1. CHAPTER 14: CLIMATE PHENOMENA AND THEIR RELEVANCE FOR FUTURE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE Amanda Sheffield December 8, 2014 Christensen, J.H., K. Krishna Kumar, E. Aldrian, S.-I. An, I.F.A. Cavalcanti, M. de Castro, W. Dong, P. Goswami, A. Hall, J.K. Kanyanga, A. Kitoh, J. Kossin, N.-C. Lau, J. Renwick, D.B. Stephenson, S.-P. Xie and T. Zhou, 2013: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

2. Table of Contents “This chapter assesses the scientific literature on projected changes in major climate phenomena and more specifically their relevance for future change in regional climate, contingence on global mean temperatures continue to rise.” “The dynamics of regional climates are determined by local weather systems that control the net transport of heat, moisture and momentum into a region.”  14.1 Introduction  14.2 Monsoon Systems  14.3 Tropical Phenomena  14.4 El Nino-Southern Oscillation  14.5 Annular and Dipolar Modes  14.6 Large-scale Storm Systems  14.7 Additional Phenomena of Relevance  14.8 Future Regional Climate Change

3. 3 Main Classes of Phenomena “The following large-scale phenomena are increasingly well simulated by climate models and so provide a scientific basis for understanding and developing credibility in future regional climate change.”  Monsoons and Tropical Convergence Zones (i.e. seasonal movement of convergence zones over land, convergence over tropical oceans, leading to profound seasonal changes in local hydrological cycles)  Modes of Climate Variability (i.e. ENSO, NAO/NAM, SAM, PNA, PDO, AMO).  No Change - the modes will continue to behave as they have done in the recent past  Index Changes - the probability distributions of the mode indices may change  Spatial Changes – the climate patterns associated with the modes may change spatially or the local amplitudes of the climate patterns may change  Structural Changes – the types and number of modes and their mutual dependencies may change; completely new modes could in principle emerge.  Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones  No focus on local feedback processes

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7. Monsoon Systems

8. Global Monsoon System  Global Monsoon Total Precipitation (GMP)  Global Monsoon Area (GMA)  Global Monsoon Intensity (GMI = GMP/GMA)  Standard Dev of Interannual Variability in Seasonal Avg Precipitation (PsD)  Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity (SDII) (GMP/# days > 1 mm)  Seasonal Maximum 5-day Precipitation Total (R5d)  Seasonal Maximum Consecutive Dry Days (CDD)  Monsoon Season Duration (DUR) Fig. 14.1: Upper: GMA: GPCP Observed (black contour), CMIP5 History Sim (blue), RCP8.5 (orange) Lower: (2080-2099) relative to (1986-2005) for the RCP scenarios Onset early, retreat delayed Very Likely Very Likely

9. CMIP5 Simulated Anomalies (relative to 1986-2005)  Lower-troposphere wind convergence (dynamical factor) decrease [d] with increased moisture results in increase moisture flux convergence [c].  Surface evaporation increase [b] with warmer SSTs  GMP [a] increases due to increase in [c] and [b] despite a weakened monsoon circulation  Source of uncertainty: aerosol loading (direct effect) as aerosol forcing differs among models Fig. 14.2 : Historical (Grey), RCP2.6 (Dark Blue), RCP4.5 (Light Blue), RCP6.0 (Orange), RCP8.5 (Red)

10. Regional Land Monsoon Domain Fig. 14.3: N. America Monsoon System (NAMS), N. Africa (NAF), S. Asia (SAS), E. Asia (EAS), S. America Monsoon System (SAMS), S. Africa (SAF), Australian- Maritime Continent (AUSMC) Asian- Australian Monsoon (AAM) (incl. WNP)

11. Fig. 14.4 (similar to fig. 14.2)  Present day average in average precipitation (Pav)  Monsoon onset date (ONS)  Monsoon retreat date (RET) Model agreement low

12. Fig. 14.5: Summer Monsoon Indices (21 year running mean) relative to (1986-2005) (JJA, SLP difference)(JJA, 850 hPa zonal wind avg) (DJF, 850 hPa zonal wind avg) Monsoon Circulation

