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Rick Miner, Ph.D.. Two Mega Trends: Aging population resulting in lower labour force participation rates Knowledge economy requiring a more educated work.

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Presentation on theme: "Rick Miner, Ph.D.. Two Mega Trends: Aging population resulting in lower labour force participation rates Knowledge economy requiring a more educated work."— Presentation transcript:

1 Rick Miner, Ph.D.

2 Two Mega Trends: Aging population resulting in lower labour force participation rates Knowledge economy requiring a more educated work force 2

3 3 Source: Russell Barnett, Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2007

4 4 Source: Statistics Canada, 2010

5 5 Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2010

6 6 Source: Statistics Canada, 2012

7 Comparative Canadian Participation Rates 2012 vs. 2007 7 Source: Statistics Canada, 2013 Age group (years)20072012difference 15-19 55.249.5-5.7 20-24 78.476.1-2.3 25-29 86.185.9-0.2 30-34 87.686.8-0.8 35-39 87.887.6-0.2 40-44 87.788.10.4 45-49 86.887.10.3 50-54 83.784.40.7 55-59 70.674.13.5 60-64 65+ 8.912.63.7

8 8 Source: Created using Statistics Canada data

9 9 Source: Statistics Canada, 11-010-XIB using population scenario 3 (medium growth)

10 10 Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2005 and 2008

11 11 Labour Force Deficit (thousands)

12 What kind of new jobs/workforce does Ontario need? 12

13 In 2003, a quarter of the jobs listed in the U.S. Occupational codes did not exist in 1967. “Old” jobs become new jobs every 15 years. Knowledge economies require knowledge workers. 13

14 Estimates of Current & Future “New Job” Requirements:  65% (HRSDC, 2007): 75% (HRSDC, 2011)  67% (Canadian Council on Learning, 2009)  75/76% (B.C. Ministry of Advanced Education & Labour Market Development, 1997 and 2009)  78% (U.S. Skills2Compete, 2007)  Ontario targets 70% attainment level (Speech from the Throne, 2010)  BC targeting an 80% attainment rate for 2030 and a 90% transition rate by 2020 (Skills for Growth, 2010) 14

15 15 200620112016202120262031 New Job Skill Requirements 65.0%70.0%72.5%75.0%77.5%80.0% Labour Force Skill Availability 60.0%62.0%63.0%64.0%65.0%66.0% Overall Labour Force Skill Requirements 60.0%63.4%67.4%71.8%74.1%76.5% Table 1. Labour Force Skill Assumptions

16 16 Source: Statistics Canada using 2006 Census data 2031: 77%

17 Figure 10. Ontario Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth 17 Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands)

18 18 Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands)

19 19

20 To Avoid This Crisis We Need: A better trained/educated workforce More workers and higher labour force participation rates 20

21 The labour force objective requires increased involvement of: Immigrants Aboriginal individuals Persons with Disabilities Women Younger workers Older workers 21

22 22 Labour Force Participation Rate Canadian 1 Immigrant 2 Very Recent RecentEstablished 88.2%74.8%83.1%87.0% Table 2. Immigrant vs. Ontario Labour Force Participation Rates: 25 - 54 Years of Age 1 Born in Canada 2 Very Recent = 5 years or less Recent = 5 to 10 years Established = 10 years or more Source: Statistics Canada, 2008

23 23 Population Age (years)Total Population 2 Aboriginal Population Difference 15 - 2465.2%57.0%8.2% 25 - 5485.6%77.1%8.5% 55 - 6461.5%50.3%11.2% Table 3. Ontario Aboriginal Labour Force Participation Rates 1 1 Taken from 2006 Census data, Statistics Canada, No. 97-559-XCB2006008 2 Includes the Aboriginal population which makes the difference less

24 24 Ages 15 – 64 With disabilitiesWithout disabilities Participation Rates54.9%77.3% Specific Disability Hearing64.1% Seeing49.9% Learning47.6% Developmental32.7% Mobility53.6% Memory40.2% Agility52.8% Psychological45.2% Table 4. Persons with Disabilities: Labour Force Participation Source: Statistics Canada, 2006

