Presentation on theme: "DRAFT Investor Presentation April 2015. Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures All financial references are expressed in C$ unless."— Presentation transcript:
Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures All financial references are expressed in C$ unless otherwise noted. This presentation contains forward looking statements and estimates. Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information. Additional information can be found in the company’s annual information form, annual MD&A, and on the company’s web site (www.westernforest.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information. During the course of this presentation, certain non-GAAP financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A. 1
Western Forest Products: Company Overview 5 th Largest Canadian Lumber Company Operating on the coast of British Columbia, serving global markets — Largest Crown timber tenure holder in Coastal B.C. — Largest Cedar lumber manufacturer in North America — Timber resource unaffected by Mountain Pine Beetle Ticker – TSX:WEF Common Shares Outstanding – 395.1 million Sales exceeded $1 Billion in 2014 No Controlling Interest 1 – transition of Board of Directors Added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index December 2014 Lumber Capacity: 1.1 billion board feet (1)Brookfield Special Situations Management Limited (“BSSML”) holds no Common Shares as of September 10, 2014 2
A Compelling Pure-Play, Solid Wood Products Investment 3 Margin-focused business strategy. Superior timber asset base and secure fibre supply. High-value, diverse products serving global markets. Strong financial position with attractive cash flow profile. Size and scale with a liquid share capital. Committed to enhancing shareholder value. Western is well-positioned to capitalize on improving industry fundamentals. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Western Forest Products: Margin Focused, Log and Specialty Lumber Company 4 LTM 1 revenues of $1 billion and EBITDA of $109 million. Achieved the second-highest third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA in Company history despite a challenging operating environment and weaker export markets. (1)Last twelve months total external revenue ended December 31, 2014. Revenue by Product 1 Revenue by Market Area 1 Revenue by Currency 1 Revenue from 2009 – LTM
Western Forest Products: A Margin-Focused Business Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) for Logs ~ 6.4 million m3 Internal Log Consumption External Log Sales Domestic Log Markets Export Log Markets Manufacturing Facilities Diverse and Unique Species Mix Hemlock/Balsam Yellow Cedar Diverse and Unique Species Mix Hemlock / Balsam Spruce Yellow Cedar Douglas Fir Western Red Cedar ~60% Logs processed at WFP manufacturing facilities ~40% Logs sold Log Purchases 1 ~ 1.5 million m3 7 sawmills 2 remanufacturing plants Pulp Log Markets Timber resource is directed to highest margin opportunity. 5 (1)Based on the twelve months ended December 31, 2014.
Log Strategy: Directing Volume to Highest Margin Opportunity 6 (1)Based on total external and internal log sales for the twelve months ended December 31, 2014, including purchased logs. Internal transfer values based on Vancouver Log Market prices. Log End Market Domestic Export Pulplogs Description Includes sawlogs, peelers and shingle logs sold through contractual commitments and open market transactions. Represents log sorts produced in excess of internal mill requirements. Typically command premium prices due to strong demand. Volumes committed under long-term fibre supply agreements. Commitments met through internal log supply, supply contracts and open market pulplog purchases. Primary Target Geographies Canada China Korea Japan U.S. Canada % Value 1 % Volume 1 External Log Sales WFP Sawmills All five species of Western’s sawlogs consumed by internal manufacturing operations. Internal log supply supplemented by open market purchases to maximize margin. Canada 4%
Diversified Lumber Product Offering Allows Western to Profitably Serve Multiple Markets Throughout the Cycle 8 Lumber Segment Western Red Cedar Japan Specialty Niche Commodity Description Consumer-orientated products. Naturally durable. Ideal for external uses. Products for traditional post and beam construction. Requires unique and rigorous quality standards. Specialty products and markets. Focused on appearance grades, value-add products. Traditional dimension lumber and developing grades. Currently focused on China. Primary Target Geographie s U.S. Canada Japan U.S. Canada Asia Europe Australia China U.S. % Value 1 % Volume 1 Specialty Segments Example Products (1)Based on lumber sales for the twelve months ended December 31, 2014. 74% 54%
Specialty Products Reduce EBITDA Volatility 9 74% of Western’s lumber revenue is generated from non-commodity products. Specialty lumber sells at a significant premium to commodity lumber. Specialty products provide more stable margins. Product/market diversity and global exposure provide additional opportunities to seek best margin. Cedar, niche and commodity grades will benefit from U.S. housing recovery. (1)Comparison of selling prices for the reported period over the last 4 years. Quarterly selling price (reported in CAD) compared to to KD W S-P-F #2&Btr 2x4 random (reported in USD). (2)Top 4 competitors: West Fraser, Canfor, Interfor, and Conifex. EBITDA Margins² WFP Lumber Sales/mfbm vs. Lumber Price 1 Focus on specialty products delivered 21 consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA.
