Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes Fei CHAI University of Maine U.S.A. 1.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes Fei CHAI University of Maine U.S.A. 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes Fei CHAI University of Maine U.S.A. 1

2 FC 2 1-km4-km Sea Surface Temperature ( SST ) Sea Surface Height ( SSH ) 3 day averaged model output 1993 to km 2006 Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS): 12-km Resolution 1993

3 First Mode of EOF Analysis of SSH ModelSatellite

4 4 How to Link?

5 3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling Modular Ocean Model (MOM) Basin scale, coarse resolution (0.5 o to 2 o ), Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) Basin scale, finer resolution (1/2 o ), Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) Basin scale, finer resolution (12.5km), West Coast of the North America (NCOM) 9 Km with physical data assimilation, present Gulf of Maine (POM) 3 Km resolution with SST assimilation, present

6 Ekman Pumping Anomaly and Modeled Chlorophyll Front (0.2 mg/m 3 ) Anomaly PDO Index and Modeled Primary Production Anomaly Winter surface NO 3 difference ( ) - ( ) Chai et al., 2003

7 FC ROMS-Biology (50-km) Simulated Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m 3 ) Gulf of Alaska, averaged 15 May - 15 June ( ) Jan.AprilAug.Dec

8 Coupled Bio-Physical Modeling NRL West Coast NCOM with SeaWIFS Chlorophyll NRL West Coast NCOM with Model Chlorophyll Monthly Sequence: June – August 2001

9 9 Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) Simulation Annual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Modeled SST ( o C) Satellite SST ( o C) 9

10 10 Surfare Chlorophyll Comparison in situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS Historical Data SeaWiFS

11 Seasonal SST Comparison ObservedQuikScatNCEPCOADS Jan Dec

12 An Individual Based Model (IBM) for Peruvian Anchovy Model the entire anchovy life history: spawning events, egg hatching, larva development, growth of juvenile and adults Based on conservation of energy (bioenergetics): growth=consumption-respiration-egestion-excretion Input: temperature and four plankton groups from ROMS-CoSiNE; Output: anchovy growth (length and weight) 3D circulation, offline simulation, output: location, length and weight

13 mesozooplanktonRecruitment diatom Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO There is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm. Strong El Nino Moderate El Nino Temperature diatom mesozooplankton Recruitment

14 14 El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy Fishery Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Annual Anchovy Catch 10 x 10 6 MT

15 GoMOOS - Goal To provide data and data products that serve public and private sector needs for: solving practical problems predicting events, and further understanding natural systems in the Gulf of Maine

16 Xue et al., CRS, 2006

17 Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, April 2002 SeaWiFS April 2002

18 Comparing with Buoy B, E, I Black: buoy (night time values) Red: model Green: SeaWiFS

19 FC Challenges and Recommendations Physical, nutrients, plankton, and higher levels Improving physical models, data assimilation Spatial and temporal scales, Basin-regional-local; seasonal, interannual, and decadal Surface forcing (wind, heat, fresh water), boundaries Cannot proceed by simply including more variables Simplify the problem with focusing on target species Incorporating structured population and IBM Considering uncertainties, probabilistic simulations Better communication


Download ppt "Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes Fei CHAI University of Maine U.S.A. 1."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google