Conference on Space Debris, 2009 Mar 30-Apr 2 Pg 26 of 26 Summary & Conclusions Bottom line: –Technical solution is easy Biggest obstacle: –Data sharing policies Other issues: –Organization –Resources & Funding Together we can work today to mitigate risk

27. Questions?