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Metrics Definition Task Force Carl Linvill, Chair—MDTF W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL.

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Presentation on theme: "Metrics Definition Task Force Carl Linvill, Chair—MDTF W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL."— Presentation transcript:

1 Metrics Definition Task Force Carl Linvill, Chair—MDTF W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

2 Overview MDTF work to date Highlights of MDTF recommendations Two unresolved parameters Approval item—MDTF-recommended modeling parameters 2 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

3 MDTF Work to Date Focus: input parameters for scenario-based study cases Agreement on most input parameters Details posted on meeting web page 3 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

4 Highlights—Fuel and Carbon Costs Reference Case carbon cost determined by Data Work Group MDTF recommendations for Scenarios: Natural gas price to be determined 4 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL 2014 Reference Case ValueScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4 $58.00 $100.00$0.00$75.00

5 Highlights—Technology Capital Costs 5 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Solar PV Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day 21%58% 21%53% 21% No change from Reference Case Significantly lower costs than Reference Case

6 Highlights—Technology Capital Costs 6 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Solar Thermal Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day 10%40% 10%30% 25% Less cost reduction than Reference Case Greater cost reductions than Reference Case

7 Highlights—Technology Capital Costs 7 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL $8,200$4,800 $8,200 IGCC w/ CCS Capital Cost by Scenario ($/kW) No change from Reference Case Technology breakthrough

8 Highlights—Technology Capital Costs 8 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL 9%29% 9%24% 9% Wind Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day No change from Reference Case Largest cost reduction Significant cost reduction—but less than S2

9 Highlights—Technology Capital Costs 9 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Geothermal Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day 0%10% 0%10% 0% No change from Reference Case Greater cost reductions than Reference Case

10 Highlights—Technology Capital Costs 10 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Cost of 8 Hour Battery by Scenario $4,500/kW$1,200/kW $2,000/kW $4500 No change from Reference Case Greater cost reductions than Reference Case $4,500/kW

11 Load Adjustments 11 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Adjustments shown are relative to 2034 Reference Case ParameterScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4 Net Load Growth(-0.4%)+ 0.4%(-0.4%)+ 0.4% Incremental EE/DSM0(21%) load reduction 0(11%) load reduction Incremental Electrification TWh (+13% relative to RC) TWh (+5% relative to RC) DG AdjustmentTBD

12 Tax Credits Production Tax Credits: currently applicable to qualifying projects started by 12/31/2014 for the first 10 years of operation 12 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Technology Reference CaseScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4 Biomass$23 through 2014 $23 through 2034 $23 through 2014 $23 through 2034 Biogas$11 through 2014 $11 through 2034 $11 through 2014 $11 through 2034 Geothermal$23 through 2014 $23 through 2034 $23 through 2014 $23 through 2034 Hydro$11 through 2014 $11 through 2034 $11 through 2014 $11 through 2034 Wind$23 through 2014 $23 through 2034 $23 through 2014 $23 through 2034

13 Investment Tax Credits 13 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Technology Reference CaseScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4 CHP10% through % through % through % through 2034 Geothermal10% through % through % through % through 2034 Solar30% through % through % through % through 2034 Wind30% through % through % through % through 2034

14 Renewable Goals ParameterReference CaseScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4 State RPSPer DSIRE Data Base Values in DSIRE Data Base increased by 50% Values in DSIRE Data Base reduced by 50% Values in DSIRE Data Base increased by 50% Federal RPS0015% minimum RPS 0 In-State RPS Requirement Per DSIRE Data Base No in-state preference Per DSIRE Data Base Current in-state preference applied to current requirements No in-state preference for incremental requirements 14 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

15 Additional Decision Items Natural gas prices Incremental DG Load peak adjustments 15 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

16 Decision Item The MDTF requests that the SPSG approve the recommended modeling parameters for the scenario-based long-term study cases to be completed in W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL


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