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Samuel Clark Department of Sociology, University of Washington Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder Agincourt Health and.

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Presentation on theme: "Samuel Clark Department of Sociology, University of Washington Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder Agincourt Health and."— Presentation transcript:

1 Samuel Clark Department of Sociology, University of Washington Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder Agincourt Health and Population Unit, University of the Witwatersrand Indirect Estimation Techniques

2 May 30, Introduction  In large parts of the developing world vital registration systems do not function well, or at all  Consequently it is not possible to obtain “direct” measures of most demographic indicators  “Indirect” methods go part way to filling this gap  Will focus mainly on mortality because it is perhaps the most fundamental demographic indicator: – Social progress, health status – Program effectiveness, etc.  The indirect methods use measures of kin survival to estimate mortality

3 May 30, The Brass Method  Developed by William Brass …  Very common method of estimating child mortality from mothers’ reports of the survivorship of their children  Women commonly interviewed in a survey framework  Minimum necessary information: – Total number of live-born children – Total number of those children are now alive (survived) – The UN now recommends these questions for national censuses

4 May 30, Brass Concept  Basic idea (Hill & Figueroa, 2001): – Mothers’ age can serve as proxy for exposure time of their children – Proportion children who are dead for mothers of given age can be converted to a defined probability of dying for children of a given age  Calculate the proportion of live-born children who are dead by age of mother  Convert the proportion dead to a standard life table measure: q(a) = x q 0

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14 May 30, Biases / Errors / Misinterpretations  Misreport of numbers of children and surviving children  Still births reported as live births  overstates Mx  Omission of children who have moved to other households  overstates Mx  Changes in Mx level over time; corrected with the “reference period”  Changes in Fx over time – a real problem: alters the parity ratios and distorts the fertility correction multipliers – HIV – Secular declines in fertility

15 May 30, Biases / Errors / Misinterpretations  q(1) is a problem: – Most deaths are to first births that have above normal risks – Many early first births are to low SES women who also have above average risks – Comparatively few births in this age group and not much exposure (see lexis diagram)  Selective mortality of mothers: – Assumes child survival to children of death and living mothers is the same – Often not:  HIV correlates mortality of mothers and children, dead mothers’ children likely had higher Mx  estimate understates reality

16 May 30, Biases / Errors / Misinterpretations  Simulation techniques used to address, quantify and attempt to correct for some of these biases


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