1. Vincent Calluzzo Dean, Hagan School of Business, Iona College James Murtha Chairman and CEO, Maguire Associates Mary Beth Carey Vice President for Enrollment Management, Iona College Ganesh M. Pandit Associate Professor of Accounting and Special Assistant to the Dean Robert B. Willumstad School of Business, Adelphi University 1 Presentation Participants

2. The Changing Meaning of May 1 in College Admission and Enrollment Presentation to Mid-Atlantic Association for Colleges of Business Administration (MAACBA) October 16, 2014 Jim Murtha, Ph.D. Chairman & CEO Maguire Associates

3. Need for perspective May 1 st and our focus on it may be something headed to the rear view mirror Many public institutions always had substantial activity after May 1 For-profit colleges offer a carousel of courses that starts every 7 or 8 weeks The meaning of “selectivity” is changing: students have more choices and are weighing their options May 1 is a reflection of a “new normal” in higher education

4. Emergence of an Economic “New Normal” Idea is credited to Mohamed El-Erian (Financial Times, July 2009), recently departed CEO of PIMCO. The new normal is a time when global growth and investment returns will be far lower than in the recent past. higher than normal unemployment Federal Reserve predictions also include slower than expected growth lingering very low interest rates

5. Origins of a New Normal Cheap debt fueled a spending binge Leading to a housing price bubble Too much debt for gov’t, individuals and some businesses When housing prices fell to more normal levels, everyone tried to bail Families had to pay off debt even as home prices declined, a lot Families lost wealth leading to lower consumer spending Reduced spending also lowered overall economic activity made businesses skittish about hiring, even when things improved

6. A New Normal for Higher Education? Did the economic downturn change higher education? In a fundamental way? For the long term? My answer to these questions is yes, yes and yes

7. National Postsecondary Enrollment by Sector

8. A “New Normal” for Colleges and Universities? Five Dimensions: Greater price sensitivity Fewer resources Expense pressure from revenue shortfalls Greater competition Struggle to survive Here to stay? These forces were at play prior to the fiscal crisis Financial upheaval added to internal and external pressures Financial turmoil adds impetus to a financial transformation in higher education that was already underway.

9. Demand Factors

10. Demography College enrollment will grow more slowly, especially in the private sector Greater participation of those over 25 years old Current high school graduates will continue to decline or remain flat in all States outside the South White high school graduates will decline while Hispanics and Asians will rise

11. Finances Most students attend public institutions with low tuition Tuition charges have increased, while median family income is flat Debt has become a “problem” rather than a solution Data show that families are more price conscious Financial aid offices report steadily rising tendency to “negotiate” final net tuition Students “deposit” later and greater “melt” is occurring More financial aid “appeals”

12. Questioning the “Value” of College Students and families are motived by jobs and careers Vast majority of those who begin seek a BA, though far fewer finish one and even fewer finish on time High unemployment and “under-employment” raise questions Government scorecards raise additional questions Is it worth it?

13. Consumer orientation Students and families now behave as “customers” or “clients” Other service organizations –even the DMV – make things simple and effective on line Students expect similar customer orientation from colleges they inquire about They expect to be recruited, to choose the college, not to be “admitted.”

14. Implications Private higher education is due for a major shakeout that will lead to closures, mergers and consolidations Scholarship support will need to remain high to meet price resistance among parents Less “net tuition” revenue per student and high discounts will remain Private institutions will become more like publics to survive, they will need to dig deeper into the pool Success will depend on demonstrating value in the job market and careers to appeal to first generation college students and families

15. Rays of light Value can be demonstrated Technology and innovative management can produces savings Career focus and career education can be demonstrated Transfer and international students offer undergraduate opportunities Adults offer opportunity for both undergraduate and graduate programs Colleges can develop their own best “fit” with potential students, carve out a niche

16. Conclusion As the ready supply of potential college applicants has diminished, so have the resources available to each entering cohort Resource constraints in the current pool coupled with declining numbers curtail options for institutions: less pricing power, less discretion in “admissions” Students and families also have less true choice, making local, public “choices” more likely. Opportunity has diminished for both the student and institutional sides of the equation

17. References Term Enrollment Estimates Fall 2012, (National Student Clearing House Research Center, Fall 2012) Term Enrollment Estimates Fall 2013, National Student Clearing House Research Center, Fall 2013) Digest of Educational Statistics, 2012, Graduate Enrollment and Degrees: 2002 to 2012 (Leila M. Gonzales, Jeffrey R. Allum, Robert S. Sowell) Council of Graduate Schools Graduate Record Examinations Board September 2013 National Postsecondary Enrollment Trends Before, During, and After the Great Recession (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Afet Dunbar, Don Hossler, Doug Shapiro Project on Academic Success, Indiana University Jin Chen, Sarah Martin, Vasti Torres, Desiree Zerquera, Mary Ziskin) July 2011 “Colleges Struggling to Stay Afloat,” Jeffrey J. Selingo New York Times April 12, 2013 Trends for 2014; the Lawlor Group (http://clients.thelawlorgroup.com/Lawlor_Trends_2014.pdf), particularly on Demand Factors.http://clients.thelawlorgroup.com/Lawlor_Trends_2014.pdf

18. Finance and Strategy Planning October 16, 2014 18 Mid-Atlantic Association for Colleges of Business Administration 2014

