Presentation on theme: "Interest Rate Monitor March 31, 2013. 2 Brief Overview Interest rates drop, though it seems that 3- year yields are likely to stabilize Interest rates."— Presentation transcript:
Interest Rate Monitor March 31, 2013
2 Brief Overview Interest rates drop, though it seems that 3- year yields are likely to stabilize Interest rates drop, though it seems that 3- year yields are likely to stabilize International MENA Region Local Economy Interest Rate Forecasts Interest Rate Forecasts Amman Stock Exchange Amman Stock Exchange Local Debt Monitor Local Debt Monitor Prime Lending Rates Prime Lending Rates Markets overview New and analysis US: Consumer data support sturdy first quarter growth picture Eurozone: Tough week as Cyprus deal was hatched out UK: Service sector growth sustained OECD: Gloomy recovery for eurozone; monetary stimulus remains necessary Major Indices: Stocks climbed after difficult week Commodities and Currencies: Euro fluctuates slightly amid continued tensions regarding Cyprus Central Bank Meeting Calendar Interest Rate Forecast The Week Ahead Egypt: Budget deficit widens and borrowing costs increase GCC News Highlights GCC interbank rates Comparative MENA Markets Japan: Long way to meet 2% inflation target
4 US Treasury bond rates Americans saw bigger paychecks and stepped up their spending last month, despite higher taxes and gas prices, boosting the economy's growth outlook for the first quarter. However, high uncertainty and weak indicators in the eurozone, are still fueling demand for US treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down 7bp over the week, ending Thursday at 1.85%.
5 Consumer spending rises the most in five months. Consumer spending in the US climbed in February by the most in five months and confidence unexpectedly improved in March, showing job-market gains are helping Americans overcome tax increases and concern about federal budget cuts. Consumer spending, which account for about 70% of the economy, rose 0.7% after a 0.4% advance the prior month that was bigger than previously estimated, according to Commerce Department data Friday. The gain was the largest since September and prompted several economists to revise upward their growth estimates for the first quarter of The economy grew at a 0.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter, following a 3.1% gain in the previous three months, revised figures showed Thursday.. The fourth-quarter slowdown was due to the biggest slump in military spending since 1972 and slower inventory building. Consumer purchases rose at a 1.8% rate, revised down from a prior estimate of 2.1%.
6 Consumer sentiment advanced to a four-month high Record stock prices and rising home values combined with gains in wages are helping households repair finances left in shreds by the recession, making it easier to cope with a two percentage-point increase in the payroll tax. The Commerce Department’s report showed incomes increased 1.1%. The gain in February followed a 3.7% drop the prior month that reflected, in part, the higher payroll tax rate. Moreover, confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly increased in March from the prior month as Americans grew more optimistic about the outlook for the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index advanced to a four-month high of 78.6, exceeding estimates, from 77.6 in February. Americans are finding relief in lower gasoline prices, a rally in the stock market and housing’s recovery, helping alleviate concern about federal spending cuts. However, some near-term slowdown in consumption could still be in the card as tax rise plays its effect along with the spending cuts coming through the sequester.
7 Another round of strong US data A report this week showed home prices in 20 U.S. cities jumped 8.1% in the 12 months ended in January, the biggest year-over-year gain since June 2006,, indicating the US housing market strengthened at the beginning of the year. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of property values climbed 1% from December. Moreover, durable goods orders came out higher than expected. Demand for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in February, suggesting factory activity continued to expand at a moderate pace. Durable goods orders jumped 5.7% as demand for transportation equipment rebounded strongly, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The rise last month in durable goods orders, which range from toasters to aircraft, reversed January's 3.8% plunge. Excluding transportation, orders slipped 0.5% after increasing 2.9% in January. Though the report was mixed, it was in line with other data, including industrial production and the Institute for Supply Management's survey of national factory activity, that have shown a steady growth pace in manufacturing.
