Presentation on theme: "Peter Hooper Chief Economist Deutsche Bank Securities Prepared for XXV Meeting of the Latin American Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries May."— Presentation transcript:
Peter Hooper Chief Economist Deutsche Bank Securities Prepared for XXV Meeting of the Latin American Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries May 18, 2007 Outlook for US Economy and the Fed Subprime stress vs. inflation risk DISCLAIMER AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION ARE LOCATED ON THE LAST PAGE
2 Overview Fed’s central expectation: Goldilocks. Downside risks to growth have risen: Housing sector and subprime stresses still to come. Capital spending. Upside risks to inflation still present, but softening: Tight labor market. Energy prices. Inflation expectations. Rent inflation. Fed outlook: On hold for now, but rate cut before year quite plausible.
3 I. Growth Risks
4 US GDP Growth Outlook Source: BEA, DB Global Markets Research 2008 y/y forecast y/y average Q2 Q3 Q4 Contributions
5 Source: Census, BEA, DB Global Markets Research Home construction still in decline Demographically driven demand Plus demolitions
6 Excess supply of homes has risen sharply Source: Census, NBER, DB Global Markets Research Housing vacancies as % of all homes (LS) Months supply of new homes for sale (RS)
7 Source: UM ICH, NAR, DB Global Markets Research Housing affordability has begun to improve Current conditions for buying houses improving too (rs) Housing affordability (ls) turning up
8 But lending standards tightening (Subprime fallout I) % of banks tightening standards Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey, DB Global Markets Research All mortgages Subprime
9 How important is the subprime market? Subprime fixed 4% Alt-A fixed 4% Mortgage debt outstanding end 2006 ($10.0 trillion) Alt-A adj 7% Subprime adjustable 10% Source:MBA,DB Global Markets Research Subprime adjustable 20% Subprime fixed 4% Alt-A adj 10% Alt-A fixed 4% Mortgage originations ($2.6 trillion per year)
10 Home foreclosures will soar (Subprime fallout II) Source: MBA,DB Global Markets Research Subprime ? Foreclosures Started Total Prime
11 Home price inflation dropping sharply Source:OFHEO,NAR,DB Global Markets Research
12 Source: FRB, DB Global Markets Research Impact of lower home prices on consumers Consumer spending Income Financial wealth Housing wealth Composition of household assets 2006 Interest rates
13 Stock market offsetting home price drop, so far… Source: OFHEO,WSJ,BEA, DB Global Markets Research House price/income (OFHEO) Stock market/income (Wilshire 5000)
14 Source: BEA, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Saving rate should rise as wealth/income falls Forecast
15 Source: BEA, Census, DB Global Markets Research Capital spending trend has weakened.
16 II. Inflation Risks
17 Source: BEA,DB Global Markets Research Core inflation still “somewhat elevated” Fed’s Comfort zone Consumer prices ex food and energy (Core PCE)
18 Inflation outlook and risks Core consumer price inflation expected to decline, due to: 1. Easing of labor cost pressures but will employment growth decline? and will compensation growth ease? 2. Decline in energy price pass through but and gasoline prices rising sharply dollar falling and non-oil import prices accelerating 3. Gravitational pull from well anchored inflation expectations but are they low enough, and are they really anchored? 4. Decline in rental inflation as vacancy rates rise but subprime stress may slow that process
19 Source: BLS,CBO,DB Global Markets Research 1. Labor market looks tight but should ease ahead Estimated NAIRU range
20 Employment typically lags construction activity Source: BEA,,BLS DB Global Markets Research
21 Labor cost inflation running high for comfort Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research
22 2. Oil has leveled off but gasoline prices surging Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research West Texas Crude (RS) Retail Gasoline (LS) Cents/Gallon
23 3. How much gravitational pull from expectations? Source: U.Mich,Bloomberg,Phil Fed, DB Global Markets Research Top of Fed’s comfort zone for core CPI
24 Source: BLS,BEA, DB US Economics Research 4. Rent has elevated core inflation
25 What will get the Fed to ease Fed currently has a bias toward tightening. To move to neutral, Fed will need to see core inflation move into the comfort zone and labor market pressure ease (unemployment rate move up higher or labor cost inflation moderate). To cut rates, Fed will need to see core inflation move further into comfort zone and unemployment rate rise significantly. Source: FRB, DB Global Markets Research
26 Risks: How Things Could Turn Out Differently Recession scenario Subprime stress spreads, residential investment and home prices plunge. Consumer confidence/spending and labor markets weaken substantially. Fed cuts rates aggressively, setting stage for stronger growth in 2008 and beyond. Inflation pressures build further Housing bottoms, consumer spending remains buoyant. Labor cost and consumer prices accelerate. Fed raises rates, setting stage for slowdown in 2008.
27 Inflation risk in the longer term: the political dimension Barney Frank Wright Patman Era Consumer prices (PCE) less food and energy Source: BEA, DB Global Markets Research
28 Social Security spending nearing take-off Source: CBO, DB Global Markets Research
29 Medical spending likely to soar Social Security 2-1/2% 1% Assumes medical inflation premium of: Source: CBO, DB Global Markets Research
30 Conclusions Downside risks to growth have increased, centered on housing sector and potential spillovers. Upside risks to inflation remain but may be starting to ease. Slow growth and receding inflation risks should eventually elicit rate cut, by late Longer-term risks to US rates lie to the upside.
31 Peter Hooper Managing Director, Chief Economist Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Peter Hooper oversees a team of economists that analyze and forecast developments in the US economy and financial markets. Dr. Hooper joined Deutsche Bank Securities in the fall of 1999 as Chief US Economist, and was appointed Chief Economist in Dr. Hooper frequently comments on US economic and financial developments in the news media. Prior to joining the firm, Dr. Hooper enjoyed a distinguished 26-year career at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. He held numerous positions at the Fed, including as an economist on the FOMC and as Deputy Director of the Division of International Finance. In doing so, he developed an informed view of the Fed's policy making process. Dr. Hooper earned a BA in Economics (cum laude) from Princeton University and an MA and Ph.D. in Economics from University of Michigan. He has published numerous books, journal articles, and reviews on economics and policy analysis.