13. Unchanged Limited by ability to capture mesoscale squall lies Decrease

14. Monsoon Systems: Executive Summary  There is growing evidence of improved skill of climate models in reproducing climatological features of the global monsoon.  The global monsoon is likely to strengthen in the 21 st c. with increases in its area and intensity, while the monsoon circulation weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not change much and monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions.  Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in S. America, Africa, East Asia, S. Asia, SE Asia, and Australia. Lesser model agreement results in medium confidence that the monsoon-related interannual precipitation variability will increase in the future.  There is medium confidence that overall precipitation associated with the AAM will increase but with a N-S asymmetry:  Indian and EAS monsoon precipitation is projected to increase  Australian summer monsoon precipitation changes are small  There is medium confidence that the Indian summer monsoon circulation will weaken, but yet has increased precipitation due increased moisture convergence. For the summer EAS, both the monsoon circulation and precipitation are projected to increase.  There is medium confidence that the increase of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its extremes throughout the 21 st c. will be the largest among all monsoons.  There is low confidence in projections of changes in precipitation amounts for the NAMS and SAMS, but medium confidence that the NAMS will arrive and persist later in the annual cycle, and high confidence in expansion of the SAMS area.  There is low confidence in projections of a small delay in the development of the W. African rainy season and intensification of late-season rains. Model limitation in representing central features of the W. African monsoon result in low confidence in future projections.

15. Tropical Phenomena  “Tropical convection over the oceans, averaged for a month or longer, is organized into long and narrow convergence zones, often anchored by SST structures. Latent heat release in convection drives atmospheric circulation and affects global climate.”  “…studies since AR4 show that such changes [i.e. changes to tropical convection] in a warmer climate also depend on the spatial pattern of SST warming.”  “In CMIP3/5 model projections, annual rainfall change over tropical oceans follows a ‘warmer-get-wetter’ pattern, increasing where the SST warming exceeds the tropical mean and vice versa.”  Greater warming in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere Fig. 14.8: Annual mean precipitation percentage change (grey-green shading) and relative SST change to the tropical mean warming in RCP8.5.

16. Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)  Over the Atlantic and eastern half of the Pacific, the ITCZ is displaced north of the equator due to ocean-atmosphere interaction and extratropical influences  Many models show an unrealistic double-ITCZ pattern over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic  In CMIP5, seasonal mean rainfall is projected to increase on the equatorward flank of the ITCZ

17. Indian Ocean Modes  Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode featuring a basin-wide structure SST of the same sign  Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode with largest amplitude in SST in the eastern Indian Ocean off Indonesia, and weaker anomalies of the opposite over the rest of the basin  Both are correlated with ENSO and model simulated well  Equatorial Indian Ocean include easterly wind anomalies, a shoaling thermocline, and reduced SST warming in the east  IOD variability in SST remains nearly unchanged in the future projections despite the easterly wind change that lifts the thermocline Fig 14.10: Sept. to Nov. changes in CMIP5 ensemble [(2081-2100) – 1986- 2005)]. (a) SST (grey-green) and precipitation and (b) surface wind velocity and sea surface height deviation from the global mean (contours) Fig. 14.10: CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean standard deviation of interannual variability for Sept.-Nov. Pre-Industrial RCP8.5

18. Other Phenomena  South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)  Influences South Pacific Island nations, most pronounced during DJF  Often simulated lying east-west, missing the southeastward orientation and creating the ‘double ITCZ’ pattern  CMIP3/5 simulate much more frequent zonally oriented SPCZ events in the future due to reduction in near-equatorial meridional SST gradient -> longer dry spells in the southwest Pacific  South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)  Extends from the Amazon through southwest Brazil towards the Atlantic during austral summer  CMIP3/5 suggests southward displacement and intensification of the southern center of the precipitation dipole (increase in precipitation in SE S. America, south of 25S)  Consistent with the southward displacement of the Atlantic subtropical high and southward expansion of the Hadley Cell  Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)  Possible changes in the MJO in future warmer climate only just beginning to be explored  Sensitive to the spatial pattern of SST  “In light of the low skill in simulating the MJO, and its sensitive to SST warming pattern, which in itself is subject to large uncertainties, it is currently not possible to assess how the MJO will change in a warmer climate.”  Atlantic Ocean Modes  “The biases severely limit model skill in simulating modes of Atlantic climate variability and in projecting future climate change in the Atlantic sector. In depth analysis of the CMIP5 projections of Atlantic Ocean Modes has not yet been fully explored…”

