Presentation on theme: "1 Population growth rates and trends Topic 1 - Population Growth."— Presentation transcript:
1 Population growth rates and trends Topic 1 - Population Growth
2 Western Bay of Plenty Sub-region Includes: Western Bay of Plenty District Council Tauranga City Council Coastal Marine Area
3 Population growth rate Rapid population growth since the 1950s Cameron Road showing the Bellevue Temperance Hotel, west end of Wharf Street about 1910.
4 Population growth rate Challenge - sustainable urban and rural development Every week: 135 people arrive 66 people leave 30 new houses built 60 more vehicles 51 new jobs
5 Future Growth Estimates 2001 population 130,000 – 14% up on 1996 census 198,000 by 2021 286,000 by 2051
6 Population – NZ context 2051- 5.2% of national population Fourth or fifth most populated region in New Zealand Source: Ministry for the Environment http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/ser/enz07- dec07/html/chapter2-environment/page3.html
8 Aging population Popular place to retire Aging population Demographic changes Workforce capacity - baby boomers retire 5,000 people over 80 By 2051, more than 35,000 Question / Pātai Implications of aging population?
9 Young families, small households Families with young children Changing household structures Traditional families double by 2051 Single, two-person households treble by 2051 Question / Pātai Implications of more families with young children?
10 Non-permanent residents Other people: Short-term visitors/tourists Second homeowners Itinerant, seasonal workers Population forecasts may understate the position
11 Other factors Changes in attractiveness: –Improved tertiary facilities –Improved employment opportunities –Worsening environment from growth (traffic congestion, reduced “small town” appeal) Question / Pātai Larger population - positive or negative?
14 SmartGrowth - restrain or manage growth? SmartGrowth strategy based on: –restraining scale or rate of growth not practical at sub-regional level –forecast growth will be accommodated –development needs to constrained to protect important natural, physical or cultural features
15 Restrained growth Activity / Mahi 1. List reasons for restraining growth at sub- regional level 2. Develop an idea for retraining growth 3. Describe practical implications and limitations 4. List of reasons in favour of unrestrained growth at a sub-regional level
16 True / False Quiz Western BOP does not include a marine area Population increased 4% from 1996 census Population forecasts only for permanent residents Population growth implications - better roads, more efficient public transport? SmartGrowth aims to constrain development in some areas of the sub region