1. Washington County HRA February 3, 2014 County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc.

2. Maxfield Research Inc. Housing Study  Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market – Document housing needs – Guide HRA strategic planning – Assist with funding applications – Define relationship between housing and economic development 2

3. Study Objectives – Examine existing housing market and demographic trends – Research existing and projected economic and job sector data – Identify future senior and workforce housing demand to 2030 – Identify senior housing trends – Develop affordable housing production scenarios

4. Submarket Map  10 submarkets  East vs. West  Cottage Grove submarket includes – Cottage Grove – Grey Cloud Island – St. Paul Park – Newport

5. Met Council Projections Cottage Grove Submarket Population Projections Forecast Models Met Council 2030 2040 Maxfield 2030 Cottage Grove Submarket68,97053,65059,000  Met Council current “draft” projection for 2040 is lower than 2030 projection  Maxfield in middle of two Met Council projections 2010 Census Cottage Grove Submarket43,592 Cottage Grove Submarket 2010 Census Population

6. Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics  Steady growth  Decline in household size also evident

7. Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics 1980-2010 No. % 2010-2030 No. % Cottage Grove Submarket16,060+58%15,408+35% County124,565+110%83,934+35% Cottage Grove and County Population Change 1980-2010 and 2010-2030

8. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Jobs  9,368 total jobs – 12.7% of County  Education & Health Services largest – 25% of total  Manufacturing; Education & Health Services; Other Services high concentration  Between 2011-12 – Number employees drop 170; 1.8% (County + 0.9%) – Number of businesses + 20

9. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Wages Average Weekly Wages 2012 Wage 2011-12 Change Cottage Grove.$742+0.1% County$766+1.7% Metro$1,076+3.0%  Low wages compared to County and Metro

10. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Employment Cottage Grove and County Employment Change No.% 1990-2012 Cottage Grove2,135+29% County35,072+90% 2010-2020 Cottage Grove1,386+14% County 13,798+19%

11. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing General Occupancy Rental Inventory PropertiesUnits Market Rate9589 Affordable4344 Total131,277 Average Rent (July 2013) Cottage Grove Washington County 1 BR$745$868 2 BR$867$1,071 3 BR$1,151$1,482

12. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing Senior Housing Inventory PropertiesUnits Active Adult14 Congregate186 Assisted Living262 Memory Care262 Affordable3150 Total*5364 * Some properties offer multiples service levels

13. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  Greatest demand for Single Family through 2030  Close to jobs in downtowns and Woodbury

14. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand 2013-2020 General Occupancy Demand – Single family 55% – Multifamily 30% – Rental 16%

15. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  Greatest demand for Single Family Move Up through 2030  No new rental development since Hinton Heights in 1993

16. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  2020 point in time demand for senior housing

17. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  2030 point in time demand for senior housing includes 2020 demand  Norris Square built in 2010  Additional units needed to meet future demand as population ages