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Jim Fournier February 27, 2006 An Optimistic Scenario About Global Warming, Peak Oil and Other Global Crises.

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Presentation on theme: "Jim Fournier February 27, 2006 An Optimistic Scenario About Global Warming, Peak Oil and Other Global Crises."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Jim Fournier February 27, 2006 An Optimistic Scenario About Global Warming, Peak Oil and Other Global Crises

3 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 1 Good News! …Later

4 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 2 What Are We to Make of the Global Situation?

5 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 3 The Human Time Scale

6 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 4 Four Planetary Crises, or Evolutionary Drivers: 1.Global Warming 2.Peak Oil 3.Peak Population 4.Resource Depletion (Mass Extinction)

7 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 5 Global Warming: Climate Change Atmospheric CO2 & Temperature, 1000 Years

8 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 6 CO2, Methane, & Temperature Over the Last 160,000 Years

9 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 7 Peak Oil

10 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 8 The Green Party View

11 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 9 Peak Oil Will Increase Energy Prices Drive Efficiency Reduce Demand Enable Renewables Increase Demand for Coal & Oil Sand

12 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 10 Global Energy Use Per Person Has Actually Stopped Growing background%20info.html

13 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 11 But the Population has Not, so CO 2 is Still Growing Under Kyoto

14 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 12 Long-Term Population Growth Global Population: Milestones, Hopes, and Concerns Vaclav Smil, PhD

15 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 13 Population S-Curve

16 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 14 Peak Population?

17 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 15 Some Plausible Good News On Population U.N. Population Figures May be Correct, Because Over 50% of the Global Population Now Lives in Cities and a Large Family is a Liability in a City, Even Among the Poor

18 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 16 Overall Consumption Is Still Growing Natural Resource Use

19 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 17 Measured by Weight, 95% of All Output from Industrial Activity is Waste Grasberg Gold Mine, West Papua

20 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 18 Ecological Footprints Attempt to Combine Many Factors and Fail to Focus on Key Biological Resources: Forests Fisheries Farmland Fresh Water

21 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 19 Destruction of Forests

22 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 20 Collapse of Fisheries

23 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 21 Exhaustion of Farmland 40% of all Agricultural Soils are Seriously Depleted

24 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 22 Limited Fresh Water Supply

25 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 23 All Put Biodiversity At Risk

26 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 24 If We Do Not Change Course, We Will Lose Half the Species on Earth in the Next 100 Years Tree of Life Web Project

27 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 25 For all of human evolution Nature was something with teeth and claws that could jump out of the dark and eat you. Now, in a single generation that situation has been inverted. Nature is suddenly something fragile that we must protect lest we perish.

28 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 26 What Are We to Make of the Global Situation?

29 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 27 One Biological Metaphor Is Cancer

30 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 28 Will Humanity Turn Out to Be Like a Colony of Mold in a Petri Dish?

31 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 29 Or Like An Embryo

32 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 30 Using The White of the Egg to Grow

33 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 31 A New Form of Complexity? © James L. Fournier

34 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 32 Teilhard de Chardin’s Noosphere… © James L. Fournier

35 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 33 Nature has repeatedly done just that before. Life has always invented its way out of the box.

36 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 34 Here’s the Box

37 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 35 Periodic Spiral of the Elements © James L. Fournier

38 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 36 Eight Fold Spiral Elements © James L. Fournier

39 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 37 Inner Spiral of the Elements © James L. Fournier

40 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 38 Reframing the Evolution of Technology In the Context of Biological Evolution Roger Dean

41 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 39 Life First Derived Energy from Chemicals in the Primordial Soup

42 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 40 Until Photosynthesis

43 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 41 Only After the Oxygen Released Rusted All of the Iron in the Earth’s Crust

44 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 42 The Oxygen Level Finally Spiked Causing Spontaneous Combustion

45 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 43 Respiration Took Advantage of New High-Energy Oxygen

46 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 44 Resulting in the Carbon Cycle

47 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 45 Five Mass Extinctions 1.End-Cretaceous 65 Ma 2.Bajocian 175 Ma 3.Guadaloupian 256 Ma 4.Ashgill 448 Ma 5.Late Precambrian 650 Ma

48 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 46 The Carbon Cycle Has Remained in Balance Until Deforestation and Fossil Fuels Increased CO 2 Levels

49 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 47 Peak Oil Is Analogous to Previous Energy Crises on Earth When Our Ancestors, the Microbes, Used Up All of the Most Easily Available Energy

50 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 48 As Humanity Has Discovered How to Take Advantage of the Immense Fossil Energy Reserves of the Planet, We Have, Like Other Life Forms Before Us, Unbalanced the Atmosphere

51 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 49 Since the year 2000 even our president has started saying that we are going toward a hydrogen economy. Everyone seems to agree that we need renewable energy.

52 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 50 The Ratio of Hydrogen to Carbon Has Been Steadily Evolving Wood Peat Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen  Each has more Hydrogen and less Carbon  Until one arrives at pure Hydrogen  Hydrogen is the smallest element

53 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 51 Energy In Matter Inevitably Converges on Hydrogen © James L. Fournier

54 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 52 Transformation of Energy Media from Wood to Hydrogen

55 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 53 We Can See Other Parallels With Nature As Well?

