Presentation on theme: "1 The Time Value of Money Timothy R. Mayes, Ph.D. FIN 3300: Chapter 5."— Presentation transcript:
1 The Time Value of Money Timothy R. Mayes, Ph.D. FIN 3300: Chapter 5
2 What is Time Value? v We say that money has a time value because that money can be invested with the expectation of earning a positive rate of return v In other words, “a dollar received today is worth more than a dollar to be received tomorrow” v That is because today’s dollar can be invested so that we have more than one dollar tomorrow
3 The Terminology of Time Value v Present Value - An amount of money today, or the current value of a future cash flow v Future Value - An amount of money at some future time period v Period - A length of time (often a year, but can be a month, week, day, hour, etc.) v Interest Rate - The compensation paid to a lender (or saver) for the use of funds expressed as a percentage for a period (normally expressed as an annual rate)
4 Abbreviations v PV - Present value v FV - Future value v Pmt - Per period payment amount v N - Either the total number of cash flows or the number of a specific period v i - The interest rate per period
5 Timelines 012345 PVFV Today vA timeline is a graphical device used to clarify the timing of the cash flows for an investment vEach tick represents one time period
6 Calculating the Future Value v Suppose that you have an extra $100 today that you wish to invest for one year. If you can earn 10% per year on your investment, how much will you have in one year? 012345 -100?
7 Calculating the Future Value (cont.) v Suppose that at the end of year 1 you decide to extend the investment for a second year. How much will you have accumulated at the end of year 2? 012345 -110?
8 Generalizing the Future Value v Recognizing the pattern that is developing, we can generalize the future value calculations as follows: v If you extended the investment for a third year, you would have:
9 Compound Interest v Note from the example that the future value is increasing at an increasing rate v In other words, the amount of interest earned each year is increasing Year 1: $10 Year 2: $11 Year 3: $12.10 v The reason for the increase is that each year you are earning interest on the interest that was earned in previous years in addition to the interest on the original principle amount
11 The Magic of Compounding v On Nov. 25, 1626 Peter Minuit, a Dutchman, reportedly purchased Manhattan from the Indians for $24 worth of beads and other trinkets. Was this a good deal for the Indians? v This happened about 371 years ago, so if they could earn 5% per year they would now (in 1997) have: v If they could have earned 10% per year, they would now have: That’s about 54,563 Trillion dollars!
12 The Magic of Compounding (cont.) v The Wall Street Journal (17 Jan. 92) says that all of New York city real estate is worth about $324 billion. Of this amount, Manhattan is about 30%, which is $97.2 billion v At 10%, this is $54,562 trillion! Our U.S. GNP is only around $6 trillion per year. So this amount represents about 9,094 years worth of the total economic output of the USA! v At 5% it seems the Indians got a bad deal, but if they earned 10% per year, it was the Dutch that got the raw deal v Not only that, but it turns out that the Indians really had no claim on Manhattan (then called Manahatta). They lived on Long Island! v As a final insult, the British arrived in the 1660’s and unceremoniously tossed out the Dutch settlers.
13 Calculating the Present Value v So far, we have seen how to calculate the future value of an investment v But we can turn this around to find the amount that needs to be invested to achieve some desired future value:
14 Present Value: An Example v Suppose that your five -year old daughter has just announced her desire to attend college. After some research, you determine that you will need about $100,000 on her 18 th birthday to pay for four years of college. If you can earn 8% per year on your investments, how much do you need to invest today to achieve your goal?