8 Tension remain amid Cypriot and Italian uncertainty Uncertainty remains as European officials have worked hard this week to stress that Cyprus’s bailout was a unique case - after a suggestion by Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem that the rescue would serve as a model for future crises rattled European financial markets. The yield on 10-year Spanish debt rose back above 5% while Italian borrowing costs climbed more than 20bp. Italy’s political gridlock in the wake of last month’s inconclusive election heightened the sense of uncertainty as efforts by Pier Luigi Bersani, the leader of the centre-left Democrats, to form a minority administration looked increasingly doomed to failure. Mr Bersani said on Thursday evening that his week of consultations had “not found a solution”. The tension regarding the eurozone also helped bolster demand for highly rated German 10- year bonds. The bund yield fell 10bp over the week to 1.28%, near a 7-month low.
9 Cyprus reaches bailout deal, avoiding financial collapse and possible exit from the eurozone After months of negotiations, Cyprus signed up Monday for a bailout from its eurozone partners, backed by the International Monetary Fund, worth nearly 60% of gross domestic product. In return, Cyprus committed to raise billions from big depositors to fund the winding down of Popular Bank and to recapitalize Bank of Cyprus. The EU wants Cyprus to shrink its banking industry to average size by 2018, which means shedding about half its assets. Deposits above €100,000 have been frozen at both big banks. They could be wiped out entirely at Popular, while at Bank of Cyprus about 40% will be converted into equity. All deposits of less than €100,000 are guaranteed. And the bailout does not affect smaller banks in Cyprus, which account for about 60% of the country's total deposits of €68 billion. Many of those deposits belong to foreign investors, in particular Russians, and Cypriot authorities fear an uncontrolled flight of capital that would cause the economy to implode.
10 Central Bank details losses at Bank of Cyprus with losses up to 60% On Saturday, Cyprus's central bank spelled out the financial damage to big deposit holders at Bank of Cyprus PCL, the country's biggest lender, saying they will lose almost 40% of their deposits as a result of a sweeping restructuring of the lender. In a statement Saturday, Cyprus's central bank said that 37.5% of all deposits over €100,000 will immediately be converted into a special class of shares at the lender as part of its recapitalization plan. Losses could grow even steeper in the months ahead. In a second raid on these accounts, depositors also could lose up to 22.5% more, depending on what experts determine is needed to prop up the bank's reserves. The experts will have 90 days to figure that out. The remaining 40% of big deposits at the Bank of Cyprus will be "temporarily frozen for liquidity reasons," but continue to accrue existing levels of interest plus another 10%, the central bank said. Thus, overall big depositors at Cyprus' largest bank may be forced to accept losses of up to 60%, far more than initially estimated under the European rescue package to save the country from bankruptcy. The toughening of the terms sends a clear signal that the bailout means the end of Cyprus as a hub for offshore finance and could accelerate economic decline on the island and bring steeper job losses.
11 Cyprus banks reopen with tough cash limits, though there was no panic Banks reopened to relative calm on Thursday for the first time in nearly two weeks after the imposition of the first capital controls the euro has seen since it was launched a decade ago. The use of controls breaks new ground for the EU, which is founded on the principle of free movement of capital and payments. The controls will initially be in force for seven days, according to a statement from the Finance Ministry, though they are likely to be reviewed on a daily basis and will be renewed as long as deemed necessary. Cyprus has banned the early withdrawal of funds on term deposits and transfers of more than €5,000 abroad, unless approved for trade purposes. Checks can be paid into accounts but not cashed, and a daily withdrawal limit of €300 euros has been set. Credit and debit card use abroad has been limited to €5,000 per month, and people leaving Cyprus can only take €3,000 in cash each trip. Data from the Central Bank of Cyprus published on Thursday showed that savers from other eurozone countries withdrew 18% of the cash they held in Cyprus, or €860m, in February but deposits from non-eurozone countries rose fractionally to €42.6bn. Overall, deposits were down almost €1bn to €67.5bn.
12 Cyprus faces steep job losses and a prolonged and deep recession Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said on Friday that the €10 billion bailout had contained the risk of national bankruptcy and would prevent it from leaving the euro. However, even if it manages to stabilize the banking system and relax controls, Cyprus faces years of hardship as the shrinking of one of its main service industries plunges the economy even deeper into recession. A sharp contraction in Cypriot GDP of around 10% to 20% is likely in with only a weak recovery thereafter. Development of natural gas deposits discovered offshore may ease the pain, but they're unlikely to begin generating significant revenue for several years.