56 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 54 Photovoltaics Capture Photons in Silicon Just as Photosynthesis Does with Carbon

57 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 55 Silicon is Like the Next Octave of Carbon © James L. Fournier

58 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 56 Solar Is the Long-term Solution

59 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 57 Wind Is Cost Effective Now

60 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 58 Neither can reverse the climate change already set In motion.

61 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 59 Current Biomass Technology Depletes The Soil Is Only Carbon Neutral

62 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 60 We Need a Bridge, Something to Close the Gap Between: 6 Quads Renewables Provide Now.06 Quads Each For Solar & Wind 100 Quads/Year U.S. Consumes A Quad Is: 1 Quadrillion BTU 1,000,000,000,000 BTU = 580,000 barrels of oil

63 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 61 If the bridge were not just Carbon Neutral, like current renewables, but Carbon Negative, i.e. could remove net CO 2 from the atmosphere, it would be a miracle.

64 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 62 Terra Preta Agricultural Soil Carbon Breakthrough Made in the Amazon 500 Years Ago Removes Net CO 2 From the Atmosphere Restores & Improves Soil Fertility Replenished By Soil Organisms

65 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 63 Biomass Energy Breakthrough The Best Charcoal For The Soil Also Makes Hydrogen Energy

66 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 64 Carbon Sequestration Breakthrough

67 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 65 Fully Integrated Small Scale Biomass Technology Will: Remove CO 2 From the Atmosphere Return CO 2 to the Soil As Fertilizer Restore Soil While Adding Nitrogen Create Green Diesel Infrastructure Create Hydrogen Infrastructure

68 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 66 Mimics the Carbon Cycle

69 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 67 An Octave of the Carbon Cycle © James L. Fournier

70 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 68 “Back of the Envelop” Global Calculations These are NOT fully proven results The following are a first pass approximation of what MIGHT potentially be possible based on what we have seen from initial science, preliminary field trials and first working prototypes of the this technology

71 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 69 Potential Global Context We Release 26,700,000,000 Tons of CO 2 One Unit Can Remove 4,000 Tons of CO 2 Soil Organisms Increase This Around 200% 3.5M Units To Remove 26.7B Tons of CO 2 Would Also Produce 25B Barrels of Diesel Global Oil Production = 26B Barrels (2004)

72 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 70 How Much Land Would That Take? 1 Unit Needs 10 Tons of Biomass per Day 1 Unit Needs 3,000 Tons Biomass per Year 1 to 10 Tons of Biomass per Acre per Year For Each Unit: 300 to 3,000 Acres For 3.5 Million Units: 1 to 10 Billion Acres Total Global Agricultural Land: 12B Acres Does Not Include Forestry Land

73 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 71 There Is No Guarantee; Stabilizing Climate Change Will Be a Race Increase Energy Efficiency Increase Material Efficiency Ethanol, Methanol & Other Biofuels Capture Methane From Compost Reduce Beef Production (Methane) Capture & Sequester CO 2 From Coal Solar, Wind, Tidal, Geothermal Heat Pumps

74 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 72 It Is Plausible That We Could Reverse Global Warming Transition From Fossil Fuels to Renewables Transition From Biodiesel to Hydrogen Restore Soil Fertility Eliminate Nitrogen Runoff Eliminate Acid Rain Decentralize Wealth Creation

75 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 73 We Could Transform the Global Situation Into Something That Feels More Like a Winning Hand of Solitaire

76 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 74 Plausible Solutions For: Global Warming Peak Oil Peak Population ?Mass Extinction

77 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 75 An S-Curve Goes from Concave Up to Concave Down at the Point of Inflection Point of Inflection If Global Trends Decelerate, What Looked Like Log Curves May Turn Out to be S-Curves

78 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 76 An S-Curve Implies a Future Plateau Characterized by Climax Technology © James L. Fournier

79 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 77 We are undergoing a point of inversion in matter and culture. From this point on our technological evolution in matter may be guided by the recognition of the potential for a climax technology, a state of Meta-Nature. A state as harmonious as nature in the coherence of its design, which, like nature, is the realization of a potential already inherent in the puzzle that is matter. Meta-Nature

80 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 78 GEOMAN © James L. Fournier

81 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 79 At the Point of Inflection Near the Millennium the System Is: Changing So Fast That Nothing is Retained So Inefficient Nothing Should Be Retained First Glimpsing the Potential Future State Passing Through the Neck of the Hourglass Itself the Global Birth Canal Chaotic, Highly Unstable

82 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 80 The Shift must reframe the perception of society, to at once validate everything that has happened to bring us to this point, while at the same time making it self-evident to everyone that we must each now radically change course in the light of this new found perspective.

83 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 81 The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

84 February 27, 2006The Planetary Situation 82 As We Pass Through the Neck of the Hourglass There Will Be Two Key Measures of Success: Preservation of Biodiversity Achieving Climax Technology


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