1. Disrupting College How Disruptive Innovation Can Deliver Quality and Affordability to Postsecondary Education Michael B. Horn | mhorn@christenseninstitute.org | Twitter: @christenseninst

2. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst The struggles facing colleges & universities

3. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Chorus questioning higher ed’s quality What do students learn? Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen universities who took the Collegiate Learning Assessment 45% demonstrated no gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, & written communications during first two years 32% did not typically take courses with more than 40 pages of reading per week 50% did not take a single course in which they wrote more than 20 pages

4. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst America’s degree edge is slipping Percentage of students with postsecondary degrees by age group 55-6445-5435-4425-34All (25-64)

5. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Job mismatch paradox 3.6 million job openings for which employers say they can’t find qualified employees 49% of US employers struggle to fill vacant jobs because of lack of talent, compared to 34% globally

6. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst E < T + G + I + C + M Traditional college business model is breaking

7. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst What is disruptive innovation?

8. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Performance Time Disruptive Innovations Time Sustaining innovations Incumbents dominate sustaining battles Entrants typically win at disruption Customer ability to use improvements Pace of technological improvement 45% margin on $250,000 40% margin  20% margin on $2,000 60% margin on $500,000 Performance Sustaining vs. Disruptive Innovation

9. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Disruption = affordability, accessibility Past and present examples Yesterday GM Dept. Stores Digital Equipment Delta JP Morgan Xerox IBM Cullinet AT&T Sony DiskMan Today Toyota Wal-Mart Dell Southwest Airlines Fidelity Canon Microsoft Oracle Cingular Apple iPod

10. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Disruption of Toyota From hyundaiusa.com May 5, 2013

11. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Disruption = affordability, accessibility Yesterday GM Dept. Stores Digital Equipment Delta JP Morgan Xerox IBM Cullinet AT&T Sony DiskMan Past, present, and future examples Today Toyota Wal-Mart Dell Southwest Airlines Fidelity Canon Microsoft Oracle Cingular Apple iPod Tomorrow Chery Internet retail Smart phones Air taxis ETFs Zink Linux Salesforce.com Skype Smart phones

12. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Is the innovation targeting people who are nonconsumers or overserved by existing products? Is the innovation not as good as existing products as judged by historical measures of performance? Is the innovation simpler to use, more convenient, and more affordable? Is there a technology enabler that can carry the new value proposition up-market? Is the technology paired with a business model innovation that allows it to be sustainable? Are existing providers motivated to ignore the new innovation and not threatened at the outset? How to identify a disruptive innovation Disruption is a relative phenomenon

13. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst How does disruptive innovation relate to education?

14. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Where does disruption not apply? Industries without an upwardly scalable technology are not disrupted

15. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Disruption in higher ed is just beginning

16. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Percentage of college students taking at least one online course, divided by students who did not take an online course Substitution follows the S-curve pattern Linear S-curve logarithms indicate growing online learning adoption 50% all students take at least 1 course online by 2015

17. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst What are online learning’s potential new value propositions?

18. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Potential benefits of online learning Personalization

19. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Learning environments modeled upon factories Current system was built to standardize

20. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst The “Swiss-cheese problem” in education Students develop holes in their learning

21. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Different learning needs at different times Long-term Memory Declarative EpisodicSemantic Procedural Skills Habits

22. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Personalization through modularity Benefits of online and blended learning

23. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Sound learning design boosts student outcomes Student achievement in online courses when administered by faculty in core 4.6 Student achievement in traditional classes taught by faculty in core 5.6 Student achievement in online courses when administered by focused online faculty 5.7

24. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Potential benefits of online learning Personalization Data and Feedback

25. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Deliver content to students Testing & assessment Progress to next grade, subject, or body of material Receive results Fixed-time, variable learning

26. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Offer learning experiences to students Testing & assessment Receive real-time interactive feedback Progress to next body of material Learning is fixed and time is variable Competency-based learning

27. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Potential benefits of online learning Individualization Teacher Effectiveness Data and Feedback

28. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Disaggregated staffing models Teacher Rigor Faculty Relationship Faculty Relevance Faculty Discipline Faculty New opportunities: Teacher specialization Extend the reach of best teachers Career growth opportunities

29. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Benefits of online and blended learning Teacher Effectiveness Individualization Data and Feedback Cost Control

30. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst How do existing organizations survive disruption?

31. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Disruption is not a technology problem Performance Time Different Measure of Performance Tabletop Radios, Floor-standing TVs Path taken by vacuum tube manufacturers Pocket radios Portable TVs Hearing aids

32. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst What is a business model? And why does it lock us in? PROCESSES: Ways of working together to address recurrent tasks in a consistent way: training, development, manufacturing, budgeting, planning, etc. REVENUE FORMULA: Assets & fixed cost structure, and the margins & velocity required to cover them THE VALUE PROPOSITION: A product that helps customers do more effectively, conveniently & affordably a job they’ve been trying to do RESOURCES: People, technology, products, facilities, equipment, brands, and cash that are required to deliver this value proposition to the targeted customers

33. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst What is a business model? And why does it lock us in? PROCESSES: Ways of working together to address recurrent tasks in a consistent way: training, development, manufacturing, budgeting, planning, etc. REVENUE FORMULA: Assets & fixed cost structure, and the margins & velocity required to cover them THE VALUE PROPOSITION: A product that helps customers do more effectively, conveniently & affordably a job they’ve been trying to do RESOURCES: People, technology, products, facilities, equipment, brands, and cash that are required to deliver this value proposition to the targeted customers Business units don’t evolve. Corporations do.

34. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Is the innovation targeting people who are nonconsumers or overserved by existing products? Is the innovation not as good as existing products as judged by historical measures of performance? Is the innovation simpler to use, more convenient, and more affordable? Is there a technology enabler that can carry the new value proposition up-market? Is the technology paired with a business model innovation that allows it to be sustainable? Are existing providers motivated to ignore the new innovation and not threatened at the outset? Much amuck about MOOCs Are MOOCs a disruptive innovation?

35. @christenseninst Disrupting College How Disruptive Innovation Can Deliver Quality and Affordability to Postsecondary Education Michael B. Horn mhorn@christenseninstitute.org Twitter: @christenseninst

36. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst How do existing organizations survive disruption?

37. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Understanding how users experience life “The customer rarely buys what the company thinks it is selling him.” Peter Drucker

38. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Three levels in the architecture of a Job What’s the job-to-be-done? (Each job has functional, emotional & social dimensions) What experiences in purchase & use must we provide to do the job perfectly? What and how to integrate?

39. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Recommendations for existing institutions Strategic Focus 1 →Focus, differentiate →Frame online learning as sustaining innovation to disrupt class →Apply correct business model for Job Strategic Focus 2 →Discovery-driven approach →Test & learn →Apply correct business model for Job →“Capabilities exchange”

40. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst The danger of trying to be all things to all people

41. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst 3 different kinds of business models Solution ShopsValue-Adding Process Businesses Facilitated User Network Diagnose and solve unstructured problems Add value to something that is incomplete or broken Enable exchange among participants Fee for service Fee for outcome Fee for transaction or membership; ad- supported

42. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Polishing Dept. Turning machines Hobbing department Tapping equipment Boring machines Annealing furnace Shipping Department Cut-off saws Path taken by product A A starts here Path taken by product B B starts here Storage

43. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst The Maysville plant

44. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst The danger of trying to be all things to all people

45. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst General purpose products disrupted job-by-job Performance Time Different Measure of Performance Major Metropolitan Newspapers Help me: Unload this stuff Find the right car Sell or buy a home Find the right job, or the right employees Kill commuting time productively Become well-informed Unwind at the end of the day Craig’s List AutoTrader.com Realtor.com Monster.com Metro; Blackberry CNN.com Unwind at the end of the day

46. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Harvard Business School is being disrupted Performance Time Different Measure of Performance $150,000 !! Part-time MBA Online “Garbage” 2-year MBA Corporate Universities: Competing against nonconsumption Help me solve this problem Teach me what I need to know to become a great manager Give me the credentials I need to get the next, more lucrative job Help me switch careers Help me join a prestigious network Brand Connections

47. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst The rise of unbundling

48. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst The right product architecture? It depends… Compete by improving speed, responsiveness and customization Performance Time Compete by improving functionality & reliability IBM Mainframes, Microsoft Windows Proprietary, interdependent architectures Dell PCs, Linux Modular open architectures

49. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Integration: Rise of the corporate university

50. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Modularity and targeted partnerships

51. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Integration shifts impact on computer industry Equipment Materials Components Product design Assembly Operating system Applications software Sales & distribution Field service Intel, Micron, Quantum, Komag, etc. Compaq, Dell, Gateway, Packard Bell Compaq Microsoft Word Perfect, Lotus, Borland, etc. CompUSA Independent contractors Microsoft Contract assemblers 1960 - 19801980 - 19901990 - 2000 Dell IBM Control DataDigital Equipment Monsanto, Sumitomo Metals, Shipley, etc. Teradyne, Nikon, Canon, Applied Materials, Millipore, etc. Apple Computer Micro- Center

52. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE # christenseninst Modularity of the university

53. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst How future universities may be built Unit of accreditation: The institution Unit of accreditation: the course A different type of university Standards: thru course acceptance

54. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Dell AsusTek Outsourcing can set disruption in motion Mother boards Computer assembly Supply chain & logistics Product design Brand Simple circuit boards Mother boardsComputer assembly Supply chain & logistics Product design Brand

55. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst The new kids on the block

56. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Benefits of blended learning for teachers 1.Eager students 2.Better information 3.Team teaching 4.Extended time with students 5.Individualized PD plans 6.Motivate hard to reach kids 7.More leadership roles 8.More earning power 9.Focus on deeper learning 10.New options to teach at home Source: Digital Learning Now!

57. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE @christenseninst Improved conditions Reduced isolation and new opportunities for collaboration Better student data Time efficiency Less grading and busy work Role differentiation Source: Digital Learning Now!

58. Clayton christensen institute @christenseninst Is the innovation targeting people who are nonconsumers or overserved by existing products? Is the innovation not as good as existing products as judged by historical measures of performance? Is the innovation simpler to use, more convenient, and more affordable? Is there a technology enabler that can carry the new value proposition up-market? Is the technology paired with a business model innovation that allows it to be sustainable? Are existing providers motivated to ignore the new innovation and not threatened at the outset? How to identify a disruptive innovation Disruption is a relative phenomenon