25 25 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey for June 2011

26 Labour Force Youth (15 to 24 years)  accelerated degree completion (summers)  more university-college joint programs: less time  reinstatement of “old” 3-year B.A. Degree  improve high school – university/college coordination & cooperation  attitudinal changes (83 % high school graduation rate –5 yrs: Mid 70s in four years) 26

27 Labour Force Older (55 years and older)  more work-retirement transition opportunities  different retirement and tax provisions  more work-life balance opportunities  creation of a new entrepreneurial class  mentoring programs & options (knowledge transfer & increased workforce) 27

28 28 1 Dependency ratio is the percentage of population in the younger and older age groups. Source: Statistics Canada, 2010, catalogue no. 91-520-X using scenario M1 population projection (medium growth)

29 Jobs of the Future

30 Job Predictions: Approaches Existing Jobs Evolving Jobs New Jobs There will still be “old” jobs. 30

31 31 HRSDC: Working in Canada ( Projections by National Occupational Classification Codes (NOC): 2011-2020 -- 140 NOCs Projections based on: Existing expansion demand, retirements, other replacements, emigration, projected job openings vs. job seekers

32 32 Table 5. COPS Employment Projections (2011-2020) Creative Artist Financial Insurance Clerk Medical Technologist Code 513143321 Employment 93,351384,96688,822 Median Age 42.540.639.9 Retirement Age 626560 Expansion Demand 10,67029,89915,906 Retirements 27,72190,34820,058 Other Replacement Demand 4,32610,2982,306 Emigration 1,4005,7741,334 Projected Openings 44,117136,31839,603 School Leavers 28,110114,48328,992 Immigration 5,61823,4495,706 Net Mobility 3,2188,0393,002 Projected Job Seekers 36,947145,97141,321 Shortage (excess) 7,170(9,653)(1,718)

33 33 HRSDC Good Job Prospects: 45 of 140 NOCs 21 Health-related 11 Business/Finance/Administrative/Managerial 4 Social/Legal/Counselling 7 Technological/Engineering/IT 2 Other Existing

34 Skill/training levels requirements (Canadian Government Projections 2010-2020) Education Type % Management10.8% College/Trades 34.3% University21.3% High School24.9%

35 35 US Bureau of Labour Statistics Projections: 2010-11 Edition ( Largest Numerical Growth: Top 10 - Registered Nurses - Home Health Aides - Customer Service Representatives - Food Preparation - Personal and Home Care Aides - Retail Sales Persons - Office Clerks - Accountants and Auditors - Nurses Aides And Orderlies - Post-secondary Teachers Fastest Growing Occupations (Top 10) - Biomedical Engineers - Network Systems and Data Communications Specialists - Home Health Aides - Personal and Home Care Aides - Financial Examiners - Medical Scientists - Physician Assistants - Skin Care Specialists - Biochemists & Biophysicists - Athletic Trainers Existing

36 Ontario’s New Occupations and Industries ( Aerospace Biotechnology (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Pharmaceuticals) Distance Learning Environment Green Energy Technologies Health Informatics Multimedia, particularly for mobile communications What other jurisdictions have listed the same? 36 Existing/Evolving

37 37 University of Calgary Career Counseling ( Trends & Jobs High Technology and Material Creation (selected from 13) Software Developers Computer Animators Electrical Trades Technical Writers Global Village (selected from 7) Internet Specialists Protocol Officers Translators International Lawyers Natural Systems Awareness (selected from 20) Natural Healing Practitioner Fitness Consultant Environmental Engineers Genetic Researcher Water Quality Technician Demographics (selected from 34) Any elder health field Travel Consultant Estate Lawyer Funeral Director Human Resource Personnel Officer Information Revolution (selected from 16) Information System Librarian Specialist Researcher Manager of Communications Financial Advisor Evolving