13 Spain’s fiscal deficit larger than expected as the Central Bank sees deeper recession Spain’s economy will sink deeper into recession this year, the Bank of Spain said Tuesday, sending a stark message to the Government as it prepares to revise its own growth forecast. In its annual update of economic forecasts, the Central Bank said it saw Spain’s economy shrinking by 1.5% in 2013, following a 1.4% contraction last year as austerity continues to exacerbate the effects of a burst property bubble. The Central Bank’s new estimate is well below the official forecast for a 0.5% contraction in GDP, although the Government is widely expected to revise the 2013 figure downwards in April. Moreover, the Spanish government said its 2012 budget deficit will be bigger than first estimated after the European Union requested changes in how tax claims are computed. The budget shortfall excluding aid to the banking sector was 6.98% of GDP last year, more than the 6.74% predicted on Feb. 28, Deputy Budget Minister Marta Fernandez Curras told reporters in Madrid today. That compares with 8.96% in Spain is seeking an extension from other euro-region governments to reorder its public finances as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says output may shrink more in 2013 than initially predicted.
14 UK services sector sees growth The U.K.'s dominant services sector expanded in January at its fastest pace since August, but with other parts of the economy contracting sharply, that may not be enough to stave off Britain's third recession in five years. The U.K. index of services rose 0.3% on the month and 0.8% on the year, the Office for National Statistics said. That is the fastest monthly rate of growth since August. The ONS said the rise in services-sector output was driven by business services, finance and government services. Services account for more than three-quarters of U.K. gross domestic product and their performance in the first three months of 2013 will be crucial to determining whether the economy sinks back into recession. The U.K. economy shrank in the final three months of The first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product will be published April 25. Following falls in industrial production and construction in January, economists said the services sector would need to deliver a strong performance to reduce the risk of another downturn.
15 Japan still has a long way to meet 2% inflation target Japan's consumer prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in February highlighting how challenging it could be for the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target, which analysts say is unlikely at least over the next two years. Japan’s consumer prices fell 0.7% in February from a year earlier. Meanwhile, core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food but include energy, fell 0.3% in February from a year earlier - a fourth straight month of declines. The world's third biggest economy, has been battling deflation for nearly two decades amid poor growth and a strong currency. But expectations of a turnaround in consumer prices have been rising with the new governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Haruhiko Kuroda vowing to use all means available to achieve a target of 2% inflation in two years. This has led to wide speculation that the central bank would expand stimulus measures at its next policy-setting meeting on April 3-4 to try to spur price growth. On Thursday, BoJ governor repeated a pledge to consider extending the maturity of bond purchases. Japan’s gross debt to GDP ratio is expected to top 246% this year, according to IMF estimates.
16 OECD: Gloomy recovery for eurozone continues The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development said on Thursday, in its latest Interim Economic Assessment, that growth is struggling particularly in the eurozone, where the OECD expects France and Italy to have contracted in the first three months of Italy will continue to contract through to the end of June, the limit of the OECD forecasts. Stronger growth in Germany will help the three largest economies using the euro to expand as a group, but only slowly, with 0.4% annualized gross domestic product growth in the first quarter and 1.2% in the second, the OECD said. U.K. growth will be similarly weak at 0.3% and 1.3% over same period. The U.S., by contrast, will grow 3.5% and 2% in the first and second quarters, and Japan 3.2% and 2.2%, according to the forecasts. Emerging economies are even further ahead— annualized growth in China will be well above 8% throughout the first half of 2013, the OECD said.
17 OECD: Monetary stimulus remains necessary The OECD states that downside risks remains, though less pronounced that 6 months ago. These include the euro area recession and financial system fragility and fiscal deadlock in the U.S. Moreover, the OECD notes that financial markets are out-pacing real activity, which has been held back by weak business and consumer confidence, and highlights the risk that asset prices may rise beyond levels justified by fundamentals. Nevertheless, central banks should maintain or strengthen expansionary monetary policy to support their economies, but need to vary across countries. Low inflation in most major economies means exceptional measures can and should remain in place, or be pursued further, it said.