19. Vincent Calluzzo Dean, Hagan School of Business, Iona College James Murtha Chairman and CEO, Maguire Associates Mary Beth Carey Vice President for Enrollment Management, Iona College Ganesh M. Pandit Associate Professor of Accounting and Special Assistant to the Dean Robert B. Willumstad School of Business, Adelphi University 19 Presentation Participants

20. Agenda /Iona College Case Study Higher Education in the News Sustainable Future for Higher Education? National and New York State Demographics Iona Geomarkets Iona College, Fall 2014 Enrollment Cycle Post May 1 Strategy Post May 1 Results Freshmen Achievements 20

21. Higher Education In the News St. Mary’s College of Maryland joins troubling trend: Too many empty freshman seats, The Washington Post, November 1, 2013, Nick Anderson Rising Tuition Discounts and Flat Tuition Revenues Squeeze Colleges Even Harder, The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 24, 2014, Scott Carlson The Hottest Seat on Campus, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 15, 2014, Eric Hoover New Guide on International Recruitment Agents, AACRO, September 17, 2014 More Pressure Than Ever: The 2014 Survey of College and University Admissions Directors, Inside Higher Ed, September 18, 2014, Scott Jashik Common App No Longer Requires Members to Conduct ‘Holistic’ Reviews, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 19, 2014, Eric Hoover Admissions Leaders Gather to Weigh ‘Prestige, Financial Aid, and Love’, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 22, 2014, Eric Hoover Goals for Enrollment and Tuition Revenue Elude Many Colleges, The Chronicle of Higher Education, October 13, 2014, Scott Carlson 21

22. Sustainable Future for Higher Education? Private Colleges at Risk Failure to meet Enrollment Goals Revenue Shortfalls Need for Programs to Increase Revenue Source: Weathering the Economic Storm: CFOs on Building a Sustainable Future for Higher Education 22

23. Nation-wide High School Graduation Projection 2008 - 2028 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2013 23

24. New York State Public High School Graduation Projection 2008 – 2023 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2014 24

25. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2009–10 through 2022-23 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, February 2014 25

26. Recruitment Intelligence Geomarkets Secondary/Tertiary NORTHEAST MA, RI VT, NH, ME, Upstate NY DELMARVA Delaware Maryland Virginia/West Virginia D.C. MIDWEST/CENTRAL Chicago, IL Milwaukee, WI St. Louis, MO Tennessee Colorado Ohio PACIFIC/NORTHWEST Portland, OR Seattle, WA Spokane, WA California Primary Markets (Tri-State) NYC, Westchester, Long Island, Rockland, Dutchess, Ulster New Jersey, Pennsylvania Connecticut Emerging/Growing Markets Georgia Texas Louisiana North & South Carolina Florida Puerto Rico Arizona Virgin Islands Hawaii 26

27. The Day The Deposits Stood Still “April 20 th : Black Monday”

28. The List National Association for College Admission Counseling’s (NACAC’s) annual College Openings Update (formerly the “Space Availability Survey”) A tool for counselors, parents and teachers as they assist students who have not yet completed the college application and admission process after the May 1 response deadline observed by many colleges. In cases where well-qualified students may not have applied to a range of institutions, or may have been turned down by all schools to which they applied, the Update provides a listing of schools accepting applications post-May 1 The list includes information on the availability of financial aid and housing.

29. Post-May 1 Strategy Guidance Counselor / High School Outreach Completed NACAC College Openings Update Survey Guidance Counselor Relationships High School Visits Call Campaigns 5 days a week evening hours to 8:30 pm Reduced to 7:30 during July and August Segmented populations: regions, quality, non-FAFSA filers, FAFSA filers/no application for admissions, transfers Adhered to NACAC guidelines – did not “sell” to those deposited at other schools Additional Visit Opportunities/ Immediate Decisions Last Minute Mondays Transfer Tuesdays 29

30. Post-May 1 Strategy Modified Financial Aid Appeal Process Targeted Additional Aid Dollars Freshmen Transfers Melt Management / “Onboarding” Monitoring Attended Orientation? Completed Residential Life Contract/Deposit? Complied with Health Requirements? Returning Student Outreach Supplemented Spring Outreach Activity Not Yet Registered for Fall No FAFSA on File 30

31. Post-May 1 Results Metric May 1Census Date Increase Freshmen Gross Deposits659872216 Freshmen Net Deposits657802145 Transfer Gross Deposits2410278 Transfer Net Deposits249571 Continuing Undergraduate Heads - Fall18482106258 31

32. Fall 2014 Undergraduate Admissions Achievements Increased Freshmen applications: 117% of goal Increased number of completed applications: 122% of goal Increased rate of completed applications: 85% versus plan of 82% Actively managing admit rate - increased selectivity: 87% completed application admit rate versus 92% for Fall 2013 Increased quality of students – average SAT of both admitted (1049) and deposited (1023) students up over prior year (1015) 800 enrolled first-time, full-time Freshmen (budget of 760) Discount Rate: 50.7% 32

33. The Future Despite the turbulent environment and enrollment volatility, Iona experienced positive enrollment results Remain acutely aware of the national trends, shifting demographics, and challenges in the marketplace The future sustainability of private liberal arts education is unknown