Presentation on theme: "Urban Poverty Issues and Antipoverty programs"— Presentation transcript:
1Urban Poverty Issues and Antipoverty programs Prof. David E. ClarkWeeks #11-12
2Why Study Poverty in Urban Economics? Spatial concentrationUrban vs. RuralCentral city vs. suburbanThe correct policy recommendation depends on a correct analysis of the problem.
3Defining Poverty One Definition Problems with definition An individual is poor if he/she has little money income.Problems with definitionThis is an absolute measure vs. a relative oneConsiders only money income, but not assetsDoesn’t consider investments in human capitalMore ideal definitionAn individual is poor if he/she has little money income, (relative to others in U.S.), few assets, and no prospect for substantially larger income.
4Defining Poverty - Government Poverty defined by the Social Security Administration, based on an absolute poverty line (there are 48 of these depending on family sizes and number of kids below 18).Based on the expense associated with a nutritious meal.A survey done in 1950’s established that a nutritious meal costs approximately 1/3rd of annual budget of poor.Thus, define nutritious diet and multiply by three to get the poverty line.
5Defining Poverty - Government If your income falls below some threshold, you are in poverty.Most frequently cited is the line for a family of 4 persons.There are actually 48 poverty thresholds.Look at Census web site
6Components of income Excluded Included - cash income In-kind transfers (e.g., housing and food subsidies).Net worthTaxes and other payments.Permanent income.Does not adjust for under-reporting of income, believed to be high in the poor.No regional variation in prices.Included - cash incomeEarnings from W&SSocial Security, SSI, public assistance.Dividends, interest on savings and investments rental income, estates, trusts, royalties.Unempl. comp, workers comp., vet. benefits.pensions, annuities, alimony, child support, periodic income
7Inflationary Indexing Since 1969, the poverty line has been indexed by the CPI.CPI overstates inflation. Why?Implications for measurement of level of poverty?
9Magnitude of Poverty in the U.S. Year #poor Percent of totalmil. approx. 50%mil %mil %mil %mil %mil %
10Influence of Definition Census has been experimenting with alternative measures of poverty.Look at web site:Using an alternative definition of income that added the value of means-tested noncash transfers (e.g. food stamps,housing subsidies, and medicaid) to post-tax cash income from the private and government sectors would result in 29.0 million people being poor, and a corresponding poverty rate of 10.3 percent in 2001.
11Profile of Poor: Table 14.3 Who are they? Where are they located? Minority concentration.Female headed householdsHeavy burden on childrenUneducated (below HS degree).Where are they located?Metro vs. ruralCentral cities vs. suburbs
12Look at Underlying Causes of Poverty Causality necessary to identify appropriate public policy to mitigate problem.
13Macro and regional economic stagnation Evidence suggests that urban unemployment is heavily influenced by economic growth.Recessions are increasingly regional in nature.Minorities suffer most during slow growth periods?Earnings disparity between blacks and whites increases.Expansionary macro policy can be used.Imprecise policy tool.Potential tradeoff with inflation.
14Labor Market Discrimination against Central City Minorities Earnings functions nearly always identify racial differences in earnings.Minorities earn less even after controlling for education and experience.Growth of earnings lower for minorities as well.EarningsWhiteMinorityAge
15Discrimination Costly (assuming equal productivity) White Labor MarketMinority Labor MarketSWWSWWWMDDLLLWLM
16Potential explanations Is all else equal?Measuring educational qualityMeasuring effortStatistical discriminationRace or ethnicity is used as a signal.Signal may be efficient.Use of approach is clearly inequitable.
17Demographic Explanations Female headed households are more likely to be living in poverty.Reasons:Most are single-parent households so full-time work frequently not possible.Female wages lower than male wagesOnly about 1/3 of single mothers receive child support.What has been happening to this over time?Very strong growth
18Spatial Mismatch between Jobs and Employment Poor are concentrated in cities.McKinney and Schnare (1989 Journal of Urban Economics) find that overall patterns of integregation have improved slightly over periodPrimarily due to mobility of black households into higher income neighborhood strata where exposure to whites is greater.Within neighborhood income strata, no change.Jobs increasingly decentralizing.
