1. Chapter 4: Foreign Policy Decision Making

2. Rational Choice Perspective
Generally the model presented by leaders as how they decide on policy
Assumes policy decisions are made carefully through well defined processes that pursue clearly defined goals.
Risks and benefits are measured and balanced
Optimal solutions are selected as policy

3. Policy Making as Rational Choice
Problem recognition and definition
Goal selection
Identification of alternatives
Choice
Associated with realist/state as unitary actor
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4. Factors Impacting Foreign Policy System Level Factors
Polarity
Degree of concentration of military/economic power among major states
Polarization
How firmly minor states cluster around the major powers in alliances
Geopolitics – Impact of geographic characteristics

5. Military Capabilities
Domestic Factors:
Military Capabilities
States actions are constrained by their military strength
No aggression w/out power projection capability
Boldness connected with military capability
Japan? Iran? Canada? US? Etc…

6. Domestic Factors: Economic Capacity
Capable to supply, resupply a military?
Capable to sustain a siege

7. Domestic Factors: Government type Democracy Autocratic rule
Is there a connection between type of government and foreign policy?
Democratic Peace?
Democratic weakness?
Autocratic aggressiveness?

8. Rational political ambition hypothesis:
Domestic Factors:
Rational political ambition hypothesis:
Leaders like to maintain or expand their role – foreign policy decisions made to keep leaders in power
Britain – Argentina in the Faulklands
“Wag the Dog” concept….
Clinton in Lybia?
Bush in Iraq?

9. Organizational Factors Bureaucratic Politics
Competition / Rivalry of various agencies
Inability / Unwillingness to share across bureaucratic boundaries
Standard Operating procedures

10. Organizational Factors Bureaucratic Politics
Competition / Rivalry of various agencies
Inability / Unwillingness to share across bureaucratic boundaries
Standard Operating procedures
Tendency to inertia
Limited innovation

11. Individual leaders matter
Individual Level
Individual leaders matter
Individual talents and limitations determine much of policy
Hitler, Chamberlain, Churchill, etc.
Leaders self-image, confidence: “political efficacy”
Individual leaders are more influential in unusual, crisis situations
Bush 9/11, Roosevelt in Depression and WW II

12. Constraints on Policy-making
Leaders project (and Realists expect) “Rationality” and states as “Unitary Actors”
Leaders face constraints on Rationality:
2-level game
Maintain domestic influence and power
Promote desirable foreign policy

13. Constraints on Policy-making
Complexity and limited processing ability may lead to:
Satisficing: Choosing an option that meets a minimally acceptable level of satisfaction rather than pressing on for the very best or optimal level of achievement

14. Constraints on Policy-making Prospect Theory:
The idea that leaders level of risk tolerance is greater when avoiding a loss than when pursuing a gain.
Leaders will risk a huge loss to avoid a minor loss
Leaders will risk only minor losses in pursuit of even major gains

15. Constraints on Policy-making Leaders focus on “Sunk Costs”
Rational decisions consider future looking costs/benefits
Sunk costs are gone and can’t be changed
Rational decisions disregard sunk costs
Making decisions based on sunk costs is “throwing good money after bad”
Political leaders tend to fall into the sunk costs trap
“they must not have died in vain”