19. Tropical Systems: Executive Summary  Based on models’ ability to reproduce general features of the Indian Ocean Dipole and agreement on future projections, the tropical Indian Ocean is likely to feature a zonal pattern of change in the future with reduced warming and decreased precipitation in the east, and increased warming and increased precipitation in the west, directly influencing East Africa and Southeast Asia precipitation.  A newly identified robust feature in model simulations of tropical precipitation over oceans gives medium confidence that annual precipitation change follows a ‘warmer-get-wetter’ pattern, increasing where warming of SST exceeds the tropical mean and vice versa.  Medium confidence in projections showing an increase in seasonal mean precipitation on the equatorial flank of the ITCZ affecting parts of Central America, the Caribbean, S. America, Africa and W. Asia, despite shortcomings in many models simulating the ITCZ  Medium confidence that the frequency of zonally oriented SPCZ events will increase, with SPCZ lying well to the NE of its average position, resulting in reduced precipitation over many S. pacific island nations.  Medium confidence that the SACZ will shift southwards leading to an increase in precipitation over SE S. America and reduction immediately north thereof  Low confidence in projections of future changes in the MJO owing to poor ability of models simulation.  Low confidence in the projections of future changes for the tropical Atlantic, because of systematic errors in model simulations of current climate. Future changes to Atlantic hurricanes and tropical S. American and W. African precipitation are uncertain.

20. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)  Little consensus as to whether the decadal modulations of ENSO (amplitude and spatial pattern) during recent decades are due to anthropogenic effects of natural variability.  Because the change in tropical mean conditions in a warming climate is model dependent, changes in ENSO intensity for the 21 st century is uncertain.  There is little improvement in the CMIP5 ensemble relative to CMIP3 in the amplitude and spatial correlation metrics of precipitation teleconnections in response to ENSO, in particular within regions of strong observed precipitation teleconnections. Fig. 14.13: Intensities for the last 60 years, Nino3 = E. Eq. Pac., Nino4 = Central Eq. Pac. Fig. 14.14: Standard Dev. In CMIP5 ensemble of SST over the Nino3 region for pre-industrial (PI), 20 th c., RCP4.5, RCP8.5.

21. ENSO: Executive Summary  The realism of the representation of ENSO in climate models is increasing and models simulate ongoing ENSO variability in the future. Therefore there is high confidence that ENSO very likely remains as the dominant mode of interannual variability in the future and due to increased moisture availability on regional scales likely intensifies.  Natural modulations of the variance and spatial pattern of ENSO are so large in models that confidence in any specific projected change in its variability in the 21 st century remains low. Fig. 14.12: Warmer World: Trade winds weaken, the thermocline flattens and shoals, the upwelling is reduced although the mean vertical temperature gradient is increased, and SSTs (shown as anomalies w.r.t. the mean tropical–wide warming) increase more on the equator than off. Absolute SST fields are on the left, SST anomalies on the right (blue colors indicate a warming smaller than the basin mean, not a cooling)

22. Annular and Dipolar Modes Fig. 14.16: DJF mean SLP indices for historical and RCP4.5 scenarios. (top) Time series of ensemble mean, (bottom) 2081-2100 vs 1986-2005 time means  Models are generally able to simulate gross features of annual and dipolar modes  Model agreement in projections indicates that future boreal wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is very likely to exhibit large natural variations and trend of similar magnitude to that observed in the past and is likely to become slightly more positive on average, with some, but not well documented, implications for winter conditions in the Arctic, N. America, and Eurasia.  The austral summer/autumn positive trend in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely to weaken considerably as stratospheric ozone recovers through the mid- 21 st c. with some, but not well documented, implications for S. America, Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Antarctica.