19Income constraints However, look at evidence from Margo article. Holding constant other factors, nonwhites more likely to live in central city.Study by Kain (1985) showed that if location choices were exclusively by nonracial factors, we would expect twice as many blacks living in suburbs.
20Prejudice and Discrimination Prejudice is an attitude based on race; Discrimination is an action where people treated differently based on race.Question:If blacks prefer to live near whites, even if whites don’t prefer to live near blacks, why don’t we observe leap-frogging behavior?Possibly tied to discrimination in housing markets.
21Evidence on Housing Discrimination? Some evidence that white buyers, renters, borrowers have been treated differently historically than black counterparts, although improvements have been noted.Fair housing audits are used for real estate agents, landlords, lenders.Steering behavior by real estate agents may be based on using race as a proxy for preferences of individuals (i.e., statistical discrimination).Again, discrimination is costly to seller, landlord, lending institution.
22Exclusionary ZoningExclusionary zoning has also had an effect on residential land use.Although it has been argued that this is used to protect home owners from incompatible land uses and fiscal free-riding, it keeps minorities out.Techniques:Minimal square footage, minimum lot size, minimum frontage, etc. excludes low income from neighborhoods.
23Regardless of cause, segregation exists. Look at the consequences!
24Does spatial mismatch explain poverty? Evidence has been mixed.Some (e.g., Ellwood) point to racial factors as alternative factors.Others Ihlanfeldt, Sjoquist, Leonard suggest that it is an important influence.Next time, we look at Ihlanfeldt article.
25Public PolicySince the Great Society, spending on anti-poverty policies has increased dramatically, and its level in 1987 was over $100 billion.There are many anti-poverty programs, and we cannot do justice to the literature in a short presentation.We examine just a few actual policies.Focus is on understanding broad economic issues.
26Macroeconomic PolicyGoal is stimulate the demand side of the local labor marketLow income households (especially minorities) suffer relatively more during recessions.Macroeconomic expansionary policy is too broad a brush to apply to specific geographic regions.May conflict with other macroeconomic goals.General policy direction - avoid deep national recessions.
27Stimulating Local Job Growth Alternatively, local policy makers can stimulate local demand for labor.Bartik (1993) “Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or the Original Residents” Regional Studies, 1993, Vol. 27(4),Approximately 1/4 of new jobs from local growth increases the labor force participation rates of local residents.Minorities benefit most from growth.Higher wage industries provide greater employment benefits for local residents.
28Hysteresis EffectBartik argues that job growth has LR effects on unemployment and participation rates due to hysteresis effects.SR job experience increases human capital for local residents.Acquired skills increase self-confidence and reputation from employers.Local residents more employable in LR.
29Training ProgramsThis type of program is aimed at the supply side of the labor market.Goal is to develop skills that increase earning capacity of the poor.Predominating notion during the 1960’s.Strong growth in 1960’s, moderate growth in 1970’s, decline during 1980’s and 1990’s.Some welfare reforms give limited training to current welfare recipients.
30Ashenfelter (1978)Orley Ashenfelter wrote a paper which appeared in Review of Economics and Statistics, in 1978.Examined workers completing government-sponsored job training course in 1964.Examined panel data to analyze the incomes earned through a 5 year post-training period.
31Findings Compared trainees with a control group Findings: Courses produced increase in the earnings of all trainee groups in period immediately following course completion.Increase for both white and black women was $300-$600 per year (in about 1970), and did not decrease in 5 years after training.Increase for men was similar, but fell by 50% over the 5 year period.
32Other insights in literature Primary success is on programs which target youth.Some success in raising earnings for women.Less success with men.Earnings (wage*hours) increased by increasing hours.
33Strengths and weaknesses Politically more attractive than othersHave rebounded as a result of welfare reform.Some evidence of cost effectivenessWeaknessesMore expensive than other policiesIf supply of skills increases and demand is low, may not be effectiveRequires coordination of demand and supply side.
34Income Support Programs Examples of direct income transfersPublic assistance includes AFDC, SSI for aged and blind, Veterans Pensions, General assistance.Social insurance includes Social Security, unemployment insurance, workers compensation, veterans compensationRationale:The person him/herself is the best judge as to how to increase utility.
35Welfare loss from payments-in-kind vs. payments-in-cash FoodDirect income support parallelshifts the budget lineF**F*U2U1O**Other GoodsO*
36Scenario #1: High food consumers Payment-in-kind shiftsonly a portion of budgetline.FoodNo consequence for heavy food consumersF**F*U2U1O**Other GoodsO*
38There is some empirical support for Scenario #2 Smeeding (1982) found each dollar of foodstamps was worth $0.97 to recipients.Blanchard et. al. (1982) found replacement of food stamps with cash transfers did not effect food consumption.
39Public WelfareAFDC is probably the most publicly visible income support program.Means testedPayment made by federal government.Can be augmented by state governmentAverage payments vary substantially between states. e.g., in a year when Calif. average payments were $553/month, Alabama awarded $114/month.
40Consequences Purported welfare migration between states Destabilizes familiesBenefits are removed when earnings reach a particular level.Disincentive to work
41Labor-Leisure Choice Income Slope of budget line=dI/dleisure I1
42Impact of Welfare on Budget Constraint Incomewage=0Assumes 100%takeback rateIBreakevenIG=Income grantLeisureLabor
43Equilibrium point Income Assumes 100% takeback rate IG=Income grant LeisureLabor
46Breakeven point Define Ie=earned income t=takeback rate Grant is taxed at Ie*tBreakeven point is thus the point where Ie*t=IG.Solving for I gives: Ie=IG/tThus, if t=1.0 then breakeven I=IGIf t=0.5, then Ie=IG/0.5=2*IG
47Evidence on Welfare Impacts There is a substantial literature here and we simply provide overview here.Work disincentives fairly well established.Strong evidence of destabilization of families.Mixed evidence on welfare migration
48Welfare reforms Wisconsin was pioneer Current reforms e.g., W2, Edfair Phase out for income guarantee.Required work participation after 24 months of assistanceAssistance eliminated after 60 monthsPeriod of training and child-care assistance
49Has welfare reform been successful? Timing of reforms was fortunateLengthy expansion during 90’sWelfare rolls fell substantially52% decline (94 –99)Still concentrated in largest citiesMarket effectsWill lower the market wage for low-skilledBartik (1998) estimates up to 8% drop in earnings for low-skilled women.Effect on incentives
50Problem of Urban Ghettos Two policies have been suggestedDispersalDevelopment
51Dispersal argumentsGhetto is a place that is fundamentally ugly, and it fosters activities that are considered “unacceptable” in nonghetto areas.Ghetto represents a negative externality for the MSA.Ghetto aggravates and accentuates urban problems.Problems of the Ghetto:Spatial Mismatch, and Blight-flight process only makes the situation worse.Low educational quality in city schools.
52Policy Proposal: Ghetto Dispersal Improve efficiency of labor market (informational systems for suburban jobs).Create suburban housing glut for low income.Suburbanize even if its at the expense of integration.Subsidize suburban schools to take ghetto residents.
53Counter-arguments Dispersal is not feasible. Disruptive to integration goals.Creating mini-ghettos will only create new pockets of poverty in the suburbs.Development of ghetto is preferable.
54Case for Development: Economic Multiplier effects.External agglomeration economiesOne success lowers costs to others in region.Demonstration effectsLeadership effectsKeep your most talented and ambitions in the community.
55Political Case for Development Source of leadership for political struggles.Foster interaction between races.Less likely to have backlash.Politically more feasible.Viewed as self-help.
56Development Techniques Greenhouse industriesPool resources in CDC’s.Enterprise Zones
57Cutler and Glaeser Article “Are Ghetto’s good or Bad?”Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997, p