Western’s Business to Benefit from Global Supply/Demand Factors 10 Highly Attractive Underlying Supply/Demand Dynamics U.S. Economic and Housing Market Recovery Housing market and repair and remodel activity recovering from trough levels. Transition from supply driven to demand driven market expected to result in improved pricing for wood products. Continued Growth in China Economic growth and urbanization. Consumption of wood will increase. Limited domestic fibre supply; increasing need for imports. U.S. Supply Exit from Japan Market Repatriation of U.S. lumber exports back to U.S. market creates opportunity for Western. Government policy designed to increase domestic consumption. Canadian Fibre Supply Reduction Mountain Pine Beetle expected to negatively impact interior fibre supply and lumber production. Eastern Canada AAC reductions. Strong Underlying Demand Drivers for Wood Products Reduced Supply of Fibre 1 2 3 4
New Supply/Demand Dynamics Will Positively Impact Lumber Pricing Reduced supply from traditional sources combined with increased demand from U.S. and Asian markets is expected to benefit lumber prices. 11 Source: Q1 2015 Forest Economic Advisors; Western Forest Products. Housing Starts (North American and Lumber Export Equivalent) vs. Western SPF Lumber Pricing
Competitive Strengths 1.A sustainable, diverse Timber Base providing for a unique range of products. 2.Customer of choice for other coastal log producers due to competitive advantages of scale, financial strength and proximity. 3.Flexible manufacturing platform that can target a variety of global markets. 4.High margin specialty products for the U.S. market – Cedar, Timbers, Moulding & Millwork, Industrial Applications. 5.Low cost access to ocean shipping (Break Bulk, Container & Barge) providing competitive transportation to global markets and avoiding rail congestion. 6.Uniquely positioned to capitalize on growth in U.S. market. Market share in Japan / China may also benefit from repatriation of U.S production. 12
Balanced Capital Allocation Enhances Shareholder Value 13 No controlling shareholder – liquidity enhances shareholder value. Quarterly dividend of $0.02/share (~4% yield). $100 million SIB completed on July 2, 2013 at $1.30/ share. Capital investments to deliver improved cash flow. (1)WFP competitors' return includes West Fraser, Canfor, Interfor and Conifex and is weighted based on market capitalization. WFP Average Daily Trading Volume Annualized Share Price Return % January 1, 2009 to April 9, 2015
Strong Financial Position Provides Flexibility to Grow Low leverage, strong liquidity and no near-term debt maturities: –Net debt / LTM EBITDA of 0.73x –$134 million of liquidity Financial flexibility to invest in the business, pursue high-return growth initiatives, and return capital to shareholders. Non-core assets provide opportunity for additional liquidity (see slide 17). 14 Annual Free Cash Flow Generation 1 Debt and Liquidity Profile – Q4 2014 ($ millions) (1)Defined as EBITDA less interest expense, maintenance capital expenditures and changes in working capital. (2)Excludes deferred and amortized transaction costs. (3)Availability based on gross borrowing base less availability reserve and availability block (per credit agreement), as well as letters of credit.
Strategic Capital & Margin Improvement Plan Contributes Significant EBITDA 15 $125 million of projects are focused on: – Reducing costs – Increasing efficiency – Improving product flexibility – Growing production Capital Plan projected to generate a 29% return. Margin Improvement Plan has delivered $38 million since 2012. Investments ($ millions) 2012- 2014 2015- 2016 Total Approved Projects $64 Future Projects$61 Total$64$61$125
Non-Core Assets 17 AssetDescription Woodfibre Pulp Mill Site Sold to Woodfibre LNG for $21.8 Million. Transaction finalized in February 2015. Orca Quarry Project Lands JV between Polaris and ‘Namgis on Western fee simple lands. Royalty stream based on production. Opportunity to monetize. Southern Island HBU Lands 24 separate properties. Properties range in size from 2 to 255 hectares. Multiple sales of individual properties is likely. Northern Private Timberlands Lands cover roughly 15,000 hectares of freehold property located on northern Vancouver Island. A potential additional source of liquidity.
Demand Drivers: U.S. Economic and Housing Market Recovery 18 U.S. Housing Starts U.S. Repair & Remodel Expenditures 1 Source: Q1 2015 Forest Economic Advisors. Poised to increase shipments to the U.S. as demand and pricing recover.
Demand Drivers: China Growth Has Changed Global Wood Products Demand Dynamics A deficit of domestic fibre will require China to rely on imports. Rising wealth/urbanization trends expected to increase demand for structural and higher grade lumber: –300 million Chinese people (roughly equivalent to the U.S. population) expected to move from rural to urban areas between 2010 and 2025. 19 Chinese Log Imports Chinese Lumber Imports Source: China Customs; International Wood Markets 2
Demand Drivers: U.S. Supply Exit From Japan Creates Market Opportunity Japan continues to be a major source of demand for wood products and lumber from North America: –In recent years, suppliers in the U.S. West have increased export activities to Japan due to a lack of domestic demand in the U.S. –As North American housing markets recover, much of this U.S. supply will be diverted back to local U.S. markets, potentially creating a significant supply gap in Japan for imported lumber. 20 Source: Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport; The Trade Statistics, Japan Ministry of Finance; Japan Lumber Importers’ Association. 3 Japanese Imports of Canadian and U.S. Lumber and Japanese Housing Starts Japanese Lumber Imports of Canadian and U.S. Douglas Fir and Hemlock ~100 million board feet opportunity to replace non-SPF U.S. exports to Japan
Supply Drivers: Canadian Fibre Supply Reduction 21 Source: Q3 2014 Forest Economic Advisors B.C. AAC and Lumber Production Quebec AAC Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic and lower AAC in B.C. and Eastern Canada are expected to have significant negative impact on North American lumber capacity. 4
22 These materials have been prepared by Management of the Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the applicable registration or qualification requirements. Investor Relations Contact Amy Spencer Director of Communications and Government Relations 604-648-4514 IR@westernforest.com