18 Stocks climbed after difficult week S&P 500 managed to set a fresh record closing high
19 Euro had a tough week amid Cypriot and Italian tensions
20 Major Interest Rate Forecasts
21 The Week Ahead,,,
22 Central Bank Meetings Calendar Expected Rate Decision Current Rate MonthCentral Bank 0.25% May 1US Federal Reserve (FOMC) 0.75% April 4European Central Bank (ECB) 0.50% April 4Bank of England (BoE) 0.10% April 3Bank of Japan (BOJ) 0.00% June 20Swiss National Bank (SNB) 1.00% April 17Bank of Canada (BOC) 3.00% April 3Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2.50% April 23Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
24 Egypt’s Budget Deficit Widens According to a report released by the Egyptian Ministry of Finance, Egypt’s national budget deficit soared to LE146.5 billion ($21.5 billion) from July 2012 to February 2013, a rise that is equivalent to 8.2% of the country’s GDP. The same period last year saw a the deficit widen to LE94.7 billion. However, foreign debt increased by 15.2%, reaching a record $38.8 billion by the end of December 2012, the highest increase since March Previously, the country sought to bridge the budget deficit by borrowing from international financial institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank. However, since they were not able to reach an agreement, latest reports signal that Egypt is calling in diplomatic favors (especially from Arab countries) or seek easy payment terms from suppliers who hope for future advantage in return as it has hit a breaking point in its ability to pay for imports of oil, wheat and other basic commodities. Source: Egypt’s Ministry of Finance
25 Egypt’s Domestic Borrowing Costs Surge Egypt has not received a crude oil cargo from open market suppliers since January and, with money tight, the state grain buyer has not purchased wheat since February. The credit crisis is now so acute that Egypt can no longer buy crude in the market, leaving its oil minister scrambling to cut diplomatic deals with Libya, Qatar and Iraq, to add to an existing oil lifeline from Kuwait. As an initial plan, Libya plans to supply 1 million barrels of oil a month to Egypt on credit, Libya's deputy oil minister said Wednesday, as a way to resolve Egypt’s economic crisis. This is part of an aid lifeline that includes a $2 billion cash deposit. Due to the Egyptian government being low on funds, Egypt’s local-currency borrowing costs surged the most in three months. Average yields on six-month and one-year treasury bills jumped 78bp at the last auction, to reach 13.81% and 14.46% respectively. Moody’s cut deposit ratings of Egypt’s three biggest banks to Caa1, citing that the government has “reduced capacity to support” them. National Bank of Egypt SAE, Banque Misr SAE and Banque Du Caire SAE hold government securities equal to 800% to 900% of their Tier 1 Capital, Moody’s estimates show. Source: Bloomberg
26 GCC Economic News Highlights Mideast Banks Record Single Digit Revenue Growth In 2012: According to a new study by The Boston Consulting Gro-up (BCG), the banking industry in the Middle East settled at single digit revenue growth in 2012 with a 6.9% increase. The increase in profits was slightly higher at 8.1%, stemming largely from extraordinary income sources. While banks in Qatar grew revenues by 12% and banks in Saudi Arabia and Oman achieved high single digit growth rates, banks in the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain achieved a revenue growth rate of 5%or below. Kuwait Surplus Soars on High Oil Price: Kuwait posted a record provisional budget surplus of 17.2 billion dinars ($60.2 billion) in the first 10 months of the fiscal year on high oil price, government data showed Wednesday. The surplus up to the end of January was achieved on the back of a huge income of KWD27 billion and a low spending of KWD9.8 billion. UAE Central Bank agrees on mortgage caps: The United Arab Emirates central bank has given initial approval to a proposal by the country’s commercial banks on setting limits for residential mortgage loans, Al Khaleej newspaper quoted an unnamed banking source as saying on Thursday. Last month, the local banking association proposed that lending for first homes be capped at 80% of the home’s value for UAE nationals and 75% for expatriates. This is expected to slowdown the rapid growth in the real estate market in the UAE.