38 Futurist Adam Gordon (2020-2030 Jobs): 38 Body Part Maker Nano-Medic Memory Augmentation Surgeon Organ Agent Old Age Wellness Manager End-of-life Planner Climate Change Reversal Specialist ‘New Science’ Ethicist Time Broker Weather Modification Police Quarantine Enforcer Automated Systems Monitor Vertical Farmer ‘Pharmer’ – Genetically Engineered Crops & Livestock Narrowcasters Social “Networking” Worker Personal Branders Virtual Clutter Organizer Waste Data Handler Virtual Lawyer Avatar Manager Space Pilot Alternative Vehicle Developers New

39 39 U of Calgary: Sharon Crozier (selected from 24) ( Robot Technician Euthanasia Ethics Advisor Gene Replacement Specialist Online Astrologer Virtual Vacation Broker Cloning Expert Multi-Generational Relationship Counsellor Fusion Engineer Cultural Projection Advisor New

40 40 Futurist Thomas Frey Jobs emerging before 2020Jobs emerging 2030 and beyond Avatar designersPlant Psychologists Urban agriculturalistsGravity Pullers 3D Printing EngineersNano Weapons Specialists Privacy ManagersExtinction Revivalists Social Education SpecialistsEarthquake Forecasters Data Hostage SpecialistsAmnesia Surgeons Organ AgentsTime Hackers Octogenarian Service ProvidersClone Ranchers New Science Philosopher- EthicistsWeather Control Specialists A variety of DismantlersDrone Dispatchers (

41 Jobs Of The Future: A Reality Check Poor predictive validity --not much beyond 3 years (typically less) Better at predicting “old jobs” than “new jobs” Job locations are increasingly less predictable Organizational and political competition creates complexity Knowledge workers are more mobile 41

42 42 What Have We Learned? Projections Differ Location Matters More Education Will be Required Is There Another Approach?

43 43 CommunitiesEducational Institutions Businesses & Entrepreneurs Governments Actions Trends Figure 15: Planning for the Jobs of the Future

44 44 Mega Trends/Paradigm Shifts Demographic changes (aging population) Increased oil prices Health paradigm shift Global warming/climate change/ environmental industries Advancements in information, communication & social networking technologies and usages Water usage, management & sale Security enhancement Globalization & multiculturalism

45 45 Overlapping Trends Oil Environment Health Aging

46 46 Education Actions Educational institutions need to: Provide basic and specific employability and literacy skills Shorten and accelerate program durations Delay specialization decisions Increase program relevancy Increase affordability Increase flexibility Work together (colleges, universities, high schools)

47 47 Basic Employability and Literacy Skills - reading - writing - speaking - numeracy - document usage - thinking - group work - continuous learning - computer usage Plus - entrepreneurship - multiculturalism

48 Shorten timelines 48 Grade 11 to: Employment time horizon 3 year college diploma5 years 4 year college/university degree6 years Degree + post-graduate diploma7-8 years Master’s degree8 years Ph.D.12 years

49 49 Times Too Long & Too Costly Degree Completion ( Institutions Norm (in months) Actual (in months) One 44 55.4 Two 44 58.9 Three or more 44 66.7 Cost: Undergraduate student debt (2009) (Canadian University Survey Consortium, Graduating Student Survey 2009) Percentage with Debt: 58% Average Debt: $26,680

50 50 Relevancy good applied content and continuous curriculum updates advanced and relevant technologies both technical knowledge and essential employment skills good economic development, workforce training and PSE partnerships literacy support

51 51 Affordability Accelerated programs -“year round” -on-site preparation -3-year bachelor + specialized diploma well-articulated agreements between: -university – university -college – university -high school – college – university -business – PSE institution full credit recognition (transfer credits) teaching-focused colleges and universities

52 52 Flexibility allowing for alternative directions by delaying decision timeframes providing multiple career paths building a literacy and essential skills foundation

53 53 Table 6: Desired PSE Educational Characteristics ActionAffordabilityRelevanceFlexibilityTimeliness More On-Line Learning X X X More Credit Recognition XXX Year around programing XXX 3 year bachelors XXX More employability skills training XX More articulated programs XXXX Delay decision making XXX Better LMI XXX

54 54 How business can help Invest in continuous employee training:1.5% is too low Work with educational institutions in providing curriculum content Provide employment experiences for students in high school, college, university Champion and support the need for literacy and essential skills Invest in new jobs

