Presentation on theme: "London Infrastructure Plan 2050 Sir Edward Lister Chief of Staff and Deputy Mayor for Planning and Policy."— Presentation transcript:
London Infrastructure Plan 2050 Sir Edward Lister Chief of Staff and Deputy Mayor for Planning and Policy
POPULATION (MILLIONS} 14 1a High 13.4 million 12 Central 11.3 million 10 g Low 9.5 million g 'l 8 5 4a4a 19001920194019801990111001Q201040 11160 tQBO 2000202020402080 WHY A LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN: population growth
WHY A LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN: Announce to the world that London is the best place to do business With a million more people in London in the next decade, by 2031 we will need: 34,900 more homes: likely to be higher 1.3m - 2.2m sq ft of office space in central London alone 1.3m - 2.2 m sq ft of comparison retail space 40,000 more hotel bedrooms
WHY A LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN: significant economic opportunity but ferocious competition
London’s infrastructure is a competitive risk Congestion Aviation Connectivity Housing Space for walking and cycling
WHAT DOES LONDON NEED?
INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN AIMS “Present recommendations and actions to ensure London’s infrastructure requirements to 2050 are articulated, costed and funding arrangements are in place (as far as possible). Demonstrate to the Government, Londoners and investors that infrastructure is a key priority and that London has a clear plan to meet the demands of its growing population and remain a leading world city. Ensure the London Infrastructure Plan is supported and deliverable, through active involvement of key stakeholders. Provide the Mayor and other London leaders with the information to understand and critically appraise London’s infrastructure delivery”
FOUR CRITICAL QUESTIONS
O V E R A L LO V E R A L L
T R A N S P O R T( 1 )T R A N S P O R T( 1 ) Enable 36 trains per hour across the Jubilee, Piccadilly, Northern and Central line T ube i n v e s t m e n t £1 5 - 18 bn Transform national commuter rail network through joint investment with Network Rail (£15-20 bn) Crowding levels on the tube network 2031 Further ‘Crossrails’ starting with Crossrail 2 by 2030 and increasing frequency of Crossrail 1 trains (£23-30 bn) Bakerloo line extension
T R A N S P O R T( 2 )T R A N S P O R T( 2 ) A congestion- busting programme to support network functioning for essential journeys (£2-5bn) A series of new river crossings in east London to overcome the major barrier effect constraining the potential of this region (£1-2bn) A comprehensive network of high quality cycle and pedestrian routes (£2-4bn) A new inner orbital tooled tunnel and series of mini-tunnels and decking over to help transform places across the city (£15- 25bn)
GREEN THE ALL LONDON GREEN GRID FRAMEWORK PLAN ·· Siiateg-c corridOfs Slrateg cinlls Metropc l:m park opportunlttea -?" Regiona 1 park opporluntties e Regionalparks e Metropolitan !)3tks Dtstricl parks loc;al parks &. open spactts Other/pnvate spaces ·---· Strateg c W3 king routes Strateg c cyclmg routes Sautee.Gre1:er l.Dndon Authan1J'
D I G I TA LC O N N E C T I V I T YD I G I TA LC O N N E C T I V I T Y Before 2020s…and beyond Fibre and wireless access to the internet To enable new ideas
E N E R G YE N E R G Y More investment in locally produced energy (£300million in the pipeline)
WAT E RWAT E R Sewage Expected a deficit in water supply of over half a billion litres a day by 2050 Flood defence About 16% of London is built on the protected flood plains of our rivers that holds critical infrastructure. More investment is needed in flood defences that can cope with climate changes and aging existing infrastructure defences.
WASTE: create facilities to re-use and recycle
S PAT I A L S C E N A R I O S Accommodating population outside London Assuming current policies continue Increasing densities in locations with good public access. Increasing densities at town centres.
BETTER DELIVERY Innovation and growth to be at the centre of our work A new Infrastructure Delivery Group Work to gain cross party support and commitment to London’s infrastructure projects Reforms to the regulatory systems (energy, water and ICT) to enable delivery ahead of demand, innovation and transparency Fiscal devolution
COSTS BILLIONS ESTIMATE 250 200 150 OVERALL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE tOO 50 0 2011- 15 2016-202021 - 2.52026 - 302031 -352036 -40 2041 -45 2046 - 50 % OFGVA tOI!E. Our best cost estimates to meet all our infrastructure needs would almost double expenditure as a proportion of the economy. Housing and transport make up three quarters of the total costs Population 2050 of 11.3 mJIIion, construction cost inllation of 211E> per annum above RPI, pobcy aspmltions are acnieved 211b Transport Schools HousingWaste Energy Digital conneclivity Water Green infrasuucurre tllb - Capex as qa of GVA Ollb Sll'urae: Amp
PAYINGFORIT Such a level of investment cannot be sustained doing things in the traditional way. INCOME FROM CENTRAL GOVERNMENT GRANTS We need a combination of better coordination and integration, better asset utilisation, more use of data and private capital. london: 66'1b New York: 30.9% Tokyo: 7.7'1b FISCAL DEVOLUTION More spending powers for London will be key. UPLIFT IN PROPERT Y VALUES ADDITIONAL REVENUES BETTER USE OF OUR DATA BETTER INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION PROCUR EMENTPRIVATE CAPITAL
KEY CONSULTATION QUESTIONS: 1.Do you agree we should have a long term plan? 2.Our stated requirements - any unnecessary? Anything else? 3.Funding – how can we close the gap? 4.What more in addition to the Delivery Board to ensure best practice, joined up delivery? 5.Where w ill London’s growth best be accommodated? 6.Amend incentives for utility providers to share costs more equitably? How to do this? 7.Approach to technological change? Which innovations? 8.How to change behaviours to reduce demand? And various sector specific questions