15 Annuities v An annuity is a series of nominally equal payments equally spaced in time v Annuities are very common: Rent Mortgage payments Car payment Pension income v The timeline shows an example of a 5-year, $100 annuity 012345 100
16 The Principle of Value Additivity v How do we find the value (PV or FV) of an annuity? v First, you must understand the principle of value additivity: The value of any stream of cash flows is equal to the sum of the values of the components v In other words, if we can move the cash flows to the same time period we can simply add them all together to get the total value
17 Present Value of an Annuity v We can use the principle of value additivity to find the present value of an annuity, by simply summing the present values of each of the components:
18 Present Value of an Annuity (cont.) v Using the example, and assuming a discount rate of 10% per year, we find that the present value is: 012345 100 62.09 68.30 75.13 82.64 90.91 379.08
19 Present Value of an Annuity (cont.) v Actually, there is no need to take the present value of each cash flow separately v We can use a closed-form of the PV A equation instead:
20 Present Value of an Annuity (cont.) v We can use this equation to find the present value of our example annuity as follows: v This equation works for all regular annuities, regardless of the number of payments
21 The Future Value of an Annuity v We can also use the principle of value additivity to find the future value of an annuity, by simply summing the future values of each of the components:
22 The Future Value of an Annuity (cont.) v Using the example, and assuming a discount rate of 10% per year, we find that the future value is: 100 012345 146.41 133.10 121.00 110.00 } = 610.51 at year 5
23 The Future Value of an Annuity (cont.) v Just as we did for the PV A equation, we could instead use a closed-form of the FV A equation: v This equation works for all regular annuities, regardless of the number of payments
24 The Future Value of an Annuity (cont.) v We can use this equation to find the future value of the example annuity:
25 Annuities Due v Thus far, the annuities that we have looked at begin their payments at the end of period 1; these are referred to as regular annuities v A annuity due is the same as a regular annuity, except that its cash flows occur at the beginning of the period rather than at the end 012345 100 5-period Annuity Due 5-period Regular Annuity
26 Present Value of an Annuity Due v We can find the present value of an annuity due in the same way as we did for a regular annuity, with one exception v Note from the timeline that, if we ignore the first cash flow, the annuity due looks just like a four-period regular annuity v Therefore, we can value an annuity due with:
27 Present Value of an Annuity Due (cont.) v Therefore, the present value of our example annuity due is: v Note that this is higher than the PV of the, otherwise equivalent, regular annuity
28 Future Value of an Annuity Due v To calculate the FV of an annuity due, we can treat it as regular annuity, and then take it one more period forward: 012345 Pmt
29 Future Value of an Annuity Due (cont.) v The future value of our example annuity is: v Note that this is higher than the future value of the, otherwise equivalent, regular annuity
30 Deferred Annuities v A deferred annuity is the same as any other annuity, except that its payments do not begin until some later period v The timeline shows a five-period deferred annuity 012345 100 67
31 PV of a Deferred Annuity v We can find the present value of a deferred annuity in the same way as any other annuity, with an extra step required v Before we can do this however, there is an important rule to understand: When using the PV A equation, the resulting PV is always one period before the first payment occurs
32 PV of a Deferred Annuity (cont.) v To find the PV of a deferred annuity, we first find use the PV A equation, and then discount that result back to period 0 v Here we are using a 10% discount rate 012345 00100 67 PV 2 = 379.08 PV 0 = 313.29
33 PV of a Deferred Annuity (cont.) Step 1: Step 2:
34 FV of a Deferred Annuity v The future value of a deferred annuity is calculated in exactly the same way as any other annuity v There are no extra steps at all
35 Uneven Cash Flows v Very often an investment offers a stream of cash flows which are not either a lump sum or an annuity v We can find the present or future value of such a stream by using the principle of value additivity
36 Uneven Cash Flows: An Example (1) v Assume that an investment offers the following cash flows. If your required return is 7%, what is the maximum price that you would pay for this investment? 012345 100200300
37 Uneven Cash Flows: An Example (2) v Suppose that you were to deposit the following amounts in an account paying 5% per year. What would the balance of the account be at the end of the third year? 012345 300500700
38 Non-annual Compounding v So far we have assumed that the time period is equal to a year v However, there is no reason that a time period can’t be any other length of time v We could assume that interest is earned semi- annually, quarterly, monthly, daily, or any other length of time v The only change that must be made is to make sure that the rate of interest is adjusted to the period length
39 Non-annual Compounding (cont.) v Suppose that you have $1,000 available for investment. After investigating the local banks, you have compiled the following table for comparison. In which bank should you deposit your funds?
40 Non-annual Compounding (cont.) v To solve this problem, you need to determine which bank will pay you the most interest v In other words, at which bank will you have the highest future value? v To find out, let’s change our basic FV equation slightly: In this version of the equation ‘m’ is the number of compounding periods per year
41 Non-annual Compounding (cont.) v We can find the FV for each bank as follows: First National Bank: Second National Bank: Third National Bank: Obviously, you should choose the Third National Bank
42 Continuous Compounding v There is no reason why we need to stop increasing the compounding frequency at daily v We could compound every hour, minute, or second v We can also compound every instant (i.e., continuously): v Here, F is the future value, P is the present value, r is the annual rate of interest, t is the total number of years, and e is a constant equal to about 2.718
43 Continuous Compounding (cont.) v Suppose that the Fourth National Bank is offering to pay 10% per year compounded continuously. What is the future value of your $1,000 investment? v This is even better than daily compounding v The basic rule of compounding is: The more frequently interest is compounded, the higher the future value
44 Continuous Compounding (cont.) v Suppose that the Fourth National Bank is offering to pay 10% per year compounded continuously. If you plan to leave the money in the account for 5 years, what is the future value of your $1,000 investment?