55 55 How communities can help: Establish educational priorities, including literacy objectives Support and encourage PSE cooperation Create community economic plans and directions Invest in economic development and educational cooperation Encourage entrepreneurial growth

56 56 How governments can help: Tie funding to literacy and essential skills development Provide clear indication of economic investment priorities Invest in life-long learning (part-time learners, corporate training, attitude changes) by increasing system capacity Fund Centres for Economic Development and Advanced Curriculum Design “Accept” Failure

57 57 Table 6: Create Centres for Research. Economic Development and Advanced Curriculum Design Who would be involved? - Economic development offices - Educational partners (college, university, high school) - Labour - Businesses (including SME’s & entrepreneurs) - Literacy organizations - Government(s) (local/provincial/federal) - Workforce Planning Boards What would they do? - Concentrate on and analyze future job trends(s) in the community - Jointly develop curriculum/ programs - Jointly support and fund cluster-related start-ups - Provide networking and expansion opportunities

58 58 Communities Educational Institutions Labour, Businesses & Entrepreneurs Governments Fund literacy; Support life-long learning; Provide economic direction; Fund Centres for REDACD; Live with “failure” Corporate training; Literacy; Essential skills; Invest in new jobs; Provide employment experiences; Contribute to curriculum design Increase relevance; Flexibility; Credit recognition; Shorter programs; Increase cooperation; Delayed specialization; Affordability; Continuous learning Aging Population Social Networks Health Water Environment Security Globalization Peak Oil PSE Cooperation; Economic plans; Entrepreneurial growth; Educational priorities; Economic development & Educational support Figure 16: Model: Centre for Research, Economic Development and Advanced Curriculum Design

59 59 Let’s Review Individual and Community Strategies Traditional approaches to jobs are good if the timelines are short Trend approaches are good providing the trend is right, you are mobile and you have enough time to catch the wave For future jobs, planning for continuous change is best - Develop core employability skills - Analyze potential growth areas using your basic skills - Obtain a post-secondary credential in an area related to the growth area - Use your PSE experience to define your employability skills in the area of growth - Delay your “specialization” decision as long as possible (shorten time to market) - Begin all over again for the next job/career Create Centres for Economic Development and Advanced Curriculum Design

60 60 Ultimately, Success Depends on Cooperation Between Communities Governments Businesses/Entrepreneurs Educational Institutions

61 61 Table 7: Canadian Population by Occupation (time of Confederation) Occupation ________________Number Farmer 320,952 Mechanic & Handicraftsman 115,272 Labourer (incl. Lumberman) 209,909 Trade & Commerce 32,619 Mariner & Fisherman 25,009 Miner1,207 Professional man 10,119 Miscellaneous 30,543 ________ TOTAL 745,630 Source: 1868 Year Book of Canada (Lowe and Harvey, 1867)

62 62 Table 8. 1867 PSE Enrolment “Province”InstitutionEnrolment Upper Canada All 1,820 Includes: University of Toronto, University College, Upper Canada College, Royal Grammer School, University of Victoria College, University of Queen’s College, St. Michael’s College, University of Trinity College, Classical College, Knox’s College, Huron College, Belleville Seminary, Canadian Literary Institute, Wesleyan Female College, Friends Seminary, Regiopolis College Lower Canada All 537 Includes: McGill College University, Laval University, St. Hyacinthe, Masson and Assumption Colleges, Bishops College, St. Francis College, Nicolet College, Three Rivers College, and several other unnamed colleges and institutes. Enrolment includes normal schools which would not typical be considered as university enrolments. Maritimes All 234 Includes: The University of New Brunswick (five professor but no enrolment numbers provided), Mt Allison Academy (23), St. Francis Xavier (58), St Mary’s (no professor or enrolment numbers provide), Presbyterian Theological Hall (no reports), Dalhousie (49), Kings (29), Acadia (50), Mt Allison 21: reported as Nova Scotia), St Dunstan’s (5 professors but no enrolments provided), Prince of Wales (3), Newfoundland data is not broken out by college level but appears to be small regardless of how it is counted.

63 Thank you

64 64 A Brief Illustration: Aging

65 Aging Population: Understanding the Dynamics and Job Opportunities 65

66 66 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories 2010 (Tables 11-1 & 17) Figure 17. Canadian Population Growth Estimates, Age 65+

67 Figure 18. Canadian Life Expectancies by Gender 67

68 68 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories 2010 (Tables 11-1 & 17) Figure 19. Projected Number of Deaths by Year, Canada 2011- 2061

69 Boomer Attitudes, Opinions & Views 69

70 2010 Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey ( 70 Young Boomers: 50 years in 2010 (N=504) Old Boomers: 64 years in 2010 (N=510)

71 Life Priorities 71 50 Family: Spouse Financial: Retirement Savings Health Living, Enjoyment, Fun 64 Family: Spouse Health Living, Enjoyment, Fun Financial: Retirement Savings

72 How Old is Old? 72 50- 78 years 64- 80 years How Old Do You Feel? 50- 39 years 64- 50 years Why? active, diet, workout, mental attitude New Hobbies (Yes) 50- 41% (biking, gardening, yoga, woodwork) 64- 39% (computers, fishing, gardening, photography, quilting, woodwork) Educational Programs/Courses (Yes) 50- 32% (career-related) 64- 22% (personal interest)

73 Marital Status 73 5064 never married16% 6% married59%64% divorced19%19% widow/widower 2% 8% common law 5% 4% Why? Boredom, need money, self-satisfaction, enjoyment Financially Prepared for Retirement YesNo 50 (2010)16%84 % 50 (1996)34 % 66 % 64 (2010)38 % 62 % Plan to Work Past Retirement (Yes) 50 (2010)72% 50 (1996)68 % 64 (2010)74 %

74 US Baby Boomer Work Related Retirement Wishes 42%cycle between periods of work and leisure 17%never work again 16%PT work 13%start their own business 6%FT work 6%undecided Source: Merrill Lynch, 2005, N=2,348 (40 to 58 years old) 74

75 HR Council for the Non-Profit Sector (Canada 2010) 75 Sample N = 5,300 Age = mostly 45-65 Employment = mostly private sector Gender = 63% female Do you plan to work past retirement? 57% yes What benefits are important in a new job? 67%extended health benefits 61%availability of PT work 50%leave for personal/family reasons 47%availability of seasonal (PT) work 45%generous vacation/leave 41%life/disability insurance 39%pension plan

76 Misc. 76 Baby boomers (BB) will inherit trillions in the next 20 years (BMO) 2/3rds of BBs believe they will be care-givers for their elderly parents BB are/will be major consumers (Canadian Newspaper Association, N = 1,980; 44-62 years) - Do you plan to do any of these in the next 12 months? (Yes) 40%take a vacation 35%buy home electronics 31%buy furniture 24%buy appliances 23%buy car 23%buy computer - 40% say they feel ignored by advertisers 1/3rd of BB are obese (Canadian)

77 Canadian Boomer Survey Results Employee and Employer Desires 63% want to be accommodated in some way past traditional retirement - 54% of employers are willing to do so 34% want to ease into retirement (flexible work, PT hours) - 21% of employers will allow this 64% say it is difficult to talk to their employers about retirement 33% of employers say they would allow older workers to stay on past retirement in FT positions If allowed to stay beyond retirement (PT or FT) - 60% retire fully in 5 years or less - 40% retire after 5 years Source: Ipsos Reid Survey, Dec 2009, 50-64 year olds, N=804 boomers & 254 managers/executives 77

78 78 Data are valuable (example:

79 Areas of Job Growth (selected) 79 New & Expanded Life Services (children of retirees will be retired) --Alternative living arrangements Retirement co-ops Movement to underdeveloped countries Modularized accommodations --Financial, technological & social Bonded financial managers Intergenerational communications consultants Professional power of attorney managers Augmented living support technologies Increased Time Volunteer coordination Travel & experience managers Educational providers - Formal - Informal Work coordinator - Specialized temp agencies - Expertise head hunters - Work place coordinators Health & Death Services

80 Thank you

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