16. Constraints on Policy-making
Group Think
Newgroup Syndrome: Tendency to bandwagon with prominent, assertive thinkers

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Transnational Actors
Countries
International organizations
Multinational corporations
Nongovernmental organizations
Indigenous nationalities
Terrorist networks
Individuals
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18. Foreign Policy Analysis
Bureaucracies
Decision-making in organizations
Psychological characteristics of leaders
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19. Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch
The head of government is responsible for making policy
The country needs to have a single voice abroad
Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government
In presidential government systems, the head of government is the chief executive officer of the executive branch. In the United States, the president is the head of government. In Great Britain, Japan, Spain, Sweden and Canada, the prime minister serves as the head of government.
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20. Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy
The “power of the purse”
Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs
“Pentagon Papers” 1971
Pentagon Papers: the name for a series of top-secret documents prepared by the U.S. Department of Defense regarding U.S. involvement in Vietnam. In 1971, the documents were leaked to the New York Times, and led to a series of protests, political controversies and lawsuits, culminating in Supreme Court rulings regarding First Amendment issues.
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21. The Rational Action Model
A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal
Calculates costs and benefits
What goal does this policy serve?
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22. Expected Utility Theory
Payoffs and profitability
Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability
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23. Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies
Department of State and Department of Defense
CIA and NSA
Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests.
In Great Britain (and most other countries), bureaucratic departments are known as ministries.
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24. The Organizational Process Model
Procedures influence decision content
Standard operating procedures
Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations
Standard operating procedures are the hallmark of bureaucracies, from the military to intelligence-gathering operations.
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25. Small Group Decision Making
Groupthink
May be caused by need for consensus
The tendency for groupthink is one of the reasons organizations (including governments) tend to favor continuity over change. In some cases, disagreeing with the leader has negative consequences for individuals, leading to reduced access and influence. In extreme cases (such as the Stalin regime), it leads to imprisonment, exile or execution.
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26. Individual Decision Making
Perception and misperception
Motivated and unmotivated bias
Bounded rationality
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Attribution Theory
Fundamental Attribution Bias
Naïve scientists
Pre-existing beliefs
Security dilemma
During the Cold War, the United States interpreted a variety of Soviet actions as proof of aggressive expansion plans, particularly the installation of pro-Soviet governments in Poland, Czechoslovakia and East Germany.
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Historical Lessons
Lessons of WW I
Lessons of WW II
Lessons of Korean War
The Lessons of Vietnam
Lessons of Iraq (1991)
Lessons of Afghanistan
Lessons of Iraq (2003)
???????
The lessons of Vietnam still resonate in U.S. elections and policymaking. However, decision-makers are uneven in their use of history, and often disagree about its lessons.
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29. Other Theories of Decision-Making
Prospect Theory
Status quo Bias
Motivated Bias
Cognitive Dissonance
Two-level games
Satisficing
Satisficing: the tendency for decision makers to choose the first satisfactory option, rather than searching for a better alternative
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30. A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making
The determinants or the factors that influence the foreign policy choices of transnational actors are shown here as a “funnel of causality.” This construction classifies three categories of influence in the foreign policy making process, whereby policy “inputs” shape the decisions that produce policy “outputs.”
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31. Policy Making as Rational Choice
Problem recognition and definition
Goal selection
Identification of alternatives
Choice
Associated with realist/state as unitary actor
1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
2003 Iraq War
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32. Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity
Personality
Degree of control over foreign policy
Sense of political efficacy
Amount of available information
Ability to deal with crises
“Great person” versus zeitgeist debate
The Bush Doctrine in the early 2000s is an example of the history-making individuals model of policy decision making.
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33. Influences on Foreign Policy Choice
International
Polarity and polarization
Geographic position
Domestic
Military capabilities
Economic conditions
Type of government
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34. Democratic Peace Theory
Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states.
Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run.
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35. Interest Groups in Foreign Policy
What do they want?
Money, protection, policy
How do they influence foreign policy?
Votes, money, lobbyists
To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy?
Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states
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Public Opinion
What does public opinion look like?
What effect should public opinion have on policy?
What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy?
What influences public opinion on foreign policy?
In 1898, public opinion forced the United States into the Spanish-American War, as Americans blamed Spanish forces for destroying the U.S. Battleship Maine, harbored in Cuba, and demanded retribution. Recently, how has public opinion influenced the course of war in Iraq?
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37. The Media in Foreign Policy
Media in WW II? Korea?
Media in Viet Nam?
The businesses aspect of journalism
Efforts to influence media coverage
Media power: “the CNN effect”
The mass media are those sources directed at the broadest groups in society, including large-circulation newspapers, news magazines, television shows and radio programs. The influence and range of Internet media sources are more difficult to measure.
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38. Three Models of Influence
Rational action model
Bureaucratic politics model
Organizational process model
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39. Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy
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40. How Free is Your Country?
The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators ranks countries by the level of freedom citizens have to voice opinions and choose their government. Liberal democratic theory predicts that as freedom across countries increases, so will peaceful relations among these democracies.
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41. Questions for Critical Thinking (1 of 2)
What factors explain why George W. Bush did not take action when given intelligence warnings of impending terrorist attacks in the weeks prior to September 11, 2001?
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the history-making individuals model? Who qualifies as a history-making individual?
What factors explain why bureaucracies do not always produce the best options?
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42. Questions for Critical Thinking (2 of 2)
What are some contemporary examples of the importance of geopolitics?
In what ways does the individual level of analysis affect foreign policy making?
How does public opinion in the U.S. affect current foreign policy?
What are the three most influential mass media in this country?
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Web Links
The Cuban Missile Crisis
Freedom, Democracy, Peace, Power, Democide, and War
Freedom House
The Presidents: PBS’s The American Experience
The Cuban Missile Crisis is a classic example of crisis decision making. This site provides an in-depth account and analysis of the crisis and the actors and issues involved. It also contains an audio archive of President John F. Kennedy’s meetings during the crisis.
Freedom, Democracy, Peace, Power, Democide, and War: Political scientist Rudolph J. Rummel’s website is devoted to the study of the cases and conditions of war and violence in the world, with a view toward bringing about their elimination.
Freedom House: This nonprofit organization focuses on threats to peace and democracy.
The Presidents” PBS’s The American Experience: This site features discussions on the most prominent presidents of the twentieth century, and describes the foreign policy achievements of individual presidents.
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