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Washington County HRA February 3, 2014 County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc.

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Presentation on theme: "Washington County HRA February 3, 2014 County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc."— Presentation transcript:

1 Washington County HRA February 3, 2014 County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc.

2 Maxfield Research Inc. Housing Study  Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market – Document housing needs – Guide HRA strategic planning – Assist with funding applications – Define relationship between housing and economic development 2

3 Study Objectives – Examine existing housing market and demographic trends – Research existing and projected economic and job sector data – Identify future senior and workforce housing demand to 2030 – Identify senior housing trends – Develop affordable housing production scenarios

4 Submarket Map  10 submarkets  East vs. West  Cottage Grove submarket includes – Cottage Grove – Grey Cloud Island – St. Paul Park – Newport

5 Met Council Projections Cottage Grove Submarket Population Projections Forecast Models Met Council Maxfield 2030 Cottage Grove Submarket68,97053,65059,000  Met Council current “draft” projection for 2040 is lower than 2030 projection  Maxfield in middle of two Met Council projections 2010 Census Cottage Grove Submarket43,592 Cottage Grove Submarket 2010 Census Population

6 Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics  Steady growth  Decline in household size also evident

7 Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics No. % No. % Cottage Grove Submarket16,060+58%15,408+35% County124, %83,934+35% Cottage Grove and County Population Change and

8 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Jobs  9,368 total jobs – 12.7% of County  Education & Health Services largest – 25% of total  Manufacturing; Education & Health Services; Other Services high concentration  Between – Number employees drop 170; 1.8% (County + 0.9%) – Number of businesses + 20

9 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Wages Average Weekly Wages 2012 Wage Change Cottage Grove.$ % County$ % Metro$1, %  Low wages compared to County and Metro

10 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Employment Cottage Grove and County Employment Change No.% Cottage Grove2,135+29% County35,072+90% Cottage Grove1,386+14% County 13,798+19%

11 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing General Occupancy Rental Inventory PropertiesUnits Market Rate9589 Affordable4344 Total131,277 Average Rent (July 2013) Cottage Grove Washington County 1 BR$745$868 2 BR$867$1,071 3 BR$1,151$1,482

12 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing Senior Housing Inventory PropertiesUnits Active Adult14 Congregate186 Assisted Living262 Memory Care262 Affordable3150 Total*5364 * Some properties offer multiples service levels

13 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  Greatest demand for Single Family through 2030  Close to jobs in downtowns and Woodbury

14 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand General Occupancy Demand – Single family 55% – Multifamily 30% – Rental 16%

15 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  Greatest demand for Single Family Move Up through 2030  No new rental development since Hinton Heights in 1993

16 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  2020 point in time demand for senior housing

17 Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand  2030 point in time demand for senior housing includes 2020 demand  Norris Square built in 2010  Additional units needed to meet future demand as population ages


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