4How to Link? Fishing Suspension- feeding Nano- Benthivorous Fish PelagicInvertebratePredatorsPhytoplanktonSeabirdsDeposit-feedingBenthosSuspension-feedingDOCAmmoniaFishingDetritusMicro-ZooplanktonMeso-Nitrate+NitriteNano-PlanktivorousPiscivorousPre-recruitsMarineMammalsspawningrecruitmentBacteriaHow to Link?
53D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling Modular Ocean Model (MOM)Basin scale, coarse resolution (0.5o to 2o),Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)Basin scale, finer resolution (1/2o),Basin scale, finer resolution (12.5km),West Coast of the North America (NCOM)9 Km with physical data assimilation, presentGulf of Maine (POM)3 Km resolution with SST assimilation, present
6Chai et al., 2003 Winter surface NO3 difference (1979-90) - (1964-75) PDO Index andModeled PrimaryProduction AnomalyEkman Pumping Anomalyand Modeled ChlorophyllFront (0.2 mg/m3) AnomalyChai et al., 2003
7ROMS-Biology (50-km) Simulated Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3) Gulf of Alaska, averaged 15 May - 15 June ( )1998199920001997Jan.AprilAug.Dec.
8Coupled Bio-Physical Modeling NRL West Coast NCOM with SeaWIFS ChlorophyllNRL West Coast NCOM with Model ChlorophyllMonthly Sequence: June – August 2001
9Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) Simulation Annual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ModeledSST (oC)SatelliteSST (oC)9
10Surfare Chlorophyll Comparison in situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS 10Historical DataSeaWiFS
12An Individual Based Model (IBM) for Peruvian Anchovy Model the entire anchovy life history: spawning events, egg hatching, larva development, growth of juvenile and adultsBased on conservation of energy (bioenergetics):growth=consumption-respiration-egestion-excretionInput: temperature and four plankton groups from ROMS-CoSiNE; Output: anchovy growth (length and weight)3D circulation, offline simulation, output: location, length and weight
13Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO Strong El NinoModerate El NinoTemperaturediatommesozooplanktonRecruitmentmesozooplanktonRecruitmentdiatomThere is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm.
14Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy FisherySea Surface Temperature Anomaly10 x 106 MTAnnual Anchovy Catch
15GoMOOS - http://www.gomoos.org GoalTo provide data and data products that serve publicand private sector needs for:solving practical problemspredicting events, andfurther understanding natural systemsin the Gulf of Maine
17Modeled SurfaceChlorophyll, April 2002SeaWiFSApril 2002
18Comparing with Buoy B, E, I Black: buoy (night time values)Red: modelGreen: SeaWiFS
19Challenges and Recommendations Physical, nutrients, plankton, and higher levelsImproving physical models, data assimilationSpatial and temporal scales,Basin-regional-local; seasonal, interannual, and decadalSurface forcing (wind, heat, fresh water), boundariesCannot proceed by simply including more variablesSimplify the problem with focusing on target speciesIncorporating structured population and IBMConsidering uncertainties, probabilistic simulationsBetter communication