23. Large Scale Storm Systems  Tropical Cyclones:  It is likely that the global frequency of occurrences of TCs will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean TC maximum wind speed and precipitation rates. The future influence of climate change on TCs is likely to vary by region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.  Medium confidence that precipitation will be more extreme near the centers of TCs making landfall in N. and Central America, E. Africa, W., E., S. and SE. Asia as well as in Australia and many Pacific Islands  The frequency of the most intense storms will more likely than not increase substantially in some basins.  Extratropical Cyclones:  Despite systematic biases in simulating storm tracks, most models and studies are in agreement on the future changes in the number of ETCs. The global number of ETCs is unlikely to decrease by more than a few percent. A small poleward shift is likely in the S. Hemisphere storm track.  More likely than not, based on projections with medium confidence, that the N. Pacific storm track will shift poleward.  Unlikely that the response of the N Atlantic storm track is a simple poleward shift.  There is low confidence in the magnitude of regional storm track changes, and the impact of such changes on regional surface climate.  It is very likely that increases in Arctic, N. European, N. American and SH winter precipitation by the end of the 21 st c. (2081-2100) will result from more precipitation in ETCs associated with enhanced extremes of storm- related precipitation.

25. Future Regional Climate Change  External forcings vary regionally  Surface conditions vary spatially  Weather systems and ocean currents redistribute heat and moisture from one region to another  See Annex 1 for more specific regional figures

26. Arctic  Arctic climate is affected by three modes of variability: NAO, PDO, and AMO. ETCs are mainly responsible for winter precipitation in the region.  It is likely Arctic surface temperature changes will be strongly influenced by anthropogenic forcing over the coming decades dominating the natural variability such as induced by NAO. It is likely the pan- Arctic region will experience a significant increase in precipitation by mid-century due mostly to enhanced precipitation in ETCs. Fig. AI.10 & AI.11: Time series relative change to 1986-2005 for the RCP scenarios

27. North America Fig. 14.18: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)  Climate affected by NAO, ENSO, PNA, PDO, NAMS, TCs and ETCs  It is very likely that by mid-century the anthropogenic warming signal will be large compared to natural variability…in all NA regions throughout the year. It is likely that the northern half of NA will experience an increase in precipitation over the 21 st c., due in large part to precipitation increase within ETCs.

28. Central America and Caribbean  Climate affected by ITCZ, NAMS, ENSO, and TCs  Owing to model agreement on projections and the degree of consistency with observed trends, it is likely warm-season precipitation will decrease in the Caribbean region, over the coming century. However, there is only medium confidence that Central America will experience a decrease in precipitation. Fig. 14.19: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)

29. South America Fig. 14.20: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)  Climate affected by ENSO, Atlantic Ocean modes, SAMS, SACZ, Atlantic ITCZ, teleconnections such as the PSA, SAM, ETCs, and IOD.  It is very likely temperatures will increase over the whole continent, with greatest warming projected in southern Amazonia. It is likely there will be an increase (reduction) in the frequency of warm (cold) nights in most regions.  It is very likely precipitation will increase in the southern sector of SE and NW SA, and decrease in Central Chile and extreme north of the continent. It is very likely that less rainfall will occur in E Amazonia, NE and E Brazil during the dry season. However, in the rainy season there is medium confidence in the precipitation changes over these regions. There is high confidence in an increase of precipitation extremes.

