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Inductive Reasoning The role of argument forms in evaluating probabilities

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Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something:

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Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Call it Y

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Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it:

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Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Y has properties a, b, c...n

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Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises: Y has properties a, b, c...n

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Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises: Is what we are able to observe personally or find out from someone else all we can reasonably believe about Y? Y has properties a, b, c...n

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The next question is... What else is probably true of Y?

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The next question is... What else is probably true of Y?

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A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n

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A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n

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A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X also has property p

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A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X also has property p In our minds, these facts resolve themselves into an argument almost automatically.

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A General Form of Inductive Reasoning Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n Premise 3: X also has property p Conclusion: Y has property p

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A General Form of Inductive Reasoning Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n Premise 3: X also has property p Conclusion: Y has property p This is obviously an inconclusive argument, but sometimes this amount of evidence is all we have to go on.

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The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory?

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The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory? THIS IS IMPORTANT!

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