27 GCC Economic News Highlights UAE economy to grow 3.3% in 2013: High public spending due to strong oil prices will ally with the UAE s position as a safe haven for investments to boost the country s economy by 3.3% in 2013 despite lower crude output, a key Saudi bank has said. The UAE’s real GDP rose by around 9.4% in 2011 and 2.4% in 2012 and growth is likely to remain relatively high this year while its fiscal system will continue to record large surpluses. Saudi nonoil sector growth to remain above 7% in 2013: Saudi Arabia's real GDP growth is expected to rise by 3% in real terms, driven by the vibrant nonoil sector that will offset the decline in oil production. Growth in the nonoil sector will remain above the 7% threshold in The Kingdom's real nonoil GDP in 2012 grew by around 7.2 percent, which is higher than the 10-year average of 4.7 percent, largely driven by the stellar performance of the nonoil private sector. The main drivers of private sector growth were the construction, manufacturing, and the retail sectors, which posted 10.3 percent, 8.3 percent and 8.3 percent annual growth, respectively. Construction and manufacturing will remain the key beneficiaries in 2013, growing at 10.5% and 8.5%, respectively.
28 GCC new highlights Qatar economy grew 6.2% in 2012, 6.6% in last quarter Qatar’s rate of economic growth more than halved last year to 6.2 percent as a surge in global oil prices abated, but its construction, finance and manufacturing sectors expanded by a around a third and should grow again this year. Output in mining and quarrying, which includes oil and gas and accounts for almost half of the Arab Gulf state’s GDP, rose only 1.7 percent last year following a surge in oil prices which drove the economy overall to 13 percent growth in 2011, the country’s statistics authority said. But the construction and finance sectors, which each account for more than a tenth of GDP, both grew by 34 percent, while manufacturing expanded by 28 percent. Quarterly growth in the fourth quarter slowed to 0.1 percent from the 1.7 percent rise in the third quarter, the statistics authority said, but was still 6.6 percent year-on-year.
29 GCC Interbank Rates
30 Comparative MENA Markets For the period 24/03 – 28/03
32 Local interest rates forecasts and major developments Our interest rate forecast for 2 years government bonds was revised lower mainly due to higher JD liquidity in the market, and expectations of receiving the second tranche of the IMF loan in April. Moreover, the US guarantee for Jordan’s Eurobonds will make it more likely that the government of Jordan will redeem part of its domestic debt through No benchmark interest rates hikes are expected in 2013.
33 3-year yields on the path of stabilization During this month, the yield on 3- year government bonds fell by 0.83% to 7.77% from 8.60%, supported by high coverage ratio above 2. The drop in 3-year government bond yields and increasing coverage ratios signals more room for interest rates to go down. However, in the last auction coverage ratio started to go down slightly which might indicate that 3-year yields will stabilize in the short-term at current rates.
34 Amman Stock Exchange For the period 24/03 – 28/03 ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at (2088.9) points, compared to (2089.9) points for the last week, posting a decrease of 0.05%. The total trading volume during the week reached JD(92.2) million compared to JD(136.1) million during the last week. Trading a total of (90.4) million shares through (35,397) transactions The shares of (176) companies were traded, the shares prices of (70) companies rose, and the shares prices of (68) declined. Top 5 losers for the last week Stock % chg International Ceramic Industries (13.64%) Universal Chemical Industries (12.63%) Sura Development & Investment Plc (10.00%) Al-manara Insurance Plc.co. (9.52%) Jordan Investment & Tourism Transport(alfa) (9.00%) Top 5 gainers for the last week Stock % chg Transport& Investment Barter Company 26.00% Northern Cement Co % Philadelphia Pharmaceeuticals 24.74% Ad-dulayl Industrial Park & Real Estate Company P.l.c 24.39% Shira Real Estate Development & Investments 22.86%
35 Local Debt Monitor Latest T-Bills As March 31, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD(2,348) million. Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date3 months T-Bills 2.898%5014/03/201214/12/201129/ %5012/03/201212/12/201128/2011 Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date6 months T-Bills 3.788%5014/08/201214/02/201202/ %5023/01/ / %5008/06/201208/12/201127/2011 Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date9 months T-Bills 4.285%7504/12/201204/03/201205/ %7529/11/201229/02/201204/ %7522/11/201222/02/201203/2012 Coupon (%)Size - MillionMaturity DateIssue Date1 year T-Bills 6.750%7026/02/201426/02/201203/ %5014/02/201414/02/201202/ %7027/01/201427/01/201201/ %6024/12/201324/12/201222/2012
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