30. Europe and Mediterranean  Climate affected by NAO, ETCs, blocking, AMO, and others in limited sectors of the region  There is high confidence in model projections of mean temperature in this region. It is very likely that temperatures will continue to increase through the 21 st c. over all of EUR and the MED region. It is likely that winter mean temperature will rise more in NEU than in CEU or MED, whereas summer warming will likely be more intense in MED and CEU than in NEU. The length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves are assessed to be very likely to increase throughout the whole region.  There is medium confidence in an annual mean precipitation increase in NEU and CEU, while a decrease is likely in MED summer mean precipitation. Fig. 14.22: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)

31. Africa  4 sub-regions: Sahara (SAH), W. Africa (WAF), E. Africa (EAF), S. Africa (SAF)  Climate affected by insolation (tropical rainfall regions), monsoons, ENSO, Indian and Atlantic SSTs (IOD, AMM, AMO), Walker circulation, TCs, and ETCs  It is very likely that all of Africa will continue to warm during the 21 st c. The SAH, already very dry, is likely to remain very dry. But there is low confidence in projection statements about drying or wetting of WAF.  Owing to models’ ability to capture the overall monsoonal behavior, there is medium confidence in projections of a small delay in the rainy season with an increase at the end of the season. There is medium confidence in projections showing little change in mean precipitation in EAF and reduced precipitation in Austral winter in SAF, as models tend to represent Indian Ocean SST developments with credibility. Likewise, increasing rainfall in EAF is likely for the short rainy season, but low confidence exists in projections regarding drying or wetting of the long rainy season. Fig. 14.23: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)

32. Asia Fig. 14.24: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)

33. West Asia Fig. 14.26: Precipitation changes from (2080-2099) compared to (1986-2005)

34. Asia  Central and N. Asia: All the areas are projected to warm, stronger than global mean warming during winter. For central Asia, warming magnitude is similar between winter and summer. Precipitation in N. Asia will very likely increase, whereas the precipitation over central Asia is likely to increase. Extreme precipitation events will likely increase in both regions.  E. Asia: There is medium confidence that with an intensified E. Asian summer monsoon, summer precipitation over E. Asia will increase. Under RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation increase is likely over E. Asia during…May to July, and precipitation extremes are very likely to increase over the E. Asian continent in all seasons and over Japan in the summer. However, there is only low confidence in more specific details of the projected changes due to the limited skill of CMIP5 models in simulation monsoon features.  W. Asia: Since AR4 climate models appear to have only modestly improved fidelity in simulating aspects of large-scale climate phenomena influencing regional climates over W. Asia. Model agreement, however, indicates that it is very likely that temperatures will continue to increase. But at the same time, model agreement on projected precipitation changes have reduced, resulting in medium confidence in projections showing an overall reduction in precipitation.  S. Asia: There is high confidence in projected rise in temperature. There is medium confidence in summer monsoon precipitation increase in the future over S. Asia. Model projections diverge on smaller regional scales.  SE Asia: Warming is very likely to continue with substantial sub-regional variations. There is medium confidence in a moderate increase in rainfall, except on Indonesian islands neighboring the SE Indian Ocean. Strong regional variations are expected because of the terrain.

35. Australia and New Zealand  Climate affected by monsoon circulation, ENSO, SAM, mid-latitude storm track and transient wave propagation  It is likely that cool season precipitation will decrease over S. AUS associated in part with trends in the SAM, the IOD, and a poleward shift and expansion of the subtropical dry zones. It is very likely that AUS will continue to warm through the 21 st c., at a rate similar to the global land surface mean. The frequency of very warm days is very likely to increase through this century, across the whole country.  It is very likely that temperatures will continue to rise over NZ. Precipitation is likely to increase in W. regions in winter and spring, but the magnitude of the change is likely to remain comparable to that of natural climate variability through the rest of the century. In summer and autumn, it is as likely as not that precipitation amounts will change. Fig. 14.27: Precipitation changes from (2080- 2099) compared to (1986-2005)

36. Antarctica  Consistency across CMIP5 projections suggests it is very likely that Antarctic temperatures will increase through the rest of the century, but more slowly than the global mean rate of increase. SSTs of the oceans around Antarctica are likely to rise more slowly than surface air temperature over the Antarctic land mass.  As temperatures rise, it is also likely that precipitation will increase, up to 20% or more over E. Antarctic. However, given known difficulties associated with correctly modeling Antarctic climate, and uncertainties associated with future SAM and ENSO trends and the extent of Antarctic sea ice, precipitation projections have only medium confidence. Fig. AI.77, AI.76, AI.78: