1. 1 Social Impact of Out-migration in Anhui Province: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back? Sucheta Mazumdar, Duke University Danan Gu, Duke University

2. 2 Outline I.Out-migration and Rural China II.Impact on Agriculture III.Impact on Women IV.Impact on Elderly V.Case Study: Anhui Province VI.Summary

3. 3 I. Out-migration and Rural China One Step Forward No other country has made the transition so fast as China from predominantly rural workforce (71 % in 1978) to 50 % of work force in 2000. This transition has been seen as very much a success story. Crucial to the transition, initially through 1980s jobs were created through Township Village Enterprises ( TVE) (approx 125 million). The TVE allowed for commuting and continued rural location of workers. There was a drop in overall poverty levels in China when compared to 1978. Increase of rural income (almost 55 percent) from non-farm sources Migration of surplus rural labor to urban centers and remittances sent to rural China were also very much part of the story of poverty reduction and employment. It was actively encouraged by local officials as a route to poverty reduction

4. 4 But, TVE growth and route to rural mobility has dropped markedly by the second half of 1990s. New jobs are located in urban centers, in manufacturing, service sector and construction that involves out- migration from the rural sector. The impact on rural China of this rapid transition, especially on married women and the elderly, the two groups most likely to continue living in the countryside, has not been extensively studied. Added to this, as explored in the conclusion, has been the urban bias of state policies that have increased the rural-urban divide in China today. I. Out-migration and Rural China

5. 5 There were 34 million out-migrants in 1990, and females were 44%. In 2000, there were 93million according to 1990 criterion, and females were 52%; Sichuan, Anhui, and Hunan are the three biggest out-migration provinces, accounting for 16.4%, 10.2%, and 10.2% of total inter-provincial temporary migration, respectively; whereas Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai occupy the three biggest im-migration provinces, accounting for 35.5%, 8.7%, and 7.4%, respectively.

6. 6 Figure 1 Three largest out-migration provinces

7. 7 Figure 2 Three largest immigration provinces

8. 8 Out-migrants has been dramatically increased since 1990. Female out-migrants are younger than male out- migrants. Compared with those of males, increase rates of intra- and inter-provincial migration for females are higher from 1990 to 2000. I. Out-migration and Rural China

9. 9 Figure 3 Mean age of rural migrants in 1990 (upper) and 2000 (Lower), China

10. 10 Figure 4 Intra-provincial and inter-provincial rural out-migration in 1990 and 2000, China

11. 11 I. Out-migration and Rural China. Who is leaving: 15 % of total rural labor force China have left their villages of origin, 88.5 are between the ages of 18-40. While proportion of female to male migrants has risen over the last 10 years, male migration outnumbers female in age groups after the age of 25. In 8 village studies (which included 3 case study villages in Anhui) it was found that of the total number of migrants 64.3 % was male.

12. 12 Who is leaving: Both males and females with more years of schooling are tend to migrate out. Single men and women are more like to have experience of out- migration. This feature has been enhanced in 2000 compared with that of 1990. For male out-migrants, the predominant motive for migration is economic, especially for inter-provincial migrants. For female out- migrants, the motives for migration due to marriage and/or family share quite a few percentage points, especially for intra-county migrants. But such percentages have declined since 1990s, especially among inter- provincial migrants, and economic motive has increased. I. Out-migration and Rural China

13. 13 Figure 5 Comparison of education of non-migrants, intra-provincial out-migrants, and inter- provincial out-migrants, Rural China

14. 14 Figure 6 Comparison of marital status of non-migrants, intra-provincial out-migrants, and inter-provincial out-migrants, Rural China

15. 15 Figure 7 Comparison of motivation of non-migrants, intra-provincial out-migrants, and inter-provincial out-migrants, Rural China

16. 16 But while the focus of much of the current research is on out-migration: duration spent away is a highly variable factor. The vast majority of migrants, especially female, return to their counties of origin after a few years. Percentage of families migrating away out of the countryside is relatively small. Therefore, out-migration is linked to the long-term aspect of development of rural China. I. Out-migration and Rural China

17. 17 II. Impact on Agriculture Feminization of Chinese Agriculture The share of women in the agricultural labor force in China has been growing steadily. While in 1982 women constituted 46.2 percent of the agricultural labor force, in 1987 this rose to 50%, 1994: 50-60% and now in some parts of commodity grain production areas the figure is as high as 90%. Labor and Agriculture: Remittance, Consumption and Inflation Underdevelopment in the Countryside? Better educated leave; Effect of shifting from labor intensive crops to “easier” ones, and leaving land fallow. Disdain for Agriculture ; Falling output and food security

18. 18 III. Impact on Women Property Rights Unequal access to village resources Unequal access to credit Lower levels of education and illiteracy among women Lower access of women to science and technology inputs Gender Relations, impact on mental health

19. 19 IV. Impact on Elderly Out-migration of sons, low remittances and poverty No retirement Why Pensions and Old Age Insurance Projects are unlikely to work ( example of Britain). Reintroduction of Childcare responsibilities Taking care of grandchildren classified as “unproductive labor” and low social status Physical Exhaustion Issues for both Women and Elderly

20. 20 V. Case Study—Anhui Province 1.Why Focus on Anhui? 1)Anhui is one of earliest provinces from which women began to migrate in 1980s. 2)Nationally, Anhui is one of the three largest out-migration provinces sharing 10.2% of total inter-provincial temporary migration in China in 2000. 3)The per capita income for rural Anhui population was 2585 yuan ($320) in 2000, lower than that for all rural Chinese, which was 3,146 yuan ($400); whereas the per capita income from dadong (getting paid work through temporary migration) for rural Anhui people was 312 yuan (40$), higher than that for all rural Chinese, which was 240 yuan($30) (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2002 ). 4)Anhui women migrate for shorter period of time, returning home often between episodes (more episodic), which enable researchers to gather data on out-migration.

21. 21 Figure 8 Five largest destination province for Anhui out-migrants

22. 22 2.Out-migration in Anhui For inter-provincial migrants from rural Anhui, three predominated destinations are Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, accounting 70%. Guangdong and Beijing ranks fourth and fifth preference among rural Anhui migrants, accounting about 15%. More females involves in intra-provincial migration. There are 3.3 million intra-provincial out-migrants (55% are females) and 4.3 million inter-provincial out-migrants in 2000 (45% are females). The corresponding % of females for China are 50% and 47%. V. Case Study—Anhui Province

23. 23 3.Out-migration in Anhui Similar pattern as all China was observed with some difference. Out-migrants from Anhui were older than their counterparts in China. Less educated persons account for a higher percentage among out- migrants in Anhui than those of all China. Married and divorced/widowed persons in Anhui have a higher propensity to go out compared with those of all China. Social network, family, and marriage factors play more roles on out- migration in Anhui than in China. V. Case Study—Anhui Province

24. 24 Figure 9 Ratio of mean age of rural out-migrants of Anhui VS China after adjusting mean age of non-migrants

25. 25 Figure 10 Ratio of selected variables of rural out-migrants Anhui VS China after adjusting the corresponding distributions of non-migrants

26. 26 Figure 11 Ratio of % of motive of rural out-migration of Anhui VS China

27. 27 Case Study data description: Data: survey on impact of out-migration on rural women (Sichuan and Anhui) --conducted by Institute of Population Research of Peking Univ., and China Population Development Research Center in 2000. 12 villages and 1565 women aged 15 +. Two level modeling

28. 28 Figure 12 Per Capita net income for Rural China, Rural Anhui, and 12 villages in the Survey Sources: China Statistics Abstract 2003

29. 29 Woman’s socio-demographic Characteristics (Age, education, living arrangement, Household size) Husband’s Characteristics (Age, education, Ever out for a month or more) Family Economic status (per capita income higher than average) Farming is the most difficult issue when husband’s out (Yes, No) Out-migration (out for a month or more Yes, No) Community Indicators (Distance to bus stat., village per capita income, population density, % of household with dagong) Figure 13 Framework of the effects of rural females out-migration on family income and agriculture in the case of Anhui province

30. 30 Out-migrants YesNo YesNo Farming is the most difficult issue Total cases 656 (43%) 868 (57%) No74.862.1 Yes 25.237.9 Age No. of children <2513.415.76 0-165.4047.93 25-2937.8027.07 2+34.6052.07 30-3437.3547.24Household size 35+ 11.4319.93 21.831.50 Education 343.2937.67 Illiteracy 43.7358.40 432.4742.51 Primary school 35.7828.27 513.8712.79 Secondary school or above 20.4913.33 6+ 8.545.53 Living with parents/ parents in-lawHusband even out No 73.4882.49 No 21.3737.11 Yes 26.5217.51 Yes 78.6362.89 Table 1 Distribution of selected variables for the sampled women (%)

31. 31 Table 2 Effect of female out-migration on family income Fixed EffectCoefficientsS.E.P Intercept 0.01781.35610.9899 Women’s characteristics Out-migration before 1999 (Yes/No) 0.50770.14400.0004 Age 25-29/15-24 -0.22420.27270.4110 30-34/15-24 -0.22290.32290.4902 35+/15-24 -0.01890.37470.9597 Education Secondary school/(primary) 0.49280.15200.0012 High school or more/(primary) 1.09770.2160<.0001 Characteristics of Husband & Family Husband’s age 30-34/20-29 -0.01450.21470.9462 35+/20-29 -0.35770.27080.1868 Husband’s out-migration (Yes/No) 0.49010.14320.0006 Husband’s education Secondary school/(primary) 0.36900.21500.0863 High school or more/(primary) 1.13780.2111<.0001 Family size -0.89460.1544<.0001 Living with parents/parents-in-law (Yes/No) 0.45470.30410.1350 Number of children co-residence ( 2+/0-1) -0.12780.21660.5554 Village factors Distance to bus station (2+ km / 0-1) -0.21310.45640.6406 Village population density (1500+/<1500) -0.05330.42150.8994 Households with out-migrants (Most/some) 0.42890.43400.3233 Village per capita income 0.00180.00070.0186

32. 32 Table 3 Three most important investment of earned money from Dadong Invest to% Daily consumption86.6 Children's education30.7 Build house27.8 Wedding26.5 Saving26.4 Buy electrical appliance20.4 Input in agriculture19.5 Medical cost 9.0

33. 33 Fixed EffectCoefficientsS.E.P Intercept -1.07101.34150.4509 Women’s characteristics Ever out-migration (Yes/No) -0.61040.1559 <.0001 Age 25-29/15-24 0.04740.33420.8872 30-34/15-24 -0.01580.38330.9671 35+/15-24 -0.19970.43970.6497 Education Secondary school/(primary) 0.36820.17430.0349 High school or more/(primary) -0.13150.24670.5942 Characteristics of Husband & Family Husband’s age 30-34/20-29 0.44990.24100.0622 35+/20-29 0.36090.30470.2365 Husband’s education Secondary school/(primary) 0.04370.25390.8635 High school or more/(primary) -0.03730.24870.8809 Family size 0.09220.17490.5981 Living with parents/parents-in-law (Yes/No) -0.44410.34280.1955 Number of children co-residence ( 2+/0-1) 0.37020.25120.1408 Family per capita income (Higher than average/No) 0.32040.17010.0599 Village factors Distance to bus station (2+ km / 0-1) -0.28540.43110.5080 Village population density (1500+/<1500) 0.05210.39880.8962 Households with out-migrants (Most/some) 0.03110.41190.9399 Village per capita income -0.00030.00070.7110 Table 4 Effect of female out-migration on agriculture production

34. 34 YesNo No problem 13.9314.63 Ask others for help 52.1458.78 Labor exchange 21.4312.50 Hire workers 3.936.38 Do nothing 2.142.39 Others 6.435.32 Table 5 What out-migrants do when they face farming difficulty

35. 35 Summary and Conclusion Two Steps Back? Enhanced Rural Urban divide in 2000. For rural China to participate in economic growth benefits, 12-15 million new non-farm jobs need to be created every year (Johnson, 2002). Unsustainable levels of urbanization? Limits to labor export? Post-Olympic 2008 end of construction boom and impact on rural China Models of Sustainable Agriculture