1. Land Use Emissions, Rice & Climate Change Yaqiu Li Jiangfeng Wei Yan Zhang Wenyan Yu

2. Outline  Land-use emissions  Rice and methane  Climate change effects on rice

3. Land use “The total of arrangements, activities, and inputs that people undertake in a certain land cover type.”  Peri-Urban Land  Wetlands  Cropland  Agroforestry Land  Rangeland/Grasslands  Forest Land  Deserts In sequence of increasing intensity of use, basically

5. The Influence of Land Use on Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks  Land-use emissions  Carbon stocks  Land-Use Management

6. land-use main emissions  CO 2 from net deforestation (nearly all)  CH 4 from rice cultivation  CH 4 from enteric fermentation of cattle  N 2 O from fertilizer application (80%) ] (53%)

7. Emissions of carbon dioxide due to changes in land use mainly come from the cutting down of forests

8. CH 4 Source Mt CH4 yr -1 Gt C-eq yr -1 Livestock 110 (85 – 130)0.6 (0.5 – 0.7) Rice paddies 60 (20 – 100)0.3 (0.1 – 0.6) Biomass burning 40 (20 – 80)0.2 (0.1 – 0.5) Natural wetlands 115 (55 – 150)0.7 (0.3 – 0.9) Source of CH 4

9. N 2 O SourceMt N 2 O yr -1 Gt C-eq yr -1 Cultivated soils 3.5 (1.8 – 5.3)0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) Biomass burning 0.5 (0.2 – 1)0.1 (0.05 – 0.3) Livestock (cattle and feed lots) 0.4 (0.2 – 0.5)0.1 (0.05 – 0.13) Natural tropical soils — wet forests3 (2.2 – 3.7)0.8 (0.6 – 1) Natural tropical soils — dry savannas1 (0.5 – 2)0.3 (0.1 – 0.5) Natural temperate soils — forests1 (0.1 – 2)0.3 (0.03 – 0.5) Natural temperate soils — grasslands1 (0.5 – 2)0.3 (0.1 – 0.5) N 2 O Source

10. Carbon Stocks  Land-use change is often associated with a change in carbon stocks.  conversion of natural ecosystems to permanent croplands,  conversion of natural ecosystems for shifting of cultivation,  conversion of natural ecosystems to pasture  abandonment of croplands,  abandonment of pastures,  harvest of timber,  establishment of tree plantations

12. Global carbon stocks in vegetation and top 1 m of soils Area (10 6 km 2 ) Carbon Stocks (Gt C) BiomeVegetationSoilsTotal Tropical forests17.6212216428 Temperate forests10.459100159 Boreal forests13.788471559 Tropical savannas22.566264330 Temperate grasslands12.59295304 Deserts and semideserts45.58191199 Tundra9.56121127 Wetlands3.515225240 Croplands16.03128131 Total151.246620112477

15. Land use managent  Vegetation can “sequester” or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it for potentially long periods in above- and below- ground biomass, as well as in soils.  Soils, trees, crops, and other plants may make significant contributions to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by serving as carbon “sinks.”

16. Options for Managing Terrestrial Carbon  Avoid emissions through the conservation of existing carbon stocks in forests and otherecosystems, including in soils (i.e., reducing LULUCF emissions). An example is reducing the rate of deforestation.  Sequester additional carbon in forests and other ecosystems (including in soils), in forest products, and in landfills (i.e., enhancing LULUCF removals). An example is planting trees where there have not been trees in the past (afforestation).

17. Options for Managing Terrestrial Carbon  Substitute renewable biomass fuels for fossil fuels (i.e., fuel substitution), or use biomass products to replace products from other materials such as steel or concrete, that have different, often greater, fossil-fuel requirements in their production and use (i.e., materials substitution).

18. Mean annual carbon emissions from alternative land-use management options (1991-2001).

19. Methane and Rice  1. Methane (CH4) is second important greenhouse gas (GHG).  2. In 100 year period, a molecular CH4 can absorb about 25 times more energy than a molecular CO2.

22. Methane emission from rice fields

23. Global estimates of CH4 emission from rice fields  1. The source strength of rice fields in Asia was estimated to range between 46 and 63 million t/yr of methane.  2. Comprising 51% of the global harvested rice area, rice fields in China and India emit 29-40 million t/yr.  3. Global estimates of rice field methane production range up to 100 million t/yr.

24. Different emission in Asia  Irrigated rice, comprised 50% of total rice area, accounts for 80% of methane emissions.

25. Emissions vary in different locations

26. Sinks  1. Troposphere & stratosphere :  broken down by OH  Troposphere: 506 Tg/yr  Stratosphere: 40 Tg/Yr  2. Soil: about 30 Tg/yr

27. Mitigation of effect  Emission reductions produce an immediate and significant impact on climate change  Why?

28. Rice Paddies and methyl halides  Figure 1. Maxwell, California, averaged weekly fluxes during 1998 for methane, methyl chloride, methyl bromide, and methyl iodide. Arrows indicate maximum tillering (M, 55 DAS), booting (B, 70 DAS), heading (H, 80 DAS), flowering (F, 90 DAS), and the reflooding date (RF, 45 DAS). The flux for all gases is shown; note differing scales of emission for each gas. Symbols:, straw-incorporated plots;, burnt straw plots;, controls. Error bars show one standard deviation.

