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Trends in Refining Carlos A. Cabrera President & CEO UOP LLC Carlos A. Cabrera President & CEO UOP LLC © 2009 UOP LLC. All rights reserved. UOP 5033A_China-01.

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Presentation on theme: "Trends in Refining Carlos A. Cabrera President & CEO UOP LLC Carlos A. Cabrera President & CEO UOP LLC © 2009 UOP LLC. All rights reserved. UOP 5033A_China-01."— Presentation transcript:

1 Trends in Refining Carlos A. Cabrera President & CEO UOP LLC Carlos A. Cabrera President & CEO UOP LLC © 2009 UOP LLC. All rights reserved. UOP 5033A_China-01 January 13, 2009 PetroTech, New Delhi, India

2 Refining & Petrochemical Industry CHALLENGES  Availability, price and declining quality of crude  Other feedstock availability  Changing product slates and quality specifications  Government mandates to meet CO2 challenge  New capacity needed to meet forecast demand growth  Increasing costs of capital projects UOP

3 Price of Oil Oil Price Forecast Each year for past 5 years – no one has predicted oil price accurately Low oil price and low demand will challenge/postpone some projects Spot price st quarter price 2004 projection 2005 projection 2007 projection 2006 projection 2008 Dollars per Barrel ‘70 ‘73‘76‘79 ‘82 ‘85‘88‘91‘94‘97‘00‘03 ‘06‘09‘12‘15 ‘18‘21 ‘24 ‘27 ‘30 Source: Energy Information Administration July 3 - $145 Oct 17 - $70 UOP 5019A-02 Sept 26 - $99 Nov 14 - $52 Dec 19 - $41

4 Decrease in Gasoline Demand

5 Crude Quality Changes Crude getting heavier and more sour Source: IFQC UOP 5033A_China-09

6 Ethanol Production from Sugars 300 Million BTU/acre Gallons per acre BarleyWheatCorn Sugar Beet Sugar Cane Source: Fulton et. al * Energy content basis Biodiesel Production from Oils 700 Million BTU/acre Gallons per acre Source: Fulton et. al Soybean Caster bean Sunflower seed Rape- seed Jatropha Palm % Substitution Equivalent to the Land Mass of ~CA, IN, NV, MI Targets RegionCurrentFuture Brazil E25/B2B5 by 2010 China E10, B58% by 2020 Europe 5.75%* by %* by 2020 India E10 in 2008E20/B20 by 2017 (proposed) Canada Provincial E5/B2 by 2012 ( Canadian Law, C33) USA 15 B gal B gal by 2022 (~20% of transport pool) Global Biofuel Targets UOP

7 Increases Availability, Reduces Feedstock Cost Technology Breakthroughs Required MBPD Global US CurrentPotential Liquid Transport Fuels Gasoline Diesel Cellulosic Waste MBPD Liquid Transport Fuels Gasoline Diesel Cellulosic Waste CurrentPotential Source: Purvin & Gertz / Eric Larsen: Energy for Sustainable Development, 2000 Oils Productivity Gallons per acre Source: Fulton et. al Soybean Caster bean Sun- flower seed Rape- seed Jatropha Palm Million BTU/acre  Cellulosic waste could make a significant contribution to liquid transportation pool.  Algal Oils could enable oils route to biodiesel, Green Diesel and Green Jet. ≈ 3500 ≈ Algae 455 Enablers for a Sustainable Biomass Infrastructure UOP

8 Worldwide Diesel Sulfur Levels UOP 5033A_China-10

9 IHS-CERA Upstream & Downstream Capital Cost Indices Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates 70% downstream cost escalation over past 5 years Relief on the Horizon? UOP 5033A_China-12

10 Implications for Refiners  Globally, product balance shifts strongly towards diesel –Slowing global gasoline demand due to high prices and new fuel efficiency standards in the US and Europe –Ethanol replaces some gasoline  Configuration changes will be required to meet demand & handle wider supply of crudes –More heavy and sour crudes –More resid conversion & hydrocracking  New processing to upgrade fuel quality –Lower sulfur fuels –Higher octane gasoline Refining changes required Lower demand, how long? UOP 5033A_China-13

11 Basic Chemicals & Plastics Two-Year Rolling Average Demand Growth CurrentLog. Trend (Current) Million Metric Tons Two-Years Ending in… Petrochemicals is a Cyclic Market UOP 5033A_China-14

12 Propylene Supply & Demand Gap Gap is growing and needs to be filled by; refinery-produced propylene and on-purpose propylene Data Source CMAI 2008 UOP 5033A_China-17

13 Implication for Petrochemical Producers  Up cycle turning, lower demand accelerating  Propylene supply/demand gap increasing  Look for opportunistic feedstocks through refining integration  Energy and feedstock efficiency are key to long term profitability UOP 5033A_China-18

14 What’s New at UOP in Refining? Two technology extensions HF Alkylation SRC UniFlex™ process (slurry hydrocracking) Licensed first of kind technologies LCO Unicracking™ (startup in 2010) LCO-X™ processes (startup in 2011) Ecofining™ process (startup 2010) Maxene (project approved) New Technology Two-Stage TSS (1) operating RxCat (3) operating CCR Platforming™ Process Cyclemax II (7 in startup ) Enhanced Two Stage Unicracking process (2 in startup 2012) SelectFining™ process (1) operating New Equipment Ceramic Optimix™ distributors (1) operating FCC Spent Catalyst distributor for bubbling bed regenerators (1) operating Hydroprocessing reactor internals New Catalyst Installations Low Pt isom portfolio (8) HC-120 Unicracking catalyst for diesel production (1) S 200 catalyst for gasoline desulfurization (1) UOP 5033A_China-23

15 The Demographics Challenge  Graduate numbers need to increase to replace retiring baby boomers  The industry will face a hiring and training crunch Year Crude oil (2007$/bbl) ChE Graduates (100s) UOP

16 Thank You UOP 5033A_China-25


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