2. Space Research Institute Short-term space weather forecast A.A. Petrukovich Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences with contributions from G.N.Zastenker, V.M.Linkin, N.A.Eismont  What is space weather ?  Why is it important ?  Short-term forecast - concept - quality - real-time system

3. Space Research Institute Sun is a very stable star Total solar energy flux - SOLAR CONSTANT SOLAR CONSTANT 1.5 kW per 1 sq. m. 1.5 kW per 1 sq. m.

4. Space Research Institute active sun: ~0.1% solar constant active sun: ~0.1% solar constant cycle with 11 (22) years energy from heat is accumulated in extra magnetic field and released sun spots solar flares solar flares coronal mass ejections geomagnetic storms

5. Space Research Institute 3. Subsequent coronal mass ejection: 1. Sunspot – signature of extra magnetic energy 2. Solar flare in soft X rays – explosive release of energy

6. Space Research Institute Summary of solar emissions 1.Solar UV - variable 2. Solar X-ray - sporadic from solar flares 3. Solar cosmic rays - sporadic from solar flares 4. Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field - permanent flow thermal expansion of solar plasma - magnetic clouds sporadic from solar flares

7. Space Research Institute Solar wind & interplanetary magnetic field interact with Earth magnetic field  Steady solar wind flow create magnetosphere from the pure dipole  Everyday interplanetary variations create geomagnetic activity energy from solar wind powers up magnetospheric dynamics  Magnetic clouds – anomalously intense solar wind and IMF create geomagnetic storms

8. Space Research Institute Earth is inside an electromagnetic system: energy of geomagnetic storm is measured by megatons of TNT All sorts of radiation and Electromagnetic influence: Radio, satellites, …, humans

9. Space Research Institute Spacecraft effects Electrostatic discharge on spacecraft surface Radiation damage to electronics Radiation threat to crews, Especially future interplanetary flights

10. Space Research Institute Telecommunications In XIX cent. space weather effects were observed in wire telegraph lines short wave telecom radars space telecom GPS/GLONASS

11. Space Research Institute Effects on climate and biosphere ?

12. Space Research Institute Summary of space weather Space weather is due to solar activity and plasma environment of Earth Sporadic intensifications “storms” are due to solar flares and magnetic clouds in solar wind affecting Earth Space weather is basically “one for all” – storms are global Monitoring and forecast are important for many technical systems in space and on ground

13. Space Research Institute Summary of forecast long term (months and years) – cycle progression time-series analysis no hurry mid term (weeks) – variability due to rotation (27 days) “recurrence” no hurry flare warning (days & hours) – probability of a flare in given sunspot complexity analysis real time short term (days & hours) – probability of magnetic storm after flare registration propagation analysis real time short term (hours) – storm development based on near Earth solar wind time series analysis real time Physics-based models (requiring HPC) are not competitive currently but will be ? Our interest

14. Space Research Institute Monitoring of interplanetary medium in front of the Earth is currently the only tool to provide reliable quantitative, but short-term, space weather forecast. A L1 Sun-Earth libration point, 1.5 mln km from the Earth, is a convenient place with the lead time of a forecast of about 1 hour. 1 hour forecast >90% reliability Solar light: 300 000 km/s: 8 min 3-day forecast 50% reliability Solar storm Solar wind: 400-1000 km/s: 1.5-3 days Geomagnetic storm Libration point 1.5 mln km 150 mln km solar wind-based short-term forecast: IKI studies

15. Space Research Institute reliability of the L1 monitor due to natural variability of solar wind measurements of solar wind and IMF (1996-1999) Wind (distant) and Interball (near-Earth)

16. Space Research Institute probability of different (by 15%) measurements of energy input ~VB 2 to the magnetosphere Petrukovich et al, JASTP, 2001. magnetic storm (> 10 16 J) predictions are reliable, while substorm predictions are uncertain. ! role of small variations and discontinuities

17. Space Research Institute Geomagnetic indices AL and Kp (measures of magnetic fluctuations) are used as general indicators Future or current indices might be estimated with real-time solar wind. the main problem: significant scatter of index (uncertainty of magnetospheric dynamics) with respect to solar wind input solar wind driving function ~ VB ns

18. Space Research Institute ACE L1 monitoring available in INTERNET

19. Space Research Institute Unreliable measurements (marked by team) error codes ACE in 2001 IMF 5.5% SW 20% intervals > 20 min long IMF 3.9% SW 3.9% IMF & SW 2.1% major reserve: accept data even if it is flagged ACE L1 monitoring Internet availability errors add less than 1 %

20. Space Research Institute ACE data physical quality: real-time and final data compared IMF clock angle wrong by 20-50 o in 1997-2004! 30% error in B ns ! ACE L1 monitoring 2001 corrected only in 2004

21. Space Research Institute NOAA/ SEC download & check Activity estimates Index models Space Research Institute Format & delivery Consumer Blocks Internet download data quality check and filling gaps advection time to Earth IKI solar wind forecast system activity estimates specific predictions product delivery

22. Space Research Institute Overview plots for “now” and +1 hour Examples of general products IKI solar wind forecast system http://www.iki.rssi.ru/forecast since 1999

23. Space Research Institute 1 hour forecast >90% reliability solar storm solar wind: 400-1000 km/s: 1.5-3 days geomagnetic storm Libration point 1.5 mln km 3 mln km from Earth 2 hour forecast Earth gravity larger than solar gravity in balance with Earth gravity solar gravity in balance with Earth gravity + light pressure future solar wind monitors  using micro satellites  placing monitor further away from the Earth Not so far to preserve forecast quality Solar sail is the only solution to keep spacecraft with Earth

24. Space Research Institute hardware instruments: Magnetometer solar wind sensor Cosmic ray sensor total data flow ~100 bits/sec. Total scientific payload weight 2 kg future solar wind monitors "standing point" at 3 mln km requires a spacecraft ~ 25 kg with solar sail ~1000 sq m or ~ 150 kg with solar sail ~6000 sq m sails are made with thin polymer films initial Solar sail deployment tests are underway world wide.

25. Space Research Institute Solar min in 2007 A 2004 forecast What about a new solar cycle ? A 2007 forecast Solar min In 2008 A 2009 forecast a very deep solar min in 2009 Solar wind now on minimum level in 50 years of observations Grand solar minima

26. Space Research Institute Earth as space ecosystem Life depends on Space: Earth climate driven by constant solar energy

27. Space Research Institute Life depends on Space: Earth climate driven by constant solar energy Solar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactions Earth as space ecosystem

28. Space Research Institute Galaxy climate: local interstellar medium and galactic cosmic rays Life depends on Space: Earth climate driven by constant solar energy Solar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactions Earth as space ecosystem

29. Space Research Institute Short-term forecast is an important part of space weather services and is relatively novel technology Real-time data analysis tools (image and time series processing) are necessary Internet technologies are vital to create and use such forecast Proper data conditioning is an important task CONCLUSIONS Thank you !