29.  Fig. 2. Maxwell, California, averaged weekly fluxes during 1999 for methane, methyl chloride, methyl bromide, and methyl iodide. Arrows indicate maximum tillering (M, 47 DAS), booting (B, 75 DAS), heading (H, 89 DAS), and flowering (F, 97 DAS). The flux for all gases is shown; note differing scales of emission for each gas. Symbols:, straw- incorporated plots;, burnt straw plots;, controls. Error bars show one standard deviation

30. The worldwide rice farming contributes methyl bromide -----1% methyl iodide -------5%

31. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Rice Production

32. ----What the rice paddies looks like from the sky? ----People working in the rice paddies.

33. The Importance of Rice  One of the world’s most important food crops, staple food for over 50 % people in this world.  To meet the demands of a growing population, agricultural productivity must continue to increase.  If global climate changes act to reduce food production, serious, long- term food shortages and aggravation of societal problems could result.

34. Climate Reasons that affect the Rice Growing 1. Greenhouse Gases and Increased temperature: Concentrations of GHGs like CO2 and CH4 have increased significantly since preindustrial times. The concentrations of these gases have a powerful influence on the average global temperature of the planet, and consequently, on the global climate.

35. . Rice is the world’s most important food crop and grown mostly in tropical and subtropical countries.. It is know that UV-B radiation is highest in tropical regions where rice is grown, because the stratospheric ozone layer is high latitude, and the solar angles are higher.. After preindustrial period, people have release great amount of ozone decomposing matters, like chorofluorocarbons (CFCs) which already induced stratospheric ozone depletion, thus increasing the incoming UV-B. 2. Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Effects on Rice---UV-B Radiation:

37. Climate Change — Rice Response to UV-B

38. Targets Growth,Yield Morphology, Chemical matters UV-B Photosynthesis Carbon Allocation Competition pest, Pathogen, Decomposition BiodiversityYield Biogeochem Circling Endpoints Ecosystem Whole Plant Tissue Molecular known less known

39. 0 16 23 32 Effect of UV-B on Rice Yield Seed dry weight (g) Percent UV-B Enhancement Cultivar ‘ Lebonnet ’ 1.Possible trends towards a reduction in seed yield under enhanced UV-B conditions of ozone depletions of 8 to 16% (Florida, US, 1984)

40. 2. Rice growth and photosynthesis can be suppressed by exposure to UV-B under greenhouse conditions. 3. UV-B can induce the accumulation of UV-absorbing pigments and alter leaf surface characteristics. But, it is unknown whether these responses are sufficient to completely protect rice from increased exposure to UV-B. 4. UV-B can alter plant morphology without reducing plant biomass. These morphological traits, like tillering, is known to influence rice yield, UV-B could potentially alter grain yield without apparent reductions in total production

41. 5. UV-B radiation changing rice productivity related to radiation magnitude and direction. And this character depends on rice cultivar. 6. Results from pilot experiments indicate that UV-B enhancement can significantly increase the susceptibility of rice to blast disease. 7. UV-B enhancement is known to alter the competitive balance between crops and weeds

42. Global warming — Effects of CO2 and temperature on rice production

43. Effects of CO2 and temperature on the rice ecosystem  Increasing atmospheric CO2 stimulates plant growth, the beneficial effects on rice growth have been observed for levels only up to 500 ppm. Some plant species respond positively to CO2 levels up to 1,000 ppm.  The benefits of increased CO2 would be lost if temperatures also rise. That is because increased temperature shortens the period over which rice grows.

44. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 yield (kg/ha) Temperature change (K) CO 2 (ppm) Interactive effects of CO2 and temperature (Bachelet et al., 1993)

45. Indirect effects of global climate change on rice  Altered timing and magnitude of precipitation can induce drought or flood injury  Increased temperatures, and/or changes in precipitation could have dramatic impacts on rice diseases and insects.  Enhanced UV-B, enriched CO2 and increased temperatures may all alter competition between rice and major weeds, and the contribution of other organisms to nitrogen fixation in rice fields.

46. Models Both models (ORYZA1, SIMRIW) were potential production models – i.e. yield determined only by temperature, sunlight, CO2 level, daylength, crop variety, planting and harvest dates Did not take into account: water limitations nutrient (N,P,K) limitations weeds, pests & diseases

47. Climate scenarios GFDL GISS UKMO Name Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Goddard Institute of Space Studies United Kingdom Meteorological Office Base CO 2 (ppm) 300 323 Temperature change (  C) +4.0 +4.2 +5.2 Precipitation change (%) 8 11 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs)

48. GFDL % change in regional rice production predicted by ORYZA1 and SIMRIW under different GCM scenarios GFDLGISSUKMO ORYZA1+6.5-4.4-5.6 SIMRIW+4.2-10.4-12.8 68 weather stations (Matthews et al., 1995) 3 GCM scenarios Predicted yield changes

49. Model results  The results of recent international modeling exercises suggest a mixed future of 2XCO2 for rice production in Asia, with some countries benefiting and others losing production.  Overall, Asian rice production, based on present varieties and systems, could decline by about 4% in the climates of the next century.

50. ENSO and rice production ( Sri Lanka) October to May May to September

51. Adaptation options  Adjusting planting dates to avoid higher temperatures at flowering time (warmer regions)  Breeding temperature tolerant varieties (warmer regions)  Transition from single-cropping to double-cropping where extended growing season permits (cooler regions)  Selection for varieties with greater response to elevated CO2 (all regions)  Breed crop plants tolerant to UV- B radiation

52. Conclusion  Land use change has an influence on green house gas sources and sinks.  Rice paddies are a large source of CH4, an assessment of the agricultural effects of global environmental change must include rice as a crop of primary interest.  While there is some information regarding the single effects of UV-B, CO2, temperature and precipitation on rice, little is know about the interactive effects of these factors.