1. Environmental Effects on Recruitment of Northern Shrimp in the Gulf of Maine Anne Richards Michael Fogarty David Mountain NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Woods Hole, MA

2. stock-recruit-environment relations mechanisms for recruit-env’t relation Outline

3. Northern Shrimp Pandalus borealis Boreal distribution Gulf of Maine=southern limit Locally important fishery from Shumway et al. 1985 Life history Fishery

4. Impetus Conventional wisdom: temperature = primary regulating factor will “…not respond well to attempts to control exploitation” (Apollonio et al. 1986)

5. Stock-Recruitment Series 1968-2002

6. Environmental Variables Temperature anomalies (W Gulf of Maine) –fall bottom: developmental rates, egg parasitism –spring bottom: developmental rates, hatch timing –spring surface: larval development NAO winter index

7. Analysis Box-Jenkins TSA to ID factors affecting recruitment S-R with environmental inputs

8. Results – TSA Significant crosscorrelations with recruitment 1 -4 Spring Bottom TA -1NAO - Spring Surface TA +2SSB LagSign without 2002 Planktonic larvae Male maturation, gender transition

9. Stock-Recruitment Models Time periodVariables testedModel r 2 1968-2001SSB Spring surface TA Spring bottom TA r 2 =0.46 1968-2002SSB Spring surface TA Spring bottom TA r 2 =0.29

10. Stock-Recruit-Temperature

11. Conclusion Shrimp recruitment dependent on SSB and spring temperatures (surface and bottom)

12. Mechanisms: Spring SST Spring surface temperature effect (larvae): –Appears intuitively correct –But counters laboratory studies: better growth and survival at warmer temperatures. –Indirect effect, e.g. match-mismatch?

13. Match-Mismatch Hypothesis Coastal Gulf of Maine: Bloom timing determined by solar insolation (Townsend and coauthors) Shrimp development: temperature- dependent

14. Match-Mismatch Hypothesis –Bloom timing –Hatch timing –Survival rates

15. Bloom Timing Townsend and Cammen (1988): 1971-1980 CZCS and SeaWifs ’78-’86, ’98-’03

16. Hatch Dates Maine DMR fishery sampling, 1980-1983 and 1989-1993 Probit analysis: 50% hatch, duration of hatch

17. Hatch Timing

18. Shrimp Development temperature-dependent

19. Bloom Onset and Hatch Timing

20. Survival

21. Larval Shrimp Diet Zooplankton bloom ~ one month later (Townsend 1984) Stickney and Perkins (1980) Stage I larvae

22. Implications

23. Application Management: Adjust fishing effort to allow higher egg deposition in warmer years

24. Stephen H. Clark Summary 1) SSB and spring temperatures affect GoM shrimp rcrt 2) Spring SST effect may be mediated through match-mismatch

25. Ongoing Work Bloom timing –Solar insolation, 1982- 1999 –CZCS / SeaWiFS, ‘83-’91, ‘97-’03 Hatch timing