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Economic Outlook Turning points Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen Baltic M&A and Private Equity Forum Riga 24 October 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Outlook Turning points Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen Baltic M&A and Private Equity Forum Riga 24 October 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Outlook Turning points Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen Baltic M&A and Private Equity Forum Riga 24 October 2013

2 Global economic trends Nordic and Baltic economies

3 Our baseline scenario – turning points Growth picture changes - the old world wakes up while the new one has problems Less expansionary monetary policy, but interest rates will be low for much longer The euro remains strong - can it last? Global Helge J. Pedersen

4 Game changer - OMT works without being used Euro area TtThe Helge J. Pedersen

5 Growth around the corner – but at lower levels than before the crisis Global Helge J. Pedersen

6 The 2014 economic heat map … Global Helge J. Pedersen

7 Low inflation and high rate of unemployment pave the way for continued low interest rates The ECB has announced a new forward guidance strategy: The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on the overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics. Global Helge J. Pedersen

8 Reason to worry about MP-plus: new bubbles and inflation Global Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.... Milton Friedmann, The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory (1970) Helge J. Pedersen

9 Global economic trends Nordic & Baltic economies

10 Different growth pattern … Nordics&Baltics Helge J. Pedersen

11 …not least when it comes to manufacturing production Nordics&Baltics Helge J. Pedersen

12 Sentiment indicators look promising for the short-term outlook: PMIs Helge J. Pedersen Nordics&Baltics

13 Sentiment indicators look promising for the short-term outlook: consumer confidence Helge J. Pedersen Nordics&Baltics

14 Our growth forecasts in numbers Global Helge J. Pedersen

15 Long-term growth potential depends on the productivity development Nordics&Baltics Source: OECD Helge J. Pedersen

16 Reason to worry for the longer term: underinvestments Helge J. Pedersen Nordics&Baltics

17 Despite the fact that the Nordics and Baltics are among the top 30 countries to do easy business in Nordic&Baltics Helge J. Pedersen

18 New investment activity is a must for the Nordics to maintain their relatively good competitiveness and for the Baltics to improve theirs further Nordics&Baltics Helge J. Pedersen

19 Conclusion The combination of low interest rates and a solid global economic recovery is good news for the general M&A activity in 2014 New investment activity is a must for a bright future for the region Global Helge J. Pedersen

20 Only a few weaknesses in the Nordic and Baltic countries according to the early warning mechanism … Nordics&Baltics Helge J. Pedersen

21 Thank you! Helge J. Pedersen Global Chief Economist Economic Research Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. Helge J. Pedersen


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