1. Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany Dr. Jörg Dräger Harvard University, July 26 th, 2012

2. The „PISA shock“ of 2001 made education an issue of national interest and triggered major policy changes Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 2 PISA shock 2001 PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces New transparency and empiricism: competence standards and accountability Germany below average in all skills dimensions Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills Impressive improve- ments But also: reasonable fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness Public and poli- tical attention

3. PISA ended a period of complacency and self-confidence in Germany Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Seite 3 PISA shock 2001 PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces New transparency and empiricism: competence standards and accountability Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills Impressive improve- ments But also: reasonable fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness Germany below average in all skills dimensions tical attention Public and poli-

4. Ideology instead of accountability: German educational policy has a difficult history with transparency Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 4 Is the new age of trans- parency really sustainable? Is the new age of trans- parency really sustainable? 1960 - 1970 1960 - 1970 - 2000 1970 - 2000 - 2010/12 2000 - 2010/12 Two international comparative studies on student achievements show very problematic results for Germany. As a reaction, politics quits such studies. 30 year of ideology (and no facts) in education: excellence vs. equity, one-tiered vs. multi-tiered school system, … PISA ends a period of ideology and complacency, followed by an empirical and pragmatic approach to educational reforms

5. Positive reviews: PISA has done more for education in Germany than 30 years of ideological discussions before Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 5 „PISA stopped the complacency and self-confidence, with which Germany had looked at its education system for too long.“ Der SPIEGEL, 2010 „Since PISA, education is no hullabaloo anymore.“ „Since PISA, education is no hullabaloo anymore.“ Baumert, 2011 „Germany has become a role model for cooperation between academia and politics.“ Klieme et al., 2010

6. Increasing challenges for education in Germany: Changes in society lead to an unprecedented classroom diversity Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 6 PISA shock 2001 PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces New transparency and empiricism: competence standards and accountability Germany below average in all skills dimensions Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills Impressive improve- ments But also: reasonable fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness Public and poli- tical attention

7. Demographics, migration and parents put increasing challenges on the German education system 7 Demographics: number of students (and schools) heavily shrinks Migration: Germany becomes (much more) diverse Parental will: parents want all children to go to grammar school Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Growing diversity means additional reform pressure for the German education system Page 7

8. Relative change in numbers of 10- to 15-year-old children (2009 to 2025) legend: changes in percent Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, www.wegweiser-kommune.de Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 8 Demographics: Number of students shrinks by 15% – in some West German regions even by up to 40% School mergers – classroom diversity is increasing

9. 34 % 16 % + 112% Source: Mikrozensus 2007 Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Germany: share of population with migration background Frankfurt: almost three out of four newborns with migration backgrund Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, Mikrozensus Migration: Germany is today an immigration country – one third of the youngest with migration background Page 9 Classroom diversity is increasing 72%

10. Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 10 Parental will: The grammar school (Gymnasium) becomes the comprehensive school of the middle class students at grammar schools as share of all students in class 8 (in percent) Local grammar school share of up to 80% – classroom diversity is increasing

11. The PISA shock has opened a window for some major structural policy reforms in Germany over the last decade Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 11 PISA shock 2001 PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces New transparency and empiricism: competence standards and accountability Germany below average in all skills dimensions Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills Impressive improve- ments But also: reasonable fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness Public and poli- tical attention

12. ECEC, full-day schools, inclusion, two-tier schooling: Germany has started a wide ranging reform Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 12 Two-tiered schooling as a standard Structural changes in German education Expanding full-day schooling Commitment to inclusive education Expanding Early Childhood Education 2001 58 % 2011 88 %

13. Expanding quality Early Childhood Education: Massive in- vestments and new legal entitlement, but a long way to go Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 13 Dynamic expansion, but legal right for child daycare (under 3 ys.) in 2013 very difficult to meet (demand 50%, today‘s supply 25%) Source: Mikrozensus 2001, Bertelsmann Stiftung: Länderreport Frühkindliche Bildungssysteme 2011 under-three-year olds (2001-2011): Institutional daycare has tripled Better Quality (2006-2011): child-staff ratio down to 4.7 from 6.5 2001 58 % 2011 88 % three-year olds in daycare (Germany)

14. Two-tiered schooling as a standard: Germany‘s traditional multi-tiered schooling system is being dissolved Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 14 Decline of Hauptschulen leads to a new system of Gymnasium (grammar school, 12 years) and one additional type of secondary school (13 years). % Pupils at Hauptschulen (8th grade) Pupils allowed to study at HEI Educational expansion in Germany Development 1960-2010 Hauptschule: 72 % to 18 % Access to Higher Education: 6 % to 48 %

15. Expanding full-day schooling: Very dynamic expansion, but supply still lags far behind actual demand Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 15 numbers in percent growth rate Share of all pupils in full-day schooling Attendance rate full-day schooling Germany: 28 % Sweden: 100 % USA: 100 % Canada: 100 % Dynamic expansion with huge regional disparities, but Germany is still far behind international standards and demand Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012

16. Commitment to inclusive education: About half a million children with special needs may attend regular schooling Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 16 On average two special need children per regular class – Need for new didactics (individual support) Implementing UN convention leads to dissolution of special needs schooling in Germany 485.418 special needs pupils 3.306 special need schools 9 types of special support Today Tomorrow

17. New transparency and empiricism: The PISA shock triggered an unseen collaboration of politics and academia Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 17 PISA shock 2001 PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces New transparency and empiricism: competence standards and accountability Germany below average in all skills dimensions Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills Impressive improve- ments But also: reasonable fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness Public and poli- tical attention

18. PISA has brought standards and accountability into German education Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 18 National competence standards (since 2004) National competence standards (since 2004) Output-oriented competence standards for grades 4, 9 and 10 developed by academia, enacted by politics institutionalized in 2010 National education report (since 2006) Bi-yearly indicator-based monitoring by an expert consortium of indepen- dent academics and commissioned by politics PISA follow up Regular participation in international study, but since 2006 no intra- German comparison anymore (due to self control of the Länder) Regulated transparency: Politics tends to keep data under control

19. Looking at the results: Germany has experienced a decade of impressive educational improvements Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 19 PISA shock 2001 PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces New transparency and empiricism: competence standards and accountability Germany below average in all skills dimensions Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills Impressive improve- ments But also: reasonable fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness Public and poli- tical attention

20. Germany is not Germany: Average science performance of the 16 German Länder differs by nearly 60 points Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 20 Average science competence gap of two school years between Saxony and Bremen

21. Improvements in all dimensions: Germany has reached the OECD average in reading, exceeded in maths and science Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 21 Significant improvements in all skills dimensions over the last decade: 13 points in reading, 23 points in maths and science (=one school year) Source: PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends, simplified illustration Reading Mathematics Science 2000 2009 OECD Average Below Average Above Average 2000 2009 2000 2009

22. Germany‘s success story stems from closing the gap – but unfortunately at the cost of the best Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 22 Disparities have decreased, but are still significant – Remarkable improvements from the bottom, stagnancy at the top improvement from 2000 to 2006 (PISA points) reading skills 2000 (PISA points) ! Formerly weak Länder succeed Overall skills disparities decrease PISA 2009 Results: Learning TrendsSource: Wössmann, 2012 reading skills

23. Social dependency has significantly decreased – Germany‘s socio-economic gradient now at OECD average Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012Page 23 Coming from lag-end in 2000, Germany‘s social-economic gradient has now reached OECD average social dependency Migration (reading competence 2000-2009): students with migration background (+27 points) have made up for one school year (others: +4) Family background (reading competence 2000-2009): working-class children have significantly improved, while upper social class perfor- mance decreased Source: Klieme et al., 2010

24. Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Share of students below minimum reading skills (PISA) Source: PISA 2000 and 2009 Page 24 percent But the most serious problem is still to be solved: One out of five children is lost to inadequate education in Germany Significant progress, but nearly one in five teenagers still cannot properly read (focus: boys with migration background)

25. Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich Page 25 Conclusion: Though it was not planned, Germany has moved piece by piece towards a whole-system reform PISA triggered (new) transparency More Lear- ning Time (ECEC + full-day school) Focus on outcome/ performance Inclu- sive edu- cation Individualized support for ALL children Strong public and political attention 2-tiered school structure  improved structures & opportunities Piece by piece towards a whole-system reform  capacity building  standards & autonomy

26. Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich Page 26 Fear: Losing transparency again would endanger the whole system’s stability Less Transparency More Learning Time (ECEC + full-day) Focus on outcome/ performance Inclu- sive edu- cation Individualized support for ALL children Decreasing public and political attention 2-tiered school structure  Danger of wasted money (expensive unmeasured measures) Well-meant, but not well- done reform pieces  Danger of arbitrariness Dangerous self- control of the Länder most-problematic areas not measured (Haupt- schulen, special need schools) no comparison between Länder anymore (exit from PISA-E) scientists without access to PISA data

27. Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany Dr. Jörg Dräger Harvard University, July 26 th, 2012