Presentation on theme: "Software Project Management"— Presentation transcript:
1Software Project Management Dr. Nguyen Hai QuanPhone:
2Capital Budgeting: Decision Criteria Overview and “vocabulary”MethodsPayback, discounted paybackNPVIRR, MIRRProfitability IndexUnequal livesEconomic life
3What is capital budgeting? Analysis of potential projects.Long-term decisions; involve large expenditures.Very important to firm’s future.
4Steps in Capital Budgeting Estimate cash flows (inflows & outflows).Assess risk of cash flows.Determine r = WACC for project.Evaluate cash flows.
5What is the difference between independent and mutually exclusive projects? Projects are:independent, if the cash flows of one are unaffected by the acceptance of the other.mutually exclusive, if the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted by the acceptance of the other.
6What is the payback period? The number of years required to recover a project’s cost,or how long does it take to get the business’s money back?
7Payback for Franchise L (Long: Most CFs in out years) 122.43CFt-100106010080Cumulative-100-90-3050PaybackL=2 + 30/ = years
8Franchise S (Short: CFs come quickly) 11.623CFt-100701005020Cumulative-100-302040PaybackS=/50 = years
9Strengths of Payback:1. Provides an indication of a project’s risk and liquidity.2. Easy to calculate and understand.Weaknesses of Payback:1. Ignores the TVM.2. Ignores CFs occurring after the payback period.
10Discounted Payback: Uses discounted rather than raw CFs. 12310%CFt-100106080PVCFt-1009.0949.5960.11Cumulative-100-90.91-41.3218.79Discountedpayback=/ = yrsRecover invest. + cap. costs in 2.7 yrs.
11NPV: Sum of the PVs of inflows and outflows. Cost often is CF0 and is negative.
13Calculator Solution Enter in CFLO for L: -100 10 60 80 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 NPV= = NPVL
14Rationale for the NPV Method NPV = PV inflows - Cost= Net gain in wealth.Accept project if NPV > 0.Choose between mutuallyexclusive projects on basis ofhigher NPV. Adds most value.
15Using NPV method, which franchise(s) should be accepted? If Franchise S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because NPVs > NPVL .If S & L are independent, accept both; NPV > 0.
16Internal Rate of Return: IRR 123CF0CF1CF2CF3CostInflowsIRR is the discount rate that forcesPV inflows = cost. This is the sameas forcing NPV = 0.
17NPV: Enter r, solve for NPV. IRR: Enter NPV = 0, solve for IRR.
18What’s Franchise L’s IRR? 123IRR = ?106080PV1PV2PV30 = NPVEnter CFs in CFLO, then press IRR:IRRL = 18.13%.IRRS = 23.56%.
19Find IRR if CFs are constant: 123IRR = ?-100404040INPUTS9.70%NI/YRPVPMTFVOUTPUTOr, with CFLO, enter CFs and pressIRR = 9.70%.
20Rationale for the IRR Method If IRR > WACC, then the project’s rate of return is greater than its cost-- some return is left over to boost stockholders’ returns.Example: WACC = 10%, IRR = 15%.Profitable.
21Decisions on Projects S and L per IRR If S and L are independent, accept both. IRRs > r = 10%.If S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because IRRS > IRRL .
22Construct NPV Profiles Enter CFs in CFLO and find NPVL andNPVS at different discount rates:r5101520NPVL5033197NPVS402920125(4)
26To Find the Crossover Rate 1. Find cash flow differences between the projects. See data at beginning of the case.2. Enter these differences in CFLO register, then press IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded to 8.7%.3. Can subtract S from L or vice versa, but better to have first CF negative.4. If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates the other.
27Two Reasons NPV Profiles Cross 1. Size (scale) differences. Smaller project frees up funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher the opportunity cost, the more valuable these funds, so high r favors small projects.2. Timing differences. Project with faster payback provides more CF in early years for reinvestment. If r is high, early CF especially good, NPVS > NPVL.
28Reinvestment Rate Assumptions NPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunity cost of capital).IRR assumes reinvest at IRR.Reinvest at opportunity cost, r, is more realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV should be used to choose between mutually exclusive projects.
29Managers like rates--prefer IRR to NPV comparisons Managers like rates--prefer IRR to NPV comparisons. Can we give them a better IRR?Yes, MIRR is the discount rate whichcauses the PV of a project’s terminalvalue (TV) to equal the PV of costs.TV is found by compounding inflowsat WACC.Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflows are reinvested at WACC.
30MIRR for Franchise L (r = 10%) 12310%-100.010.060.080.010%66.012.110%MIRR = 16.5%158.1$100 =$158.1(1+MIRRL)3-100.0TV inflowsPV outflowsMIRRL = 16.5%
31To find TV with 10B, enter in CFLO: CF0 = 0, CF1 = 10, CF2 = 60, CF3 = 80I = 10NPV = = PV of inflows.Enter PV = , N = 3, I = 10, PMT = 0.Press FV = = FV of inflows.Enter FV = , PV = -100, PMT = 0, N = 3.Press I = 16.50% = MIRR.
32Why use MIRR versus IRR?MIRR correctly assumes reinvestment at opportunity cost = WACC. MIRR also avoids the problem of multiple IRRs.Managers like rate of return comparisons, and MIRR is better for this than IRR.
33Normal Cash Flow Project: Cost (negative CF) followed by aseries of positive cash inflows.One change of signs.Nonnormal Cash Flow Project:Two or more changes of signs.Most common: Cost (negativeCF), then string of positive CFs,then cost to close project.Nuclear power plant, strip mine.
34Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year 12345NNN-+++++N-++++-NN---+++N+++---N-++-+-NN
35Pavilion Project: NPV and IRR? 12r = 10%-8005,000-5,000Enter CFs in CFLO, enter I = 10.NPV =IRR = ERROR. Why?
36We got IRR = ERROR because there are 2 IRRs. Nonnormal CFs--two sign changes. Here’s a picture:NPV ProfileNPVIRR2 = 400%450r100400IRR1 = 25%-800
37Logic of Multiple IRRs1. At very low discount rates, the PV of CF2 is large & negative, so NPV < 0.2. At very high discount rates, the PV of both CF1 and CF2 are low, so CF0 dominates and again NPV < 0.3. In between, the discount rate hits CF2 harder than CF1, so NPV > 0.4. Result: 2 IRRs.
38Could find IRR with calculator: 1. Enter CFs as before.2. Enter a “guess” as to IRR by storing the guess. Try 10%:10 STOIRR = 25% = lower IRRNow guess large IRR, say, 200:200 STOIRR = 400% = upper IRR
39When there are nonnormal CFs and more than one IRR, use MIRR: 12-800,0005,000,000-5,000,000PV 10% = -4,932,TV 10% = 5,500,MIRR = 5.6%
40Accept Project P? NO. Reject because MIRR = 5.6% < r = 10%. Also, if MIRR < r, NPV will be negative: NPV = -$386,777.
41S and L are mutually exclusive and will be repeated. r = 10% S and L are mutually exclusive and will be repeated. r = 10%. Which is better? (000s)1234Project S:(100)Project L:6033.56033.533.533.5
42S LCF , ,000CF , ,500NjINPV , ,190NPVL > NPVS. But is L better?Can’t say yet. Need to perform common life analysis.
43Note that Project S could be repeated after 2 years to generate additional profits. Can use either replacement chain or equivalent annual annuity analysis to make decision.
44Franchise S with Replication: Replacement Chain Approach (000s)Franchise S with Replication:1234Franchise S:(100)6060(100)(40)6060NPV = $7,547.
45Or, use NPVs:12344,1323,4157,5474,13210%Compare to Franchise L NPV = $6,190.
46If the cost to repeat S in two years rises to $105,000, which is best If the cost to repeat S in two years rises to $105,000, which is best? (000s)1234Franchise S:(100)6060(105)(45)6060NPVS = $3,415 < NPVL = $6,190.Now choose L.
47Consider another project with a 3-year life Consider another project with a 3-year life. If terminated prior to Year 3, the machinery will have positive salvage value.Year123CF($5,000)2,1002,0001,750Salvage Value$5,0003,1002,000
48CFs Under Each Alternative (000s) 1231. No termination2. Terminate 2 years3. Terminate 1 year(5)2.15.2241.75
49Assuming a 10% cost of capital, what is the project’s optimal, or economic life? NPV(no) = -$123.NPV(2) = $215.NPV(1) = -$273.
50Conclusions The project is acceptable only if operated for 2 years. A project’s engineering life does not always equal its economic life.
51Choosing the Optimal Capital Budget Finance theory says to accept all positive NPV projects.Two problems can occur when there is not enough internally generated cash to fund all positive NPV projects:An increasing marginal cost of capital.Capital rationing
52Increasing Marginal Cost of Capital Externally raised capital can have large flotation costs, which increase the cost of capital.Investors often perceive large capital budgets as being risky, which drives up the cost of capital.(More...)
53If external funds will be raised, then the NPV of all projects should be estimated using this higher marginal cost of capital.
54Capital RationingCapital rationing occurs when a company chooses not to fund all positive NPV projects.The company typically sets an upper limit on the total amount of capital expenditures that it will make in the upcoming year.(More...)
55Reason: Companies want to avoid the direct costs (i. e Reason: Companies want to avoid the direct costs (i.e., flotation costs) and the indirect costs of issuing new capital.Solution: Increase the cost of capital by enough to reflect all of these costs, and then accept all projects that still have a positive NPV with the higher cost of capital.(More...)
56Reason: Companies don’t have enough managerial, marketing, or engineering staff to implement all positive NPV projects.Solution: Use linear programming to maximize NPV subject to not exceeding the constraints on staffing.(More...)
57Reason: Companies believe that the project’s managers forecast unreasonably high cash flow estimates, so companies “filter” out the worst projects by limiting the total amount of projects that can be accepted.Solution: Implement a post-audit process and tie the managers’ compensation to the subsequent performance of the project.