Presentation on theme: "Groupe d'Economie Mondiale New challenging issues : Strategies for the EC-Turkey Customs Union Patrick A. Messerlin Groupe d’Economie."— Presentation transcript:
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale New challenging issues : Strategies for the EC-Turkey Customs Union Patrick A. Messerlin Groupe d’Economie Mondiale (GEM) Yeditepe University & Economic Development Foundation Istanbul May 2010
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Overview Assessing the situation: the global environment. Assessing the situation: the TC-Turkey Customs Union (ECTCU). Options for strategies (for the next 5 years).
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Global environment (1/3) Trade: back on track. Trade regime: resilient WTO, but uncertainty on the Doha Round. Macroeconomic situations: worrisome in the EC. Global governance: diminishing vs. emerging giant syndromes. Domestic governance: “tyranny of tiny majorities”
Global environment (2/3) Groupe d'Economie Mondiale
Global environment (3/3) Groupe d'Economie Mondiale
ECTCU environment: the EC (1/2) The EC needs a “drastic review” of the following assumptions: The bigger, the better. Internal Market and the acquis communautaire. The euro as “the” discipline, regulatory reforms. Institutional structure. Time to value our neighbors.
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale ECTCU environment: the EC (2/2) Does the acquis delivers?
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale ECTCU Environment: Turkey The functioning of the ECTCU The “Global Europe” strategy and Turkey Turkey and the core emerging economies
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Options for strategies: the EC Would the EC be an active partner vis-à- vis Turkey? Doubtful. Need for a “drastic review”. Deep shocks from the financial crisis. Crisis concentrated on Mediterranean EC Member States. Volatile Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia = > no Ostpolitk. Focus on Balkans: small but very difficult.
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Options for strategies: Turkey (1/2) Are stricter international rules the solution? Doubtful at time of tectonic shifts in international relations. The “best EC Member State” policy Industrial goods: Turkish trade policy (tariffs, AD) Bilaterals: expand in Balkans; “consolidate” the other existing bilaterals in one FTA; develop the maximum tariff approach with ECOTA.
Options for strategies: Turkey (2/2) Farm and food products (FTA option) Farm products. Food products and fisheries. Services: “mutual evaluation” (Services Directive) Use the acquis for reviewing its own laws: take the pro-competitive provisions, screen between norm-setting provisions (cost- benefit analysis). A plurilateral approach? An approach beneficial for the EC itself. Groupe d'Economie Mondiale