Presentation on theme: "Presented by: Diane Garnick, CPA Investment Strategist + 1 (212) 278 9404 All material presented is compiled from sources believed."— Presentation transcript:
Presented by: Diane Garnick, CPA Investment Strategist + 1 (212) All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As with all investments there are associated inherent risks. Please obtain and review all financial material carefully before investing. The opinions expressed herein are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This publication may contain confidential and proprietary information of Invesco Institutional and/or Invesco Ltd. Circulation, disclosure, or dissemination of all or any part of this material to any unauthorized persons is prohibited without prior written consent of Invesco. For General Institutional Investor Use Only Post-Traumatic Stress Investing
2 Investors Need To Process Their Losses Kübler-Ross stages of grief; Investments version Stage 1: Denial — We should suspend mark to market accounting and everything will go away — I should throw away my 401K statement without even opening it Stage 2: Anger — It is unfair that Wall Street benefited at my expense — Why did this happen to me? Stage 3: Bargaining — Just give me one relief rally and I can make it all back — I just need people to stop panicking and my best ideas will make me whole again Stage 4: Depression — No one is hiring anywhere. Why should I bother? At least I can sleep late. Stage 5: Acceptance — I’m going to be ok. These things don’t last forever — I’m going to work on my career and be prepared for the opportunities when they do come Source: Invesco Ltd.
3 Unemployment Crisis in America Double digit unemployment on the horizon 6,700,000 American jobs lost since December 07 — There are 6.4 million people who live in the State of Massachusetts — Only 14 states have more people than Massachusetts Longer term unemployed hit 4,400,000 Americans — Defined as 27 weeks or more, with an additional 9.6 million taking temp jobs — 7.7 million have more than 1 job; 5% of the population Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of June 2009, US Census Bureau, March 2009, Invesco Ltd. In June, 2009 the average Unemployment Rate jumped to 9.5% Most recent State level data is from May, 2009 when 15 states + DC had higher unemployment than the national average May, 2009 by State
4 Balance Sheets Led Us Into This… Leverage on the part of households, not just corporates Sources: DataStream, Bloomberg, US Labor Department, National Bureau Economic Research, Invesco Household Debt as a % of Disposable Income as of July 30, UK USA AUSTRALIA UK USA Australia Job insecurity remains all pervasive — Unemployment rate continues to rise; UNDERemployment sky rocketing — Productivity rose at annual 6.4% pace; highest in 6 years Developed country households are still stretched — Overloaded with debt, they need to continue to de-leverage — Spending will be subdued relative to previous years
5 Real Estate Crisis in America The overindulgence of housing United States has a population of 298,757,310 — Make the extreme assumption that every family should be a homeowner — Further state that each family should own only one home Average family size in the United Sates is 3.19 — This number has been getting smaller, but over very long periods of time United States has 93,654,329 family units — Simply take the total population by the average family size There are currently 126,237,884 housing units available — This excludes homes currently under construction There are 32 million excess homes on the market right now — Represents a 26% overstocking of homes Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, March 2009, Invesco Ltd.
6 Housing Prices Continue to Fall Initially resistant to declines; sticky asset There are 0.42 houses per person in the United States — This means for equilibrium the family size should be 2.37 not ,112,947 people would need to move into new homes — Alternatively, we could demolish 32million homes Instead, throughout 2008, the foreclosure rate began to soar. By June, in 84 homes received a default notice, or were already seized by banks Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Case Shiller, Invesco Ltd.
7 Trend is Increasing Family Size This could slow down the housing price recovery process Young adults putting off moving out on their own — Waiting to feel more secure in their jobs before they sign a one year lease Boomerang children in their 40s and 50s — At one point described children returning to their parent’s home after college — This recession is redefining that phenomena Newly unemployed seeking shelter — Traditional three to six months of savings has been lost by market performance — Realistic that it could take much longer without becoming underemployed Loss of home as a result of personal bankruptcy/foreclosure — 1,416,902 people filed bankruptcy in 2008 Multigenerational households increased from 5m to 6.2m — In 2000 there were as few as 3.9m homes with three or more generations — One third of retirees have had to help their children pay bills in 2008 Sources: AARP, U.S. Census Bureau, Invesco Ltd.
8 Paradox of Thrift Slows Potential Recovery Wealth erosion coupled with employment uncertainty Savings rate jumped to 6.2% in May, 2009 — Households are hoarding cash in an effort to recoup losses Chrysler sold 83,678 new cars in February, 2009 — The FBI reports an average of 80,254 car thefts a month — Four car companies in the world sold more cars than the number of stolen cars Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, FBI, WARDS, Invesco Ltd.
10 Redefining Risk in the New Paradigm Err on the side of wealth preservation Post liquidity crisis; investors less willing to lock up cash — Likely to result in the reemergence of the liquidity premium Risk budgeting strategies can help reduce volatility — Similar levels of risk from each asset class; return to “Risk Parity” Diversification remains central to portfolio construction — Macro continues to dominate fundamentals… so far Attractive current yield and annualized return — Current yield to help mitigate impending negative cash flows — In many cases dividends are at risk; high yields through price depreciation Asset management fees under pressure — Managers are struggling to survive; willing to forego the old 2/20 model
11 Households are in need of balance sheet repair — Unlike other recessions, households have tremendous leverage — Work outs, particularly following bankruptcy, take a long time Resistance to Technology might lose to prudence — Desire to reduce costs will speed up technological implementation — Stable companies will take advantage of low rates and issue debt — Research, advisory and distribution will be rewarded (I admit, I’m biased) The promises of Technology might actually arrive — Eliminating the middlemen (Disintermediation) — Competitive price wars on customized products/services Technology corporate earnings are the centerpiece — At the start of the recession technology represented 16% of earnings — By the second half of 2010 it is forecasted to represent over 25% of earnings Ten years after the bubble, Technology is thriving Changing Consumer Habits Reluctantly spending, deflationary pressure persists Source: Invesco Ltd., Standard & Poor’s as of April, 2009
12 Frantic pace of change across multiple industries — Technological, regulatory and consumer changes happening simultaneously — Smaller companies can be nimble and adapt quickly Corporate America has their own credit crisis…Credibility! — Lack of leadership exists in many industries — Some innovative entrepreneurs will grow quickly and fill the void Conceptualize “The Law of Large Numbers” as an edge — A small number of companies will get it right and dominate the next regime — Investing in a large count of small companies increases your chances — Russell 2000 overlaid with active portfolio management is a great example From the entrepreneurs’ perspective downside risk is limited — Their ability to get a job is limited right now — Very talented employees willing to work for low wages Corporate activity in small cap (& beyond) is likely to rise Source: Invesco Ltd. The Case for Small Cap in 2009 & 2010 Unlike the past, growth might not be the driver
13 Horizontal activity has already picked up — Similar companies merging to reduce costs — Market sizes are shrinking, requiring a resizing Vertical activity will likely follow in — Post horizontal activity, there are likely to be a handful of very large vs. tiny — Smaller companies might find selling to a customer easier than competing First mover advantage refuses to go away — The opportunity to select your partner is limited to first movers — Strategic decision to remain small might result in being crowded out Characteristics likely to attract bidders — Cash on hand and/or over funded pension plan — Stable, blue collar customer base — Low overhead, global operation At long last, good news for the financial sector This Source: Invesco Ltd., Fortune Cost Reduction Through M&A Activity Expect proactive behavior from management
U.S. Market Neutral
15 US Market Neutral Attributes that could make this a compelling investment now High volatility implies a wide range of expected returns — This is an optimal time for active management Utilize all of the research you’re already paying for — Research findings can be used to identify long and short positions — The net result is a higher ‘transfer coefficient’ — Performance attribution should demonstrate the level of skill vs. luck Ability to produce similar return patterns with lower volatility — Combining fundamental research with quantitative portfolio construction — Not all quants are created equal Reduces the need to time the markets — Risk controls are used to reduce sector, size and style bets
16 Investment Process Overview Transparent, logical, risk focused approach Trading Stock Selection Risk Assessment Portfolio Construction Portfolio Universe Development Determine investable universe appropriate to strategy Add value through systematically ranking stocks in universe Identify and measure risk of all stocks in universe to avoid unintended exposures Preserve value-added through cost-effective trading Construct portfolio to meet desired return/risk characteristics For Illustrative Purposes Only
17 U.S. Market Neutral Cash Composite Performance Calendar Year And Annualized Returns (Gross) Annualized Periods Through December 2008 Q41 year3 years5 Years10 Years Inception 3/31/98 Market Neutral Cash1.25%7.78%10.40%9.26%6.37% 7.12% Citi 90-Day T-Bill 0.25%1.80%3.76%3.19%3.30% 3.41% Excess Return1.00%5.98%6.64%6.17%3.07%3.71% This presentation of Invesco is supplemental information to the GIPS® compliant presentations. Performance results do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. A client’s actual return will be reduced by the advisory fees and any other expenses which may be incurred in the management of an investment advisory account. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see the performance & notes on page 17 for more information.
Invesco Ltd. Partnership For Financial Security
21 Mission: Helping people worldwide build their financial security Who We Are A global leader in investment management We’re one of the world’s leading independent global investment management firms We draw on the strength of many resources: — $403 (U.S.) billion in assets under management — Client support in 20 countries serving clients in more than 100 countries — 13 specialized investment centers — More than 5,000 employees worldwide — More than 500 investment professionals We deliver on a single focus: investment management We have the leadership, resources and integrity to look after our clients’ interests: — Long history of managing assets for clients on a global basis — Publicly traded on New York Stock Exchange with $8.1 billion in market capitalization All data as of December 30, 2008, unless otherwise noted. Source: Invesco Ltd.
22 Differentiators Delivering the combined power of our distinctive worldwide investment management capabilities globally, we have: Diversified Investments Distinctive investment teams Disciplined investment processes Global product breadth Global Reach Distributional and operational strength and breadth Local delivery and knowledge Independent, objective perspectives Client Focus Client relationship driven Experienced, consultative professionals Needs-based innovation Client Benefits Disciplined Investment Process Clearly articulated investment disciplines aligned with client expectations and underpinned by diligent oversight and rigorous quality control processes Superior Client Service Consistent, superior service delivered through exceptional support, access and responsiveness Organizational Strength The leadership, resources and integrity to look after our clients’ interests Mission Helping people worldwide build their financial security Corporate Principles ● We are passionate about our clients’ success ● We earn trust by acting with integrity ● People are the foundation of our success ● Working together, we achieve more ● We believe in the continuous pursuit of performance excellence Our Business Today Invesco mission, principles and differentiators 22
23 Institutional separate accounts Collective trusts Mutual funds (onshore & offshore) Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Private placements Sub-advised SMA/UMA Variable insurance funds Delivered the Way Our Clients Want Invesco Delivers Investment Strategies That Meet Our Clients’ Diverse Needs Diversified Investment Strategies Equity Market cap Investment style Global/regional/single country Developed/Emerging Sector Quantitative Asset Allocation Traditional balanced Target maturity Target risk Fixed Income and Cash Duration Quality Sector Global/regional/single country Developed/Emerging Taxability Alternatives Real Estate – Public real estate securities – Private direct real estate – US, Asian, European, Global Private Equity – Direct Distressed – Fund of Funds Buyout, VC, Emerging Absolute Return −Market Neutral −GTAA −Active Currency −Multi-strategy −Alternative Beta Directional Long/Short (130/30) Financial Structures −CDO/CLO/CSO −Opportunistic Commodities/ Natural Resources Customized solutions −Portable alpha −Liability-driven ETFs are not diversified..
24 Invesco Aim Investment focus: U.S., international and global equities AUM: $38.4 billion Invesco Trimark Investment focus: Canadian equities, fixed income and global value AUM: $19.4 billion Invesco Asia-Pacific Investment focus: Asian Ex-Japanese, Greater Chinese, Japanese and Australian equities AUM: $13.7 billion Invesco Global Strategies Investment focus: Global Equity (Global, non-U.S., and Emerging Market equities) Quantitative Equity (quantitative active, enhanced and long/short strategies) Global Asset Allocation (tactical asset allocation, alternative beta, and multi-asset class solutions AUM: $30.1 billion Invesco Real Estate Investment focus: Global direct real estate investing and public real estate investing AUM: $23.5 billion Invesco Worldwide Fixed Income Investment focus: Money market, stable value, global fixed income and alternatives/financial structures AUM: $150.7 billion Invesco PowerShares Investment focus: ETFs AUM: $9.2 billion Atlantic Trust Investment focus: High-net-worth multimanagement AUM: $13.4 billion Invesco Perpetual Investment focus: U.K. equities, fixed income and European equities AUM: $50.0 billion Invesco Private Capital Investment focus: Fund of funds and venture capital private equities AUM: $1.9 billion WL Ross Investment focus: Distressed and restructuring private equities AUM: $6.9 billion Data as of December 31, The Value We Deliver To Our Clients Specialized investment capabilities globally One of Invesco’s greatest competitive advantages is the combined power of our distinctive worldwide investment management capabilities. With offices worldwide, capabilities in virtually every asset class and investment style, a disciplined approach to investment management and a commitment to the highest standards for performance and client service, Invesco is uniquely positioned to